As time goes by

[Georg R. Baumann]

Greetings,

200 years ago Hegel critizised the inability of nations to learn from their mistakes.

Today, after a decade and more of reporting, track records, IPO bubbles, hedgefonds, you get the drift, we are challenged to learn from our mistakes. But, will we do it this time? Evident mistakes of a greed and rip off culture that had only quarterly results and profits in focus, and nothing changed.

From the crash 1987 to the dot com bubble bursting in 2001, nothing really changed, a big shake up, trillions of dollars shifted, and they start all over again. Thanks very much Mr Greenspan, your laissez faire style has enabled these bubbles to reach enormous proportions, and they bursted with a massive bang in deed.

Today we have the Globalisation Preachers jabbering of free trade, but meaning protectionism at home. Civil Rights undermined under the cover of alledged threats, liberties wiped out, freedom of press censored, phones tapped, big brother has better tools at his disposal than 30 years ago, much better tools.

The juggling of risks in the high finance world occured at times like a circus clown and a wizzard on stage juggling with dynamite sticks, and the distinguished audience, from a safe distance of course, applauded and cheered, how convinient.

The last resort, governments to take over.

That's where we are today. Millions of people are suffering from the greed and close to criminal behaviour in the high finance world. But why did that happen now?

Does anyone ever wonder about the timing, or do you think this to be a coincidence?

Do you think the collaps of the markets happened out of a mood of the institutional investors combined with the "laws" of the market? Is it really coincidence that this happens at a time when there are presidential elections in the US? - I don't think so! -

Who are the gainers of that collaps is a question that will be asked surely at some stage, better sooner than later. Where is the main concentration of new emerging capital happening?

The US and their dollar dominance is over, once and for all. History, thanks God, and pretty please, never again!

The wars of the times we live in are fought on foreign battlefields, black ops triggered battlefields to be precise. The historical cycles of such events shall never again repeat, otherwise the architects of war succeeded with their pathological wet dreams.

Recession -> Depression -> War -> New game?

Guess what, we do not have chips left for a new game, time is running out on another front, quickly.

Chomsky said in a recent Spiegel Interview something like, if there are people on Mars looking down on earth, they must think this whole planet is a nuthouse, insane to the bone.

As time goes by, it may be worth remembering who empowered the people in the governments of nations....

As time goes by, and we turn old, it is our children who will ask the questions.

As time goes by, and our children have their own children, what will they tell them why the world is the way it is?

Whatever you do when you have elections in your country, think twice before you cast your vote, but for crying out loud, do make your vote count!

Just a few thoughts....

Peace
~^..^~

 

[Asher Kelman]

Chomsky said in a recent Spiegel Interview something like, if there are people on Mars looking down on earth, they must think this whole planet is a nuthouse, insane to the bone.

Georg,

I see things differently. Chomsky sees things through a filter of his own religious formulation of how things are, what they are and how they might be better. His own brilliant mind and exultation in his well-earned "guru" status prevents him looking from anywhere but Mars. Here is the real issue. We are delusional. All of us, not just our brilliant minds like Chomsky or the evil Hitler’s and warmongers and exploiters both of us detest.

Here are the facts as I see them. Humans are growing faster and developed inordinate powers beyond our current social and cultural capabilities to be safe. We have not, as yet, sufficiently developed instruments by which we can live in harmony with each other and the planet. The US dollar has served as an economic instrument that has helped commerce. However it has healthy competition and that will grow.

Let's look at the good: We have had a major decrease in mass killings in the past years. We have more people educated and given access to opportunity than ever. We provide food aid and technical assistance to communities in need. Not enough, for sure! More women are protected and more female children are being educated. We have had hundreds of negotiated peace agreements all over the globe, including Ireland. Remember we are just apes that can use iPod. We have compassion. We try to be fair and help each other. Yes we have greed and exploitation! Still, think of it, most people eat, are not frozen at night or devoured by wild animals. Humanity is a work in progress. We are really pretty handsome apes, superbly innovative but handicapped by our penchant for lying and deception, a very characteristic that allowed us to not be wiped out and to hunt well.

However we are stuck in our progress towards civilization by these issues:

The Boiling Pot of Anger of those left behind: Populations have exploded in many traditional or inner city poor societies by simply having clean water and antibiotics. They efficiently produce new babies and maintain their ethnic/religious tribal identity against all threats from the outside. The very fact of unrestrained population growth with no increase in resources helps maintain hostility to richer societies.

Trade & Commerce: Humans are most efficient when specialized for particular tasks and therefore decrease the labor to create products or services. This leads to accumulated wealth that can be traded via currency. This way the cloth-maker can eat well, sleep comfortably, have a watch and good shoes too. However, we have not developed all the machinery that can verify what is in your granary or storehouse or represented by the electronic aggregation of resources that are traded. I say it's perfectly human to try to sell of wasteland as luxury retirement investments. We just need tools to protect the would-be purchasers. That is partly having training in ethics and also creating watchdog institutions so that rampant exploitation does not occur.

Still, the fundamental issue is unrestrained population growth and delusion. The perceived evils of the US $ is just one manifestation of thinking of "devils", spirits", "demons" and other such instruments for our failures.

We will get through this. There will be no famines. People will still put ribbons in their daughter's hair and sing lullabies.

Chomsky is a hero of mine, but limited to his being erudite and within his own world of delusion, like the Pope and the Dalai Lama, internally pretty consistent. They all use language with great consideration and beauty. However each speaks from a bubble of delusion.

What's needed? ? The challenge is not for more justice or inventions but more tools for understanding what on earth is going on and tools to allow us to cooperate.

Asher

And, BTW, we do try to learn from our past mistakes. For example now liquidity of the monetary systems is being strengthened on a word-wide basis, banks are being supported and we'll not increase taxes to stop investment or shut down jobs.

 

[Georg R. Baumann]

You know, roughly 125 people on this planet count for 2 trillion USD net worth. This is well documented, and is there something wrong with it? I think so!

We had bailouts in ’89, ’94, ’97, ’98. Financial markets frequently get bailouts, then lecture poor people about self-reliance.

Here is a somewhat amusing interview with Stiglitz from your stomping ground:

http://www.lacitybeat.com/cms/story/detail/dr_joseph_stiglitz/7545/

Marx was right. LOL

 

[leonardobarreto.com]

Bob Herbert prints in The New York Times: "The lesson for Americans suffused with anxiety and dread over the crackup of the financial markets is that the way you vote matters, that there are real-world consequences when you go into a voting booth and cast that ballot...."

I think that this time if you (Americans, -I am Central American, so only have to live with the consequences) go for the man, or woman, that feels like best company to have with a beer on hand or plays better bowling, --only-- then the entire wide world could be in more trouble.

Remember the Renaissance? that is when liberal thinking succeeded the Inquisition and the Dark Ages...

Please, please, think very hard about the way you vote this time...

 

[Asher Kelman]

Leonardo,

I don't think that it makes much difference who is in office. The entire Western world has developed toxic financial instruments which were traded at ridiculous multiples by hot shot traders who thought it was some electronic X-Box video game.

We will just need to build instruments to make these transactions outlawed or transparent. It's clear that from Iceland, to London and the USA everyone was living in a delusional bubble of financing high risk home purchases, increasing demand for low value property and therefore inflating the prices and loans for people who would not be able to make payments when the balloon came due. Now it's all in the open, not a USA homebrew but a Western World infestation of the commodity markets with these instruments which were give values they did not merit.

From now on I see instability until the cash gets into the system, like adding fluid to a dry transmission, it has to get filled and circulated to fill all the voids and remove the bubbles. That will take about 3 weeks at least. Then the uncertainty of the American Government will be resolved and for sure people waiting on the side lines will grab worthwhile bargains and the DOW JONES market will climb back to 12,500 within the next 15 months.

