A Critique on “Nobility of Covid-19 Nurses”

[Asher Kelman]

It would appear that the democratic party imploded during the Obama administration. What you are left with, is Trump and the MSM and that is the reality that you will wake up to come November.

MSM? That fringe Right Wing anti real news meme! We actually have some very competent rising stars. Bernie didn’t make it. Getting rid of Trump is the best start we can hope for!

 

[Tom dinning]

It would appear that the democratic party imploded during the Obama administration. What you are left with, is Trump and the MSM and that is the reality that you will wake up to come November.

Don’t get too righteous, James. We on the outside observe with the enthusiasm of a gladiator fight where even the winner will be fed to the lions.

 

[James Lemon]

Don’t get too righteous, James. We on the outside observe with the enthusiasm of a gladiator fight where even the winner will be fed to the lions.

That is not a good business model Tom, feeding gladiators to the lions.

 

[Tom dinning]

That is not a good business model Tom, feeding gladiators to the lions.

And the US political system is?

 

[Jerome Marot]

As of today, there were 53 755 COVID deaths in the USA. Over a population of 328 millions, on can indeed argue that the number is small.

Obviously, we do not know how many death there would have been if the USA had not started containment measures about a month ago. We can estimate the number would have been around 200 000 and still growing by using a "computer model" but James objects the use of such models for epidemics (but apparently not for predictions of economic losses).

The fact is that we have a problem, an epidemic. The fact is also that a problem of this magnitude is bound to cause disruption, even if the magnitude of the problem is relatively small in the scheme of natural events. The question then becomes how to minimise the disruption, be it number of death or number of job losses, whatever. James would, apparently, have chosen another route but the elected representatives of all developed countries have chosen the route we all follow now.

So: sorry, James. Maybe you would have been right by choosing a different strategy or maybe not. We will simply never know. You were in a minority and the choice is behind us. Ultimately, this is how democracy works.

 

[James Lemon]

As of today, there were 53 755 COVID deaths in the USA. Over a population of 328 millions, on can indeed argue that the number is small.

Obviously, we do not know how many death there would have been if the USA had not started containment measures about a month ago. We can estimate the number would have been around 200 000 and still growing by using a "computer model" but James objects the use of such models for epidemics (but apparently not for predictions of economic losses).

The fact is that we have a problem, an epidemic. The fact is also that a problem of this magnitude is bound to cause disruption, even if the magnitude of the problem is relatively small in the scheme of natural events. The question then becomes how to minimise the disruption, be it number of death or number of job losses, whatever. James would, apparently, have chosen another route but the elected representatives of all developed countries have chosen the route we all follow now.

So: sorry, James. Maybe you would have been right by choosing a different strategy or maybe not. We will simply never know. You were in a minority and the choice is behind us. Ultimately, this is how democracy works.

Preparation is one thing, but it's not prudent overreacting to bad science-fiction scenarios. In the absence of evidence-based data, we chose to lock down the planet based on a hypothetical computer model. Be it poor inputs or whatever there is nothing we can do about it now, and I suppose in retrospect, it may have been good thing that we did, in order to regroup and determine what was going on. Moving forward we can now make better choices as evidence-based scientific data becomes available, with confidence and the ability to glean much information while learning from our mistakes.

Protecting our healthcare workers and stopping infectious diseases from spreading to patients in hospitals and care homes is paramount. Here in the province of British Columbia we have done well in this regard.

Many of your points are debateable on a number of levels and I am sure they will be studied at length. My only point is that it is time to climb down from this mess knowing now that there will be no apocalyptic event. We cannot continue with massive lockdowns indefinitely or the consequences will be more severe than the virus itself, as this would result in a host of other problems (e.g., statics reveal that suicide rates go up with every 1% increase in unemployment). Many vulnerable people living on the fringes would be severely affected, struggling with unnecessary consequences.

I have been informed that mortality rates will likely be comparable to a seasonal high influenza outbreak ... with no end-0f-the-world scenario occurring. A large percentage of the population have likely already been infected many of whom are unaware, as they experience mild or no symptoms. Talk of passports, contact tracking, etc. is just pie-in-the-sky at this point. Tracking a small group is one thing but tracking 8 billion people ... I don’t think so. I believe that that we cannot afford to wait around for miracle cures or a vaccine. Seventeen years later (2003 to 2020) and we still have not come up with a cure or vaccine for SARS. That’s a long time to be living in fear and sheltered in a basement. There is no scientific proof that massive lock-downs are effective in the spread of the virus or in slowing mortality rates in the current environment.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Packed cities
Pressure on the wild!

These disruptions will keep happening until we understand the world as an ecosystem

Nature not only has rights, it simple acts as it wishes! But you all know that!

Here’s where I think our disconnect originates. We teach law and business without required accountability to nature.

The advantage of this suddenly global shock, is that folk might escape their their acceptance of “how we consume” and what we take “holy” or as “good for us”: plastic and silicon trinkets, sugary drinks and a thousand shades of lip gloss!

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

Preparation is one thing, but it's not prudent overreacting to bad science-fiction scenarios. In the absence of evidence-based data, we chose to lock down the planet based on a hypothetical computer model. Be it poor inputs or whatever there is nothing we can do about it now, and I suppose in retrospect, it may have been good thing that we did, in order to regroup and determine what was going on. Moving forward we can now make better choices as evidence-based scientific data becomes available, with confidence and the ability to glean much information while learning from our mistakes.

Protecting our healthcare workers and stopping infectious diseases from spreading to patients in hospitals and care homes is paramount. Here in the province of British Columbia we have done well in this regard.

Many of your points are debateable on a number of levels and I am sure they will be studied at length. My only point is that it is time to climb down from this mess knowing now that there will be no apocalyptic event. We cannot continue with massive lockdowns indefinitely or the consequences will be more severe than the virus itself, as this would result in a host of other problems (e.g., statics reveal that suicide rates go up with every 1% increase in unemployment). Many vulnerable people living on the fringes would be severely affected, struggling with unnecessary consequences.

I have been informed that mortality rates will likely be comparable to a seasonal high influenza outbreak ... with no end-0f-the-world scenario occurring. A large percentage of the population have likely already been infected many of whom are unaware, as they experience mild or no symptoms. Talk of passports, contact tracking, etc. is just pie-in-the-sky at this point. Tracking a small group is one thing but tracking 8 billion people ... I don’t think so. I believe that that we cannot afford to wait around for miracle cures or a vaccine. Seventeen years later (2003 to 2020) and we still have not come up with a cure or vaccine for SARS. That’s a long time to be living in fear and sheltered in a basement. There is no scientific proof that massive lock-downs are effective in the spread of the virus or in slowing mortality rates in the current environment.

Let me answer to your points in no particular order:

• there is no scientific proof that massive lock-downs are effective in the spread of the virus -> well... it just plain makes sense that a contact infection is mitigated by minimizing contacts.
• we still have not come up with a cure or vaccine for SARS -> but of course, because SARS is effectively gone, research on a vaccine was abandoned
• many of your points are debateable -> indeed, and they were presented as such
• mortality rates will likely be comparable to a seasonal high influenza outbreak -> it is quite a bit higher, actually
• with no end-of-the-world scenario occurring -> having 1% of humanity dying (which we do not have) would not be the end of the world. This virus is not the end of the world. I never said it was.
• we cannot continue with massive lockdowns indefinitely -> of course we cannot. I never said we should or could.

 

[Jerome Marot]

Nature not only has rights, it simple acts as it wishes!

Of course it does. On a 20-years basis, in average, we have small disruptions like the one we are experiencing. On a longer time frame, we have larger disruptions: volcanoes, tsunamis, asteroids, you name them. Any of these could happen any moment and wipe out between 3 and 6 billions people.

We still have food, water (sanitation) and electricity. Everything is fine.

 

[James Lemon]

Let me answer to your points in no particular order:

• there is no scientific proof that massive lock-downs are effective in the spread of the virus -> well... it just plain makes sense that a contact infection is mitigated by minimizing contacts.
• we still have not come up with a cure or vaccine for SARS -> but of course, because SARS is effectively gone, research on a vaccine was abandoned
• many of your points are debateable -> indeed, and they were presented as such
• mortality rates will likely be comparable to a seasonal high influenza outbreak -> it is quite a bit higher, actually
• with no end-of-the-world scenario occurring -> having 1% of humanity dying (which we do not have) would not be the end of the world. This virus is not the end of the world. I never said it was.
• we cannot continue with massive lockdowns indefinitely -> of course we cannot. I never said we should or could.

Just a response in general that's all Jerome was not meant be a challenge or about being right or wrong.

well... it just plain makes sense that a contact infection is mitigated by minimizing contacts.

Sure but you will get this virus at some point,now or later, it can not be avoided, whether you shelter in place or ride it like a cowboy. Is it a good idea to have the youngsters locked up with Grandpa and Grandma while mom heads in for a long shift at the hospital?

 

[Jerome Marot]

Sure but you will get this virus at some point, now or later, it can not be avoided, whether you shelter in place or ride it like a cowboy.

That is disputable, as China is proving otherwise. If you lock up infected people till they are cured or dead, the virus will not spread any further.

But I see your point. Except that it ignores that if you get this virus now, you may be in need of a respirator and die because they are all used up. If you get this virus later, respirators may be available.

But, frankly James, you are moving the goal posts again. The point was that your preferred strategy was not chosen by your elected representatives. Now, what are you going to do personally?

 

[Michael Nagel]

there is no scientific proof that massive lock-downs are effective in the spread of the virus -> well... it just plain makes sense that a contact infection is mitigated by minimizing contacts.

There is plenty to learn from previous pandemics, here is one example comparing Philadelphia and St. Louis during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.

we cannot continue with massive lockdowns indefinitely -> of course we cannot. I never said we should or could.

Still - a lockdown might have less impact on the economics than none or a late lockdown (World Economics Forum, Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu @SSRN)
Looking at the economies of China and South Korea might be instructive as well.

Michael

 

[Jerome Marot]

There is plenty to learn from previous pandemics, here is one example comparing Philadelphia and St. Louis during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.

Still - a lockdown might have less impact on the economics than none or a late lockdown (World Economics Forum, Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu @SSRN)
Looking at the economies of China and South Korea might be instructive as well.

Michael

Sure, Michael, but you are using "computer models" and James objects the use of such models for epidemics (but apparently not for predictions of economic losses).

Maybe I did not explain my point clearly enough. My point is that we cannot predict the future. We can make hypothesises, but we have to wait to be sure whether the hypothesis was true or not. Consequently, when we make choices as we have to, we can never, ever, say what the alternative futures would have been if we had made different choices. Those alternative futures are forever lost to us.

Now, it seems to me that James would have preferred if we had made different choices. Choices where we would have less lockdown and less job losses, maybe.

James may well be right. Or he may be wrong. We will never know. Because we made different choices and these alternatives that James would have chosen are forever lost.

We have to live with the choices which are already behind us. We have to live with the lockdown, the factories closed, the market crashed and oil at a negative price. These are facts. We also have to live with too many people contaminated, mass graves in city parks and the hospital working overtime. These are also facts.

Whatever we do, we make choices. And we can always imagine different choices would have been better. But these alternatives are lost, forever.

 

[James Lemon]

That is disputable, as China is proving otherwise. If you lock up infected people till they are cured or dead, the virus will not spread any further.

But I see your point. Except that it ignores that if you get this virus now, you may be in need of a respirator and die because they are all used up. If you get this virus later, respirators may be available.

But, frankly James, you are moving the goal posts again. The point was that your preferred strategy was not chosen by your elected representatives. Now, what are you going to do personally?

