News: CIPA: Less than 7 million cameras have shipped from Jan-Oct 2020

[Pao Dolina]

https://www.dpreview.com/news/55975...s-mostly-recovered-from-its-covid-19-downturn

And I personally expect November-December 2020 to not ship more than 2 million digital still cameras (DSC).

A grand total of less than 9 million DSC shipped globally for 2020.

This would be the worst year since the all time high of 121 million back in 2010

Will it settle back again at about 1999's 5.06 million?

In 2019 the global shipment of DSC was 15.2 million vs 1.52 billion of smartphones.

That's a ratio of 1 DSC to 100 smartphones.

Camera makers are now focusing on camera features iPhones and Androids will have difficulty replicating due to their limited size. Though these "advantages" may not last long due to computational photography. The features are

• Larger image sensors that allow for higher ISO and dynamic range
• Super zooms that allow 35mm equivalent optical zooms of 20mm to 3,000mm
• Better water resistance or ruggedness
• Built-in photo paper printing

Even with the limited dimensions of a conventional smartphone R&D money from over billions of smartphones sold annually allowed for creation of

• Larger image sensor: iPhone is now 47% larger than before & Android made improvements as well
• Super zooms: Have been addressed by having more than 1 rear cameras with ultrawide, wide & telephoto zoom ranges
• Better water resistance: iPhones 12 now can do IP68 under IEC standard 60529 (maximum depth of 6 meters up to 30 minutes) & Android can do something similar as well
• Built-in photo paper printing... smartphone makers are smart enough not to sell to hipsters.

 

[Jerome Marot]

For most people, the smartphone is the better camera, not because of its photographic abilities, but because it can be used to display and send pictures to their friends. It is like a photoalbum in their pockets. I think that this is the most important aspect and one that is forgotten in most studies: not taking pictures, but showing them.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Pao,

I appreciate your well written report. Thanks for this important and valuable contribution.

What proportion of the fall in camera sales might be due the pandemic decline in trade, commerce and vacationing??

Computational advances will also increase the advantages of MF. We are not ready for smart phones to replace professional cameras. But it’s the prosumer and enthusiast market that must be also satisfied.

Canon R5 can track birds in flight and focus at f11 that kind of advantage is out of reach for the time being for smart phones.

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

Computational advances will also increase the advantages of MF.

Computational advances are not so likely to increase the advantages of MF cameras, because it is not the same market. To finance the development of related software (and also some hardware, particularly the depth sensors), google and apple can count on a market of a billion users, while MF manufacturers cannot spend the same ressources.

We are not ready for smart phones to replace professional cameras.

But they already have. One of the main market for "Professional cameras"were the news. Smartphones have already replaced that market, because they are there at the time of the event. Even for video cameras: the TV routinely publishes captures from youtube.

The "professional" market itself is changing. News photographers have been fired in masses.

But it’s the prosumer and enthusiast market that must be also satisfied.
Canon R5 can track birds in flight and focus at f11 that kind of advantage is out of reach for the time being for smart phones.

That will probably always exist as long as there is a profit to make. But, as the number of users of these cameras decreases, the unit price will increase (and we are already experiencing this for the lenses).

 

[Pao Dolina]

Pao,

I appreciate your well written report. Thanks for this important and valuable contribution.

What proportion of the fall in camera sales might be due the pandemic decline in trade, commerce and vacationing??

Computational advances will also increase the advantages of MF. We are not ready for smart phones to replace professional cameras. But it’s the prosumer and enthusiast market that must be also satisfied.

Canon R5 can track birds in flight and focus at f11 that kind of advantage is out of reach for the time being for smart phones.

Asher

Good question and I have somewhat of an idea

If COVID-19 did not occur then DSC globally shipepd would be 12.16 million using the 80/20 rule. So that's a deficit of ~3.2 million due to COVID-19.

Really wish Apple's software know how and 5nm process could be copy pasted on the EOS R5 and DIGIC X.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Good question and I have somewhat of an idea

If COVID-19 did not occur then DSC globally shipepd would be 12.16 million using the 80/20 rule. So that's a deficit of ~3.2 million due to COVID-19.