All over the world, people want to work, they have products to sell and wishes to fulfill. In the short run there may be local disasters but we have grain reserves and we can handle that. I have faith that despite out mental shortcomings, we'll be forced to allow each other room to succeed.

Asher

 

[Georg R. Baumann]

No no, it is a USA homebrew Asher, but yes, the rest of the high finance gladly picked up the insane profits. The flippin Fed and the Banks created the tech bubble, then they created the housing bubble, enabling home owners equity withdrawl close to 1 trillion USD and cutting tax rates, this was your "dear leader's" reciept for the bancrupcy cocktail my friend, and in fact he makes tricky Dick look like an honorable, moral and upright business man, doesn't he?

"Go shopping....!" LOL

 

[leonardobarreto.com]

Georg, I'm glad this is a "global" forum and comrades from Ireland that can back me up, thank.

I think that Asher has a point in the sense that the world is connected and "smart" people are doing the same thing in places like Iceland to Russia, but the other day the President of Brazil was asking: why we have to pay for the crazy roulette they where playing in the USA? I think that it is fair that developing and emerging countries --or even plain poor banana republic ones like my native Nicaragua-- can ask that the government of the world leading economy -for now- do what they have been preaching with the IMF all this years.

In other words, the United States of America has become the biggest Banana Republic of the world.

A Banana Republic would:

* Invade countries with no reason.
* Use company attached to Vice President with no-bid contracts in that invaded country. (Cheney)
* Not capable of helping their citizens in a major disaster. (New Orleans)
* Torture and extra judiciary detentions.
* Complete collusion of local oligarchy with government lifting all regulations that would result in typical Banana Republic falling of banks...
* Efforts to distribute wealth in the Banana Republic way: money should flaw from the poor to the rich.
* Banana Republics do as much as they can in not provide their citizens with health care, education, infrastructure and security. Rich don't pay taxes because "government is corrupt. This is a Banana Repubic"

I know a Banana Republic when I see one because I was born in one (Nicaragua) and lived for at leas 2 years in Guatemala, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico and now Bolivia.

I think that there is time for the US to "develop" back to the modern republic we all admire and love... so
Asher, you have the power to steer this ship back from Third World territory to where it should be....

 

[Georg R. Baumann]

Hi Leonardo,

as I said, roughly 125 people sign for a net worth of a staggering 2,000 bn USD as we speak, personally I find this unethical, inacceptable in deed.

From a photographic point of view <grin>

Would you rent these people a room in your house? Just on first sight I mean...

Courtesy of Reuters:
Casino Tycoon Sheldon Adelson USD 11bn net wroth

Courtesy of AP:
Larry "Nutjob" Ellison (Oracle, excuse the personal comment, hehehe) 5.9bn

LOL, they would not come pass my dog, this much is certain! He senses Bullshitters usually very quick and let's them know what he thinks of them.

In my view, the whole thing is laughable if it would not be that sad in deed.

You are right, the focus at the moment is diverted from other major problems, I woudl think, if the western markets loose 20% the emerging markets lost around 40% when the ripples hit them. Apart from that we have a gobal food crisis to deal with.

As for the US, they are bancrupt in my book, ethically as well as economically bancrupt. Remains to be seen what happens next.

Disgusting times in deed, but if it works the way as usual, fat cats get even fatter when the Dow climbs again because they snatched up bargains by the ton, and poor people are told to tighten their belts another notch.

 

[Asher Kelman]

More of the Grand Delusionorium wherein apes still believe in dogma and trickery.

Hi Leonardo,

as I said, roughly 125 people sign for a net worth of a staggering 2,000 bn USD as we speak, personally I find this unethical, inacceptable in deed.

May I again quote from my 2001 poem "The Grand Delusionorium" I saw this coming. 20 x earnings evaluations on the market! Dumping toxic wastes in our air, land and rivers!