My habits of social distancing and such have been ingrained into my lifestyle for some 35 years. Nothing new in my behaviors when out in public I personally don't like smelling other peoples bad breath. The inconvenience of finding empty shelves of toilet paper or standing in line is something that I can live without. I follow the rules and stay informed but I don't live in fear. I think my body would rather be exposed to a new virus in the early stages rather than the latter giving it a better chance to adapt to it.

" Now we know that 97% to 98% of those infected get better. It’s not such a devastating illness that kills everyone. It’s very important to understand that.” Epidemics that spread very quick are usually associated with lower mortality.

So of course the current goal posts need to be changed.

 

[Tom dinning]

My habits of social distancing and such have been ingrained into my lifestyle for some 35 years. Nothing new in my behaviors when out in public I personally don't like smelling other peoples bad breath. The inconvenience of finding empty shelves of toilet paper or standing in line is something that I can live without. I follow the rules and stay informed but I don't live in fear. I think my body would rather be exposed to a new virus in the early stages rather than the latter giving it a better chance to adapt to it.

" Now we know that 97% to 98% of those infected get better. It’s not such a devastating illness that kills everyone. It’s very important to understand that.” Epidemics that spread very quick are usually associated with lower mortality.

So of course the current goal posts need to be changed.

Hey, James.
Have you ever thought that the general public are avoiding you, for the same or different reasons?

The problem with stats is they don’t identify who gets killed and who doesn’t.
Sure, there’s a probability factor but if you’re dead, your dead.
It’s not that any of us are willing to take our chances without knowing, no matter how small the numbers look, who’s name is on the bullets.

You previously identified road fatalities as a comparison. I, too, feel we neglect continuing killers of us humans as if they are a necessity of modern life. Gun deaths is another.
But we do still make personal steps to ensure our safeguard. Sometimes our decisions are based on convenience, other times it’s financial, then again it might be a community requirement or a regulation or law.
In making our decisions we consider ourselves first, that’s for sure. Like riding a motor cycle. In the tropics it’s exceptionally uncomfortable to wear all the protective gear. Personally, I choose not to, except that which is required by law.
That’s my choice. The only harm I do is to myself if I have an accident. I take my chances. I don’t always see it coming. I have the scars to prove it. Ouch!

But with a virus that can kill (not everyone) if I get it then I put others at risk. Even if I don’t die (and I am a high risk candidate) there is a risk to those I might inadvertently come in contact with, either sirectly or indirectly. Do the Maths James. You know about exponential functions.

But if only one person is affected that’s one too many.

You’re one of the lucky ones, James. Once you started talking people would run for the hills. The Eric Olthwaite of OPF.
For me I’m less fortunate. Children come running to me, teens swoon all over me, middle aged women can’t keep their hands off me, the elderly want t just cuddle me. It’s a burden I bare with dignity nd grace. I’m sure you can understand why I wouldn’t go out in public when there is a danger the the entire population of DARWIN.

 

[James Lemon]

Hey, James.
Have you ever thought that the general public are avoiding you, for the same or different reasons?

The problem with stats is they don’t identify who gets killed and who doesn’t.
Sure, there’s a probability factor but if you’re dead, your dead.
It’s not that any of us are willing to take our chances without knowing, no matter how small the numbers look, who’s name is on the bullets.

You previously identified road fatalities as a comparison. I, too, feel we neglect continuing killers of us humans as if they are a necessity of modern life. Gun deaths is another.
But we do still make personal steps to ensure our safeguard. Sometimes our decisions are based on convenience, other times it’s financial, then again it might be a community requirement or a regulation or law.
In making our decisions we consider ourselves first, that’s for sure. Like riding a motor cycle. In the tropics it’s exceptionally uncomfortable to wear all the protective gear. Personally, I choose not to, except that which is required by law.
That’s my choice. The only harm I do is to myself if I have an accident. I take my chances. I don’t always see it coming. I have the scars to prove it. Ouch!

But with a virus that can kill (not everyone) if I get it then I put others at risk. Even if I don’t die (and I am a high risk candidate) there is a risk to those I might inadvertently come in contact with, either sirectly or indirectly. Do the Maths James. You know about exponential functions.

But if only one person is affected that’s one too many.