Really wish Apple's software know how and 5nm process could be copy pasted on the EOS R5 and DIGIC X.

The stress will Force Canon to look at the technology they have patented but not employed such as their layered single sensel “Foveon” type technology to excite prosumers and enthusiasts.

 

[Pao Dolina]

The stress will Force Canon to look at the technology they have patented but not employed such as their layered single sensel “Foveon” type technology to excite prosumers and enthusiasts.

Good idea.

My point of view is that camera makers needs to create new markets for their tech that smartphones will unlikely to enter.

Point & shoot is dead.

dSLR will became the next rangefinder.

Mirrorless will be the domain of working photographers/businesses (~80%) and retirees/hobbyists (~20%).

As volume reduces the per unit sale price of cameras will only go up.

• 2005 5D intro price was $3,299.
• 2008 5D Mark II intro price was $2,699.
• 2012 5D Mark III intro price was $3,499.
• 2016 5D Mark IV intro price was $3,499.
• 2020 R5 intro price was $3,899.

 

[Pao Dolina]

2020 CIPA shipping data

Total Cameras - 8,886,292
Point & Shoot - 3,578,643
Total SLR & Mirrorless - 5,307,649
SLR - 2,374,569
Mirrorless - 2,933,080

1st year Cameras sells from 8 to 7 digits due to COVID-19
3rd year ILC outsells P&S
1st year MILC outsells SLR

 

[Asher Kelman]

True, Pao, but look at Fuji, it’s new 103MP GFX camera has an asking price of about $5600!

Consider the pressure on Hasselblad, Leica and Phase One MF cameras!

Also I can imagine that the cell phone will help feed new enthusiasts to stabilize the pro camera market.

Also remember that hospitals use these cameras for microscopy in pathology and for endoscopes etc.

Soon, thr mass improved, folded optics shrunk technology will enable multi-camera arrays capable of amazing depth perception and decomposition and focus after the fact.

so expect an entirely new set of camera to be fed to a billion person market of experienced mobile camera photographers.

Consider the DSLR and today’s mirrorless as just the temporary “placeholders” for the multi-sensor arrays that will be standard in the next decade.

We love gadgets. They are made to be sexy and add status! I am certain there will be a harvesting of all the miniaturized technology and in-camera computing to open a new array of “wants“ that have to be satisfied.

Asher

 

[Pao Dolina]

I think point & shoots will become ultra specialized while SLRs will become the next Range Finders

 

[Asher Kelman]

I think point & shoots will become ultra specialized while SLRs will become the next Range Finders

What do you mean by “Rangefinders”?

 

[Pao Dolina]

What do you mean by “Rangefinders”?

 

[Doug Kerr]

Of course a rangefinder is an optical device for determining the distance to something. There was a family of cameras that incorporated a rangefinder, often integrated into the focusing system,. These were, reasonably, called "rangefinder cameras". Some people call those cameras "rangefinders". Only one of my digital cameras is a "rangefinder camera".

As to "point and shoot", I find that, with all my cameras, if I don't point, I don't get a shot of what I intended, and if I don't shoot, I don't get a shot of anything. This limitation may be overcome in a future generation of telephones. Or wristwatches.

Best regards,

Doug

 

[Pao Dolina]

When I say SLRs will become the next rangefinders what I meant was it will become a niche product as limited of scope as those sold by Leica.

Most likely Canon/Nikon will cease production of SLRs by 2025/2026 when demand becomes too little to be economical to produce further.

While Pentax becoming the sole SLR brand.

 

[Jerome Marot]

I would advise against basing predictions on sales figures from 2020. But what do I know?

 

[Pao Dolina]

I would advise against basing predictions on sales figures from 2020. But what do I know?

Canon expects digital still camera global shipment to become less than 10 million a year

It's the composition that will change.

1st place MILCs
2nd place Point & Shoots
3rd place SLRs

COVID-19 impacted demand and supply. Sales may rebound between 9-15 million for this year but I'd bet it to be around 10 million only.

 

[Asher Kelman]

When I say SLRs will become the next rangefinders what I meant was it will become a niche product as limited of scope as those sold by Leica.

Most likely Canon/Nikon will cease production of SLRs by 2025/2026 when demand becomes too little to be economical to produce further.

While Pentax becoming the sole SLR brand.

Well, Fuji always made MF cameras in tens of thousands so they can survive.

All these cameras are part of medical systems used everyday in hospitals all over the world. The R&D is already done so the small updates are not expensive. Endoscopy and computer aided surgeries still require cameras, although that could evolve as readily available tablets might take their place!

Asher

 

[Pao Dolina]

Well, Fuji always made MF cameras in tens of thousands so they can survive.

All these cameras are part of medical systems used everyday in hospitals all over the world. The R&D is already done so the small updates are not expensive. Endoscopy and computer aided surgeries still require cameras, although that could evolve as readily available tablets might take their place!

Asher

All the brands are going higher-end hence more larger sensor cameras being introduced at a higher price point to cover the lower projected volume.

It would be interesting to see a medium format system costing as much as a Canon R5 and RF L lenses. That would be a nice breakthrough if you want to build a system out of scratch.

Image sensors and lenses will never go away as they will find new applications into new form factors apart from point & shoots, SLRs and MILCs.

Like say camera phones, smartphones, laptops, tablets, CCTVs, dashcams, reverse cameras, side mirror cameras, etc.

This past month I've been reading up IP-based CCTVs. They're essentially Android smartphone in a different shape and priced accordingly. Like if you were to buy right now the leading popular models have a 4 megapixel image sensor. With 8 megapixel (Ultra HD) models growing in popularity. 2 megapixel (Full HD) models are being phased out or relegate to cheap installs.

These CCTVs use different sized image sensors ranging from those found in 1/3" sized image sensors found in $50 Android smartphones to 63mm sized ones shared with medium format cameras like the Fuji system you mentioned.

The leading brands have smartphone apps to view any number of CCTVs from multiple locations using a hand full of screen taps. Before my involvement all the CCTVs we had was 2MP analogue models that makes it difficult to ID people's faces and vehicle plate numbers.

Some brands even uses EF mount and EF lenses coupled with a APS-C or full frame sensor.

So my experience with photography is applicable in selecting the camera, designing of the network and deployment.

By chance are you in medicine?

 

[Asher Kelman]

All the brands are going higher-end hence more larger sensor cameras being introduced at a higher price point to cover the lower projected volume.

It would be interesting to see a medium format system costing as much as a Canon R5 and RF L lenses. That would be a nice breakthrough if you want to build a system out of scratch.

Image sensors and lenses will never go away as they will find new applications into new form factors apart from point & shoots, SLRs and MILCs.

Like say camera phones, smartphones, laptops, tablets, CCTVs, dashcams, reverse cameras, side mirror cameras, etc.

This past month I've been reading up IP-based CCTVs. They're essentially Android smartphone in a different shape and priced accordingly. Like if you were to buy right now the leading popular models have a 4 megapixel image sensor. With 8 megapixel (Ultra HD) models quickly taking its place. 2 megapixel (Full HD) models are being phased out or relegate to cheap installs. These CCTVs use different sized image sensors ranging from those found in 1/3" found in $50 Android smartphones to 63mm sized ones shared with medium format cameras like the Fuji system you mentioned.

The leading brands have smartphone apps to view any number of CCTVs from multiple locations using a hand full of screen taps. Before my involvement all the CCTVs we had was 2MP analogue models that makes it difficult to ID people's faces and vehicle plate numbers.

Some brands even uses EF mount and EF lenses coupled with a APS-C or full frame sensor.

So my experience with photography is applicable in selecting the camera, designing of the network and deployment.

By chance are you in medicine?

Yes, I am a physician, a Radiation Oncologist but also an academic Molecular Biologist with interest in DNA damage and repair.

Asher

 

[Pao Dolina]

Yes, I am a physician, a Radiation Oncologist but also an academic Molecular Biologist with interest in DNS damage and repair.

Asher

Are you working at a hospital that uses CRISPR to help those with cancer?

 

[Asher Kelman]

Are you working at a hospital that uses CRISPR to help those with cancer?

Retired!

All my science goes into exotic paints, polymers for 3D printing and pushing material boundaries for public art!