1 Series replacements?

At least according to this Korean website (salt grains, please), the upgraded 5D would also hit 5 fps, while the new 1Ds (w/22mp's and a 3" LCD--to be announced in April) would be at THREE. ??? I guess this is where we talk about the limitations of the technology again...

Who's to say.

What an interesting thread! Counting electrons??? Hell, I'm just trying to get every shot in focus!

I can image the folks at Canon reading this thread. To some of the speculations they're saying, "Damn, how'd they figure that one out!". To others they reply, "Oh sure! . . . not."

I has made for some interesting reading.

Asher,

I like your use of "moire filter" instead of AA. More descriptive.

Joel Slack said:

Oh, and they also mention a 10-24 f/2.8 L, a BLACK 400 f/4 L IS, as well as a black 100-400 F/4 L IS (III), a 200 f/2.8 L IS, and a 24-70 f/2.8 L IS. And a weather-proofed 5D with 16 mp's.

Click to expand...

Have you seen the Sigma 12-24 (being the only FF ultrawide zoom)? Now imagine that in f/2.8...

I am very afraid of things that may come this year, and so is my wife

Some are saying that Canon will be announcing something next week. I truly feel your pain, Stan. (Well. My wife feels your wife's pain, to be more accurate)

While I'm not attempting to turn this thread into little more than the latest internet rumor clearinghouse, I've seen a recent post on another camera forum made by what looks like a reputable photographer, who I believe to be an Englishman living/working in Bangkok. It caught my eye for 3 reasons. First, it sounds remarkably similiar to the general description of the camera I mentioned here a couple of posts back. Second, I checked the websites listed by the forum poster (as personal pages), and he seems legit (which, of itself, means nothing). And third, it was not posted as an "I heard this from a guy at the local camera shop" remark, but made with the complete assurance of certainty. (Fourth, I really really want it to be accurate).

He says to watch for the announcement as though it may happen in the next couple of days, though that might be inferring more than he intended. The title of his post was "1DsTC to deliver soon," TC meaning "True Color," employing a true-color processor (?). Here are the specifics:

- 16.2 MP (Equiv 32MP bayer sensor)
- 8fps (buffer 32 RAW, unlimited large Jpg)
- ISO50-6400 (custom function ISO18 and ISO12800)
- Dust prevention system (upgraded 400D model)
- full frame
- 8.2MP mode for sports shooters (uses full sensor, but @ 8.2MP)
- Mirror lockup programmable button(s)
- 11 shot bracketing (available 11,7,5 & 3)
- Personal and custom functions all available in camera
- EXIF data from lenses including calulated focus distance
- Focus spots can be seen in previews
- Preview screen autorotates depending on camera orientation

So, in effect, it would be a marriage of the current Ds and D performance and capability. The other little bit of information that lends credence to the report (in my mind) is the completely novel camera name. 1DsTC? Everyone else is saying "1DsMkIII" or some such thing. These are insignificant elements, taken individually, but it seems, to me, a bit more credible than the average Chinese/Korean/Philippino (whatever) website from which these rumors tend to originate. Either someone has completely buffaloed this guy, or he is playing an elaborate trick, or it's the real thing. I also find the specificity of the details (bracketing, e.g.) to be more substantive than the average rumor.

I hope I'm not lowering the bar for this site by posting such things. You have to admit, it's pretty compelling to think about. That ISO range in itself is knocking my virtual socks off...

Well Joel,

As of June 2006, I had info on a 1Ds model with 22MP another with 24MP. It seems that Canon tries out a number of iterations before deciding.

So it is perfectly feasable that the new camera would be using the technology they have had for CMOS 3 layer RGB sensors and be keeping them large, they could do pretty well. To go to these very high ISOs it makes sense to keep the senssels as large as possible.

I wonder why they don't also have a pixel shift mode to really do wonders for architectural photography and fine art copying for museums etc.

What ever they do, I'm also hoping for a new super wide angle lens!

Asher

The same fellow has been making follow-up posts, some of which have involved the process employed by the new sensor (and it IS a new sensor). I have to say, he sounds utterly credible. Reference has been made to a Canon sensor patent received in 2002. He is incredibly certain. So he's either enjoying the game, nuts, or telling the truth.

Well Joel,

Although I personally have not held an unreleased Canon camera, I am sure there are several doing the rounds. However, that doesn't mean that any of these models will actually make it to market.

Also, should a new camera with RGB capability in each pixel well materialize on store shelves, that, in itself, does not exclude the possibility of Canon also bringing out the 21-24MP 5 frame per second 1DsIII.

Asher

The general mood seems to indicate something big from Canon soon.

Knowing myself, I better lash myself to a mast out of reach of plastic and bank accounts, like Jason did to resist the lure of the Sirens.

Asher Kelman said:

Well Joel,

Although I personally have not held an unreleased Canon camera, I am sure there are several doing the rounds. However, that doesn't mean that any of these models will actually make it to market.