You’re one of the lucky ones, James. Once you started talking people would run for the hills. The Eric Olthwaite of OPF.
For me I’m less fortunate. Children come running to me, teens swoon all over me, middle aged women can’t keep their hands off me, the elderly want t just cuddle me. It’s a burden I bare with dignity nd grace. I’m sure you can understand why I wouldn’t go out in public when there is a danger the the entire population of DARWIN.

You should check your house dust and see what may be lurking. There is no place to hide Tom.

 

[Tom dinning]

You should check your house dust and see what may be lurking. There is no place to hide Tom.

Bugger off, James.
I’m the house cleaner here. The place gets nuked every other day and twice on sundays.
I hardly think a COV blew under the door while I wasn’t looking. We have positive air pressure inside to prevent dust from entering, and no surfaces for anything to live on for more than an hour.
Even our cockroaches wear slippers and clean their teeth.
In addition, we have household wildlife that feeds off dust mites and the like. They hatch regularly, are as welcome as a scone with a cup of tea and flourish on the food we provide in the form of skin flakes, food particles and other body waste that escapes my attention.

 

[Jerome Marot]

" Now we know that 97% to 98% of those infected get better. It’s not such a devastating illness that kills everyone. It’s very important to understand that.” Epidemics that spread very quick are usually associated with lower mortality.

Now you got me confused James. You say that 98% of those infected get better, but that is the output of a computer model. So apparently computer models can be used to predict one's chance of getting better and they can be used to predict how many people will lose their jobs from containment measures but they cannot be used to predict how many deaths we will have or how many we can avoid from social distancing?

 

[Asher Kelman]

Hey, James.
Have you ever thought that the general public are avoiding you, for the same or different reasons?

!

.....You’re one of the lucky ones, James. Once you started talking people would run for the hills. The Eric Olthwaite of OPF.

First I heard of him!


I was gob-stoppered and nearly ripped my intestines out in laughter! What a character that Eric!

For me I’m less fortunate. Children come running to me, teens swoon all over me, middle aged women can’t keep their hands off me, the elderly want t just cuddle me. It’s a burden I bare with dignity nd grace. I’m sure you can understand why I wouldn’t go out in public when there is a danger the the entire population of DARWIN.

For me, give me my 12 ft ladder and my assistants and then it’s the angels that burst in with flowers, silk and smiles!

I’m fine for now, we locked the doors! I don’t know how long we can hold out against heaven!

 

[nicolas claris]

!
First I heard of him!
I was gob-stoppered and nearly ripped my intestines out in laughter! What a character that Eric!

Can't follow you guys, @Asher: the link Eric Olthwaite is unusable… Who's that Eric?

 

[Asher Kelman]

Try this!

Links repaired!

 

[James Lemon]

Now you got me confused James. You say that 98% of those infected get better, but that is the output of a computer model. So apparently computer models can be used to predict one's chance of getting better and they can be used to predict how many people will lose their jobs from containment measures but they cannot be used to predict how many deaths we will have or how many we can avoid from social distancing?

Jerome

Your computer models didn't predict the outbreak in north Italy did they? I specifically was talking about the unpublished Imperial College London report from professor Neil Ferguson and his team. It would appear that there is a big difference between a projection based on assumptions as apposed to existing data.

My accountant can give me cash flow projections for 6 weeks out or 6 months based on existing data but obliviously one would be more accurate than the other.

I have numerous cell phones, vehicles and such, and I have no control over the use them or how many times they get used. I can do year to year comparisons on the costs. The funny thing is, I already know what these costs will be for this year without the accountant or software. But for the first 25 years of growing a company by leaps and bounds into a cash cow, projecting those costs is much more difficult. But these are just a tools dependent on the quality of existing data entered into it.

