Necessary pictures: Libya

[Asher Kelman]

The recent op ed piece in the New York Times by Fouad Ajamai is interesting and reveals an apparently important emergence of new thinking in the "Arab Street", "How the Arabs Turned Shame Into Liberty" is found here and is well worth reading from an Arabist's point of view. Of course, it might be one side of the equation, but I suspect that much of it will find agreement with other Arab writers in the coming months, as we struggle to understand the scale and depth of the revolutions against tyrannical rulers who we tolerated and the Arabs accepted as their lot.

I'm just praying that the reaming countries work to get ahead of the curve and prepare for orderly transitions by meeting with opposition and also mitigating the pain of the people they govern. Hopefully, the Saudis will lead the way by example and mentoring Bahrain and other family-run states to make the transition a planned and peaceful one.

Asher

 

[Don Ferguson Jr.]

The recent op ed piece in the New York Times by Fouad Ajamai is interesting and reveals an apparently important emergence of new thinking in the "Arab Street", "How the Arabs Turned Shame Into Liberty" is found here and is well worth reading from an Arabist's point of view. Of course, it might be one side of the equation, but I suspect that much of it will find agreement with other Arab writers in the coming months, as we struggle to understand the scale and depth of the revolutions against tyrannical rulers who we tolerated and the Arabs accepted as their lot.

I'm just praying that the reaming countries work to get ahead of the curve and prepare for orderly transitions by meeting with opposition and also mitigating the pain of the people they govern. Hopefully, the Saudis will lead the way by example and mentoring Bahrain and other family-run states to make the transition a planned and peaceful one.

Asher

Bahrain has a Sunni King so the Saudis would back him .I think Iran may be behind that protest since the Shia are the majority but are ruled by the Sunni. And Iran is hated and the Shia are considered the same as them.
If the House of Saud falls there will be US intervention and I assure you the Pentagon has plans already drawn up to protect the oil that would be implemented.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Bahrain has a Sunni King so the Saudis would back him .I think Iran may behind that protest since the Shia are the majority but are ruled by the Sunni .
If the House of Saud falls there will be US intervention and I assure you the Pentagon has plans already drawn up to protect the oil that would be implemented.

The oil can only be protected by the Arabs! What's happening is the Arab street waking up with dignity. I believe that the Iranians might try to leverage the distrust, but I believe that a new Pan Arabism is going to trump that. The Shia are not on the whole interested in killing and hatreds and just want, for the most part hope, work and justice. They don't want to have to be bribing people see the wealth go to a select few. I'd give the Arab street more faith and the effectiveness of some American intervention little value. It's not required that Sunni and Shia fight! That of course is possible and is frightening to contemplate, but not something Shia in Bahrein on the Saudi Kingdom yearn to bring about.

The revenues are needed for bringing to the people advantages they seek. What are they going to do with the oil? They cannot eat it! I have a lot of faith in the educated Arabs who have had so little chance to show their leadership.

What I do fear is that recycled members of the old guard, especially in Egypt, will absorb the ideals of the revolution and then line their pockets, once more. However, if given the chance, we could see a blossoming of Arab pride and successful translation of wealth into advancement.

Asher

 

[Georg R. Baumann]

I have a lot of faith in the educated Arabs who have had so little chance to show their leadership.

Yeah sure, me too, you could see many of them coming for a nice wee friendly gathering end of last month. LOL

http://www.idexuae.ae/

 

[Don Ferguson Jr.]

The oil can only be protected by the Arabs! What's happening is the Arab street waking up with dignity. I believe that the Iranians might try to leverage the distrust, but I believe that a new Pan Arabism is going to trump that. The Shia are not on the whole interested in killing and hatreds and just want, for the most part hope, work and justice. They don't want to have to be bribing people see the wealth go to a select few. I'd give the Arab street more faith and the effectiveness of some American intervention little value. It's not required that Sunni and Shia fight! That of course is possible and is frightening to contemplate, but not something Shia in Bahrein on the Saudi Kingdom yearn to bring about.

The revenues are needed for bringing to the people advantages they seek. What are they going to do with the oil? They cannot eat it! I have a lot of faith in the educated Arabs who have had so little chance to show their leadership.

What I do fear is that recycled members of the old guard, especially in Egypt, will absorb the ideals of the revolution and then line their pockets, once more. However, if given the chance, we could see a blossoming of Arab pride and successful translation of wealth into advancement.

Asher

Even Obama would intervene if other measures did not prevail .

 

[Asher Kelman]

Even Obama would intervene if other measures did not prevail .

Actually, right now, just 2000 soldiers and money to pay the Libyans and provide food would decide the outcome. But for the long run, it's the new pride of the Arabs that will measure up to their own ignited expectations or not!

Outsiders cannot do that!

Asher

 

[Don Ferguson Jr.]

Actually, right now, just 2000 soldiers and money to pay the Libyans and provide food would decide the outcome. But for the long run, it's the new pride of the Arabs that will measure up to their own ignited expectations or not!

Outsiders cannot do that!

Asher

US military right now is moving air and naval forces in the region around Libya and the French and Brits are as well.
Now image if the House of Saud fell . There would be Marines on the ground so fast in Saudi Arabia that your head would spin

 

[Asher Kelman]

US military right now is moving air and naval forces in the region around Libya and the French and Brits are as well.
Now image if the House of Saud fell . There would be Marines on the ground so fast in Saudi Arabia that your head would spin

Actually,

British warships are in and out of Benghazii as if it was a local icecream store! Even an Indian warship is on its way. There are 1800 marines on the USS Enterprise aircraft carrier and that's more than enough to neutralize pro-Gadalfi helicopters and planes. Still, if the Libyans felt that the West was going to take over their oil, there would be a fight with every foreign soldier that set foot on the land!

Asher

 

[Don Ferguson Jr.]

Saudi Arabia is sending some 30 tanks to Bahrain which were sighted late Monday along the King Fahd causeway linking the two countries, witnesses say.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/167565.html

A neighbor lending a hand to a Sunni King . And did you see oil prices shoot up today to $100 barrel.
If there were protests in Riyadh it will be over $200 barrel . The rebels and situation are different in Libya then in Saudi Arabia .I don't think the US will intervene militarily in Libya .
The US would have to intervene to secure the oil in Saudi Arabia if the House of Saud falls or the US economy and dollar would tank .

 

[Asher Kelman]

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/167565.html

A neighbor lending a hand to a Sunni King . And did you see oil prices shoot up today to $100 barrel.
If there were protests in Riyadh it will be over $200 barrel . The rebels and situation are different in Libya then in Saudi Arabia .I don't think the US will intervene militarily in Libya .
The US would have to intervene to secure the oil in Saudi Arabia if the House of Saud falls or the US economy and dollar would tank .

Don,

Don't worry about that! Oil is a commodity that has to be sold to be of value to the folk who control it. The reserves are often overstated and the market already knows that. A dozen tanks does not mean a thing! The Arab street will do what it wants.

I rather think change will come from the hierarchy downwards in the kingdoms as they look around themselves. There are at least, many educated folk capable of helping in a soft transition. Unemployment of youth is a key issue. The leaders are starting to move in the right direction. Is it fast enough? Well, first they will see what the outcome is in Lybya. If Gadalfi succeeds in defying the street by rallying some tribes to his side, then that might influence rulers to do the same.

Once Libya falls, then the pressure is on the rest of the states. Oil wealth has benefitted a lot of people but many in the streets feel left out. The playout is now very slow. Libya does not want to force the hands of the West and vice versa!

Asher