Also, should a new camera with RGB capability in each pixel well materialize on store shelves, that, in itself, does not exclude the possibility of Canon also bringing out the 21-24MP 5 frame per second 1DsIII.

Asher

Click to expand...

From what I have heard, this is not the Big Dog DsII upgrade everyone is expecting; that is rumored to come in the fall, perhaps being announced in the Spring. I agree, there have probably been many demos that will never see the light of day for this reason or that.

Rumors

I've been watching that thread on DPreview, too. Rob is a Kiwi, not English or Aussie. He has been around a long time, a Canon user and I believe he got into using Phase MF backs a while ago as well. Seems a great guy, from his posts, but I don't recall him being a fount of inside info in the past; his post suprised me - but there's no telling who he visited on a recent N. American trip, or who he sat next to on the plane....

I think he's acquainted with "Paul Pope" who has leaked some valid info in past years - some of you may recognise that name...

Edit: Rob's a member here, too...http://www.openphotographyforums.com/forums/search.php?searchid=42836

Thanks William. I did find out subsequently that he was from Down Under. It was the out-of-the-blue nature of his post that got me wondering, since he seems very grounded and not prone to wild speculation in any of this other posts. He has either had contact with someone testing a mock-up (which may or may not make it into circulation), or got some inside information somehow, or was totally hoodwinked by someone. (or is playing an elaborate game)

Turns out this rumor was a complete hoax, a joke by the originator on everyone who puts any stock in such rumors. C'est la vie!

Well, the excitement on other boards is building to a frenzy. A certain segment seems to think something really phenomenal is coming, others see only slight bumps to current models (which ones and when, nobody has a clue), and others are so angry about the absolute lack of info (really! they're angry!) that they are singing the praises of Nikon. Very strange atmosphere out there.

I tend to think that the utter and complete bubble of silence bodes well for we Canon users.

Joel Slack said:

I tend to think that the utter and complete bubble of silence bodes well for we Canon users.

Click to expand...

I have no inside knowledge whatsoever, but I would be VERY surprised if a new semi-pro or pro Canon wasn't announced shortly, very surprised indeed

David

héhé, you're teasing us!
why would you beleive so?

Now if I could just remember the link to this site I found a while ago.

Will,

I've seen nearly every PhotoShopped image known to man, and I've never seen this picture. How old is it? Where did you see it? Might cause quite a stir over on some other board...mind if I borrow it?

Someone is going to get his fingers whacked! This should not have been disclosed before the deadline!

Asher

17mp, 1.25x crop, 8.5 fps, RAW buffer fill to 25 images, anti-dust technology a la 400D (but improved), WiFi, better signal-to-noise ratio, and a lighter/higher cap. battery (slightly reducing weight) are the main points.

Click to expand...

Anyone waiting for this specs. will be basically waiting for ever.

The above means SQRT(28.7x19.1/17) = 5.7 microns / pixel, and we already know what happens if we opt going this way (Nikon D2X).

Even today, the differences between 6.4 and 8.2 microns are fairly visible. You just need to push the cams. a bit, and you will see it.

That 32MP monster would really mess me up. because I know Canon will have the quality if they actually did that, but I was really looking for higher FPS then what I have now with at least the same MP.

I have a little trouble believing in 32MP unless they make the sensor bigger though. At 32MP I would suspect it would be limited to ISO 400 before the noise exceeds my threshold of routine tolerance. With my 1DsMkII, ISO1600 is my threshold (we will ignore that I avoid shooting above ISO100 if it can be helped ). But if they could get 32MP with at least the quality of the 1DsMkII across the range then that might override my desire for higher FPS.

In either case, I suspect I will know the truth within a few weeks and will make my decision based on the facts. I know what I need in any camera I buy, but had certain expectations that looked likely to meet and that 32MP beast would fairly significantly exceed one, while missing another. I am in the market for a 1-series upgrade to my 1DsMkII, but only if it does what I need at a price I have money set aside for.

And I just realised that the 4:3 format could be refering to a X2 camera (two 35mm sensors together on the long side ), missed that on the first pass.

Tim Dolan (Longwatcher) said:

And I just realised that the 4:3 format could be refering to a X2 camera (two 35mm sensors together on the long side ), missed that on the first pass.

Click to expand...

Not unless they want to come out with a new line of lenses for it. You can't cover 36x48 with existing 35mm lenses.

My own feeling is that we will see a 21 or 24 MP 1 series body.
I'd hope with bracket focus!

Asher

That's my feeling, too, Asher. (and most other speculations I've seen) Actually, 24 might even be pushing it a little.

Tim Dolan (Longwatcher) said:

That 32MP monster would really mess me up. because I know Canon will have the quality if they actually did that...

I have a little trouble believing in 32MP unless they make the sensor bigger though. At 32MP I would suspect it would be limited to ISO 400 before the noise exceeds my threshold of routine tolerance.