The Grand Delusionorium

Howfar Havwegon
Fromthetime ofBabylon?
Wehobblbent fromnowon
Mazes ofdiversion

Electoniscorium!
Legstoheaven sensorium
PC decorium
Rivers Arsenicorium

Silicon Salvatorium!
Ape tohumanromanroad
Stoplight Righturnorium

Logarithmic Delusionorium!
Thisponzischeme mustimplode
Bybasic mathmatorium​

Note especially the last lines: This ponzi scheme must implode by basic mathmetorium!



Georg,

First, the toxic instruments were exposed in the USA earlier than most places but flourished ALL over the Western World. It was only a US problem in so far as the size of the US economy is more massive than most.

But you may have missed the point of all this. Finding people who are disgustingly rich is simple. Provide money, drop it from the sky and some will end up stinking obscene rich and others have nothing. Here's the nature of our societies.

The Bad:

1. We know how to mate and produce kids.
   
2. We have antibiotics, food even if we have no money, and clean water.
   
3. So kids survive!
   
4. Education in religious societies is often poor and inner cities is poor so the massive populations of kids grow up with low opportunity.
   
5. These kids cannot compete equally for the excess wealth we produce with new technologies.

The Good:

1. We have a conscience and realize there is unfairness and lack of opportunity
   
   
2. We have brought education and women's rights to many communities
   
   
3. We have set up self-sufficiency through funding local enterprises
   
   
4. We provide food as a backup for crop failures

The Dilemma:

1. In our evolution from apes to hunter gathers and now advanced agriculture and technology economies we have discovered and invented power tools to amass food, energy, necessities and luxuries that humans want. The way we trade is via instruments.
   
   
2. If we cannot trade, factories cannot sell and workers have no jobs and so cannot but anything from the giant store of products made all over the planet.
   
   
3. The instruments of money has worked pretty well with linkage between different currencies. The worth of each is left to the markets to decide. For the investment in factories in whole industries and stores of products, we have the stock and commodity markets. Without these, there would be little incentive for supporting major and novel growth of the production sectors of society.
   
   
4. Unfortunately we have grown faster in producing products and wealth than we have in inventing instruments of transparency for the stock and derivative markets. These have been worked by kids expert in playing games, as if they were at the console of an X-Box to play with each day. There is no need for conscience nor substance, just high adrenalin risk taking, hiding one's knowledge and making the kill. Here above all the ape background of hunting by intelligence, strategy, tactics, stealth, deception and surprise come to reward the day trader and broker and packager of toxic mortgages. As long as everyone wins, who cares? Well the system collapsed because part of the things traded had little value, just a market of inexpensive homes made popular with easy mortgages to people who had no money to buy a home in the first place. These mortgages were amassed together, wrapped up as respectable commodities, given a multiplication factor in value for growth of x12 to x20 and guess right, they sold like hot cakes. That just proves our ancient ape skills of hunting really work!
   
   
5. What if we just shoot the top richest 500 men and take their money for poor people, what then? That would be money that would help initially but mostly it would do nothing in balance as the loss of market confidence would wipe away far more wealth overnight.

So what's needed for us:

1. A trained specialty of an objective "inspectorate", "economic health inspectors", to determine what is under the wrappings of all offerings and to check facts and what the economic and ethical health of each bank and trader is.
   
   
2. Instruments to allow reconcilitiation of all trades every night world wide so we know hte value of all things.
   
   
3. Cooperation between the industrial nations so that none makes moves to harm another. We cannot make holes in their side of the boat!
   
   
4. Insurance of all bank deposits
   
   
5. Insurance of bank to bank deposits
   
   
6. Accountability of management
   
   
   • Bonus and salaries over a base of 20 times median salaries to be vested over ten years and owned based on stock long term performance.
     
   • Luxury items and pampering to be paid by own salaries not stockholders.
     
   • Golden Parachutes and shared vested in past 3 years and bonuses in past 3 years have to be repaid if the company fails.

The Religious Time Bomb:

In societies with cultural demands to produce as many children of their faith as possible, with little modern education, then huge gaps will grow between them and more industrialized nations. Even massive oil and mineral wealth cannot match Malthusian growth of populations. We have lost the cruel controls of nature: child mortality, wars for local resources and starvation. We just supply clean water, antibiotics and food and the governments, unions and social organizations provide prayer or dogma and demons to hate. In short, hatreds for the pillars of successful Western Societies are generated. Unfortunately, exploitation of indigenous societies, enslavement and exploitation by all the Western countries, even peaceful nations like Holland, Spain, Portugal and Belgium are easy to draw on as proof of the evil of Capitalism or European culture.

At the same time, the reviled industrialized nations, with low birth rates, need infusions of people they would rather exclude because of foreign cultural norms. Older industrial societies must add to the workforce and replace aging populations. The rate of assimilation and integration of newcomers and their assumption of identity with values of host societies will determine whether or not this a developing magma under pressure, a critical fatal mistake or else valuable tactic to our continued progress.

The Reality: We are just animals, apes with palm pilots or ipods striving to pull ourselves up from the rules of the jungles using our intelligence, creativity and compassion. To this we must add wisdom. What we currently see are the partly made inner linings of the garment, not the garment or the finely dressed person. Accept that we are still primitve and the demons we point fingers at are merely the flies we can see.

Asher

 

[Ben Rubinstein]

Asher, define modern education and its need in society?

Basic education is a must, I doubt anyone would disagree. However why would anyone need a college degree to function in society unless the particular field they intend to work in needs a level of education that requires teaching at an academic level?

For example I would not disagree that a doctor needs academic training. However a plumber may be an expert in his field without any academic training whatsoever.

Furthermore if we look at the fields traditionally requiring high academic qualifications, I would hazard a guess that a huge chunk of them are now rather caught up in this mess. So much for the use of that education! (p.s. this past paragraph is tounge in cheek!!!!)

Asher pinpoints religeous sectors as having poor modern education. I'm an Ultra Orthodox Jew who comes from a sector which traditionally does not progress further than high school secular education.

However those in the sector I come from can all speak 3 languages from about age 10, can read and transalate a further two languages by age 15 or earlier plus having the ability to read those languages in 5 or so different scripts used over the past 2000 years. At age 6 I could read hebrew and talmudic texts written in 4 very different scripts as well as English written in either regular or script. This was by far the norm and I was a very unacademic kid (and adult for that matter!).

My High School consistently achieved some of the top GCSE crades in the country, the average of exams taken was far higher and we did it at age 15 not 16. Did I mention that secular (non talmudic studies) only took 4 hours in the school day?

After leaving school I and those like me studied in depth talmudic and Jewish Law studies from 9am to 11pm, every single day of the week including Saturday and Sunday. I did this for 6 years from the age of 15 and a half and that was less than most, I left to go to University.

I went to a Technical University in Jerusalem. They had a special program for those of us who had little formal secular education though I had more than most. The 18 year olds on the program who had no secular education past age 10 were brought up to what I considered my (GCSE) level within just 3 weeks. No I'm not exaggerating. In English, Math, Physics and history they took just 3 weeks to pass the exams. It took just a further year to complete the entire higher level syllabus of the Israeli high school system which IMO is higher than that of the UK where I had been schooled. My wife who did finish high school at age 18 in the UK concurs. At the end of that year we all passed the enterance exams and psychometric exams required to enter the university, one of the highest regarded here in the country.

And this is the norm in the Ultra Orthodox Jewish community. Kids are getting to age 18 with far more education (albeit in a very narrow field but that is no different than someone studying law) and usually with a far wider general knowledge than most regular kids.

Modern education? Not sure that the lack of such is the root of all evils for all that I come from just one of those religeous societies usually held to be uneducated.