 

[James Lemon]

Bugger off, James.
I’m the house cleaner here. The place gets nuked every other day and twice on sundays.
I hardly think a COV blew under the door while I wasn’t looking. We have positive air pressure inside to prevent dust from entering, and no surfaces for anything to live on for more than an hour.
Even our cockroaches wear slippers and clean their teeth.
In addition, we have household wildlife that feeds off dust mites and the like. They hatch regularly, are as welcome as a scone with a cup of tea and flourish on the food we provide in the form of skin flakes, food particles and other body waste that escapes my attention.

View attachment 4489

Tom

If you and most folk actually knew some the nasty things that more likely than not may be in the blood of your little friends,yourself,wife and your children's children and will probably be passed onto their children as well. Corona virus wouldn't seem like such a big deal if you did in fact know some of the real nasty shit that's in your dust and just about everywhere you can image. You may not die from it quickly but it lurks everywhere.

In China, state-run media said hospitals in Wuhan, the pandemic's original epicenter, no longer have any COVID-19 patients! Meanwhile At Plucked Up Chicken & Biscuits in Columbus, Georgia, eight regulars showed up in the morning to have their coffee and breakfast and "chatted at each other across the room.

 

[Asher Kelman]

As of last week, new COVD-19 cases dropped to 1886 per day.

That there are none “hospitalized” in Wuhan is unlikely. They are either treated at home or in other facilities they don’t count or they are not being transparent.

Also the testing in China is not generalized. Throughout this pandemic, the Chines always under reported and then after foreign disbelief had to increase them several times.

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

Your computer models didn't predict the outbreak in north Italy did they?

Now you are being mean, James. The COVID-19 computer models were designed after the outbreak in north Italy. They were not designed to predict the past.

 

[James Lemon]

Now you are being mean, James. The COVID-19 computer models were designed after the outbreak in north Italy. They were not designed to predict the past.

Still, they were full of errors, all I can conclude is they must be bad at arithmetic.

 

[Tom dinning]

Tom

If you and most folk actually knew some the nasty things that more likely than not may be in the blood of your little friends,yourself,wife and your children's children and will probably be passed onto their children as well. Corona virus wouldn't seem like such a big deal if you did in fact know some of the real nasty shit that's in your dust and just about everywhere you can image. You may not die from it quickly but it lurks everywhere.

In China, state-run media said hospitals in Wuhan, the pandemic's original epicenter, no longer have any COVID-19 patients! Meanwhile At Plucked Up Chicken & Biscuits in Columbus, Georgia, eight regulars showed up in the morning to have their coffee and breakfast and "chatted at each other across the room.

I do know, James.
And it ain’t that bad. You’re sounding like a FOX NEWS REPORTER.
I’m more concerned about the bullshit you spread. That’s more infectious than anything in my house or most others,
Ignorance is fine when confined to an individual.
It’s fucking dangerous when allowed to come in contact others other ignorants,

 

[Tom dinning]

Buggered if I can figure out how you know so much, James.
And can be so self-assured.
I live in a mental state of nothing but doubt. It’s torture.
Never knowing the answer or being able to predict the future is a curse that constantly nagged at my mental processes.
Like Schrödinger’s cat, I never know if I’m alive or dead. Am I living a dream or am I dreaming life?
Can you send me a sign?

 

[James Lemon]

Buggered if I can figure out how you know so much, James.
And can be so self-assured.
I live in a mental state of nothing but doubt. It’s torture.
Never knowing the answer or being able to predict the future is a curse that constantly nagged at my mental processes.
Like Schrödinger’s cat, I never know if I’m alive or dead. Am I living a dream or am I dreaming life?
Can you send me a sign?

It takes a clear mind Tom but it's not about living the dream, its all about dreaming the dream.

 

[Tom dinning]

It takes a clear mind Tom but it's not about living the dream, its all about dreaming the dream.

View attachment 4517​

Black cat.

Squish!
Was that a black cat?
Not any more it ain't. It's more red than most.
They're supposed to be bad luck.
Yep. Bad luck.
Who has a sack?
A shovel will do.
Do we need to dig a hole?
Yep. Shallow at one end so the fluids flow.
Should we plant something on it?
My foot?
What size
14
Should do the trick
Anyone want to say something?
Fuck black cats.