Click to expand...

At such photosite-sizes, yes, ISO400 is where the party would most likely end, assuming 36x24mm form-factor. Now, if we stick to 7.2micron-pitch (same as 1Ds MarkII), that would require something like 51mm*34mm to stay at 3:2 aspect ratio, or something like 40mmx40mm if we want to be innovative. However, if we stick to 8.2micron, things will get really big, overall.

I know what I need in any camera I buy, but had certain expectations that looked likely to meet and that 32MP beast would fairly significantly exceed one, while missing another.

Click to expand...

In general terms, I am a firm believer of quality over quantity, and a special, performance&efficiency oriented system, promoted like a 10Mpixels x 10microns x 10 frames/sec with 14 or 16 bit Analog-to-Digital depth, and manufactured under today's standards and materials, will be a photographic dream (still assume Quantum Efficiency continues to stay around 25%-28%).

The actual dynamic range, signal-to-noise ratio, and sharpness/acuity that you will get from such 10x10x10 sensor, will probably surpass today's 12Mpixels sensors from Canon, and will easily get into 14-16 Mpixels' territory with upsampling solutions such as SizeFixer XL/SLR + Super-Resolution iterative, self-optimizing algorithms. Yet, the files will be small (with more advanced lossless compression for .CR2 files), easy to "stretch", and this sensor will belong to a realm of performance that, in general terms, will be almost innaccessible to any other snesor out-there, putting spatial resolution aside. This will be a true jewel, which will exude-and-ooze engineering excellence, all over the place.

As for 1.255x form-factor, it is not clear what Canon will do. But the best that could happen for the 1D MarkII-N will be basically re-cycling the 1Ds MarkII's 16.7 Mpixels sensor, staying at 7.2 microns (a reasonable and proven compromise), may be with some materials and manufacturing improvements, yielding in slightly better sensitivity.

This, combined with a redesigned arquitecture for 8.5 (or higher) speeds, optimized placement of on-board electronics for better thermal dissipation (long exposures), and an on-the-fly, view-finder-assisted crop (for producing high-density 8.2 Mpixels files), will be basically the ultimate camera to have, the machine for all tasks, for all purposes, for any condition. In other words, the Ferrari F430, that will open up pretty much ANY photographic possibilities. As for the body, I do not care about the size, but if the weight can be reduced, well... even much better.

Besides the above, we will not see anything higher than 11-12 Mpixels on the 1.255x format, if it survives (just my opinion, though). That will mean going down to 6.4, and our current 1D MarkII-N 8.2 micron sensor clearly-and-visibly outperforms our Canon 30D's 6.4 micron sensor, in the dynamic-range, signal-to-noise ratio and DETAIL/microcontrast department.

We will soon see what exit will Canon propose to get out of this dead-end street, imposed by the actual sensors' sizes and form-factors, as well as the physical laws that operate the design and implementation of current technology...

...

Asher Kelman said:

My own feeling is that we will see a 21 or 24 MP 1 series body.
I'd hope with bracket focus!

Asher

Click to expand...

I am still betting on 22MP (if I were actually betting), based on that was the MP number mentioned a couple of years ago and that number had to come from somewhere. Not saying it will be, just seems most likely. But the maximum I would expect without enlarging the sensor format (along with lenses ) would be about 25MP.

Ferenc Harmat said:

Besides the above, we will not see anything higher than 11-12 Mpixels on the 1.255x format, if it survives (just my opinion, though). That will mean going down to 6.4, and our current 1D MarkII-N 8.2 micron sensor clearly-and-visibly outperforms our Canon 30D's 6.4 micron sensor, in the dynamic-range, signal-to-noise ratio and DETAIL/microcontrast department.

Click to expand...

Why does it outperform it, though? It outperforms it because the pixel pitch is less demanding on the lenses. Also, at ISOs 100 and 200, the 1DmkII has less read noise. At ISO 1600, the 30D has slightly less read noise than the 1DmkII. Both cameras have the same shot noise at the same ISO.

We will soon see what exit will Canon propose to get out of this dead-end street, imposed by the actual sensors' sizes and form-factors, as well as the physical laws that operate the design and implementation of current technology...

...

Click to expand...

The only dead-end is with Canon wide-angle lenses; they just aren't all that sharp. That means that going to smaller pixels is only useful for the better telephotos and macros, which can take advantage of pixel pitches down to 2 microns or less. With optics to match, lots of small pixels are only bad in terms of transfer speed and storage.

This "bigger pixels are better" thing is nothing more than a myth and an illusion; they are only better for write speed and compact storage. Many people have a strong impression of more pixels in the same format being a killer of IQ, but no-one can demonstrate it, at the image or subject level. Only zoomed in, at 100% pixel view, does the smaller pixel become inferior.

The great debate on the Dynamic Range and Pixel Capacity and Size is continued here.