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Event 201

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
You may already know about this, as it happened last year.

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201,[29] a high-level pandemic tabletop exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe coronavirus pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.

Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.

The disease starts in pig farms in Brazil, quietly and slowly at first, but then it starts to spread more rapidly in healthcare settings. When it starts to spread efficiently from person to person in the low-income, densely packed neighborhoods of some of the megacities in South America, the epidemic explodes. It is first exported by air travel to Portugal, the United States, and China and then to many other countries. Although at first some countries are able to control it, it continues to spread and be reintroduced, and eventually no country can maintain control.

There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year. There is a fictional antiviral drug that can help the sick but not significantly limit spread of the disease.

Since the whole human population is susceptible, during the initial months of the pandemic, the cumulative number of cases increases exponentially, doubling every week. And as the cases and deaths accumulate, the economic and societal consequences become increasingly severe.

The scenario ends at the 18-month point, with 65 million deaths. The pandemic is beginning to slow due to the decreasing number of susceptible people. The pandemic will continue at some rate until there is an effective vaccine or until 80-90 % of the global population has been exposed. From that point on, it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.

Recommendations issued by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in collaboration with the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation are available here and the titles copied below.

  1. Governments, international organizations, and businesses should plan now for how essential corporate capabilities will be utilized during a large-scale pandemic.
  2. Industry, national governments, and international organizations should work together to enhance internationally held stockpiles of medical countermeasures (MCMs) to enable rapid and equitable distribution during a severe pandemic.
  3. Countries, international organizations, and global transportation companies should work together to maintain travel and trade during severe pandemics.
  4. Governments should provide more resources and support for the development and surge manufacturing of vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics that will be needed during a severe pandemic.
  5. Global business should recognize the economic burden of pandemics and fight for stronger preparedness.
  6. International organizations should prioritize reducing economic impacts of epidemics and pandemics.
  7. Governments and the private sector should assign a greater priority to developing methods to combat mis- and disinformation prior to the next pandemic response.

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief

Exceptional reporting!

The very last point is perhaps the most daunting. The avidity for the brain to infected with paranoia and magical ideas against some opponent or concept is the largest problem in combatting a new viral agent where human behavior and discipline needs self-regulating.

With merely a few dismissive smirks, Donald Trump signaled that wearing masks to protect against COVID-19 pandemic spread was a liberal nonsense and unmanly ridiculous thing to do. With that almost half the US population in some areas refused to wear masks!


Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Don't forget that it goes both ways, Asher.
What went the other way. Who said SARS CoV-2 was dangerous when it was not!

in any case, while false alarms are a waste of resources and dumb down folks willingness to listen in the future, a President with 70 million followers dismissing the urgency of such a threat and NOT using his full peers to combat it would far more dangerous in the John Hopkins postulated and expected event!

It could be a multiply resistant Clostridium flesh-eating bacteria or Omsk Hemorrhagic Fever, diseases already here!

Without leadership understanding biology and public policy but be separated from politics, the last John Hopkins element may be our largest most likely and imminent self-made existential threat,

..... besides nuclear war and some arrival of singularity.


Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
This is a loaded question, Asher. Of course CoV-2 is dangerous.

Have you heard of the shock doctrine?
Yes, but it’s a convoluted claim and sells books! Every so often we get such “insights”! From a Martin Luther and Galileo to Karl Marx, Darwin, Einstein and Joseph Smith Hitler and Donald Trump:

All major influencers! They may deliver merely descriptions of what mechanisms and motivations SEEM to be going on, and are in error and false

..... or they may be based on solid deductive reasoning based on independant unassailable provable truths and valid!

How do we approach this important new set of assertions?

It’s important enough an accusation of modern economies that we should seriously examine it, but likely as not, it is just an unfounded assertion based on the obvious disparity of hope and benefits in today’s worlds.

if the singularity arrives, humans willnot be replaced, but will be irrelevant if ever machines compete for resources we need!


Jerome Marot

Well-known member
Yes, but it’s a convoluted claim and sells books!
The only claim I refer to is that times of trouble and danger make it easier for people in power to increase their power and decrease democratic control. The general population is busy with other things than democratic control. They may see the immediate danger at hand as greater than future dangers which would arise from loss of control.

Note that the affirmation "times of danger make it easier" is a fact. What is disputable is whether the times are used.

We can look into history for examples where these times were used. We will found out several examples, by governments of different obediences. I''l take two examples: the rise in power of Stalin and Hitler happened in times of severe crisis.

What do I thus mean by "it goes both ways"? The one way is the one you noted: people trying to minimize the crisis to keep business running as usual. The other way would be people using the crisis or even making it appear worse than it actually is to distract the population and pass changes which would otherwise meet resistance.

Do we have examples of the second way? Yes, I'll take France as an example. Right before the epidemic we had civil unrest in France in the form of the "yellow vests" movement. It came from the basis, showing that there was general resentment against proposed political developments. The movement came to a halt as demonstrating was not possible with the epidemics or, more specifically, as there suddenly was no popular support for demonstrations.

Interestingly the "yellow vests" movements had, amongst their revendications, the request of more money for the hospitals. Not a cent was invested this year.

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Great reply.

Thanks, Jérôme. especially for your particular insight on expenditure on hospitals in France and the essential silencing of the Yellow Vests.

Macron got a gift from heaven, it seems!