Paul Bestwick
pro member
I Live in Hobart.....we don't have traffic. We melt bikes for scrap
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Welcome to the new site. Here's a thread about the update where you can post your feedback, ask questions or spot those nasty bugs!
Beyond Al Gore: The OPF Global Warming Debate!
- Thread starter Asher Kelman
- Start date
Edward Bussa
Member
Nice picture of Al Gore in front of that map, did you take that?
=D
=D
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
There are thress issues:
1. convincing the holdouts that it's not a some "crock". My later father in law had that attitude when I reacted to the purple green effluent from power plants going miles out into Tampa Bay Florida. He dismissed it and walked out the room, calling me a naive socialist (I'm neither).
Now Artie was a great fisherman! He had a fast ChrisCraft twin engined fishing boat and then an old wooden rowboat. That was his favorite and he knew the sky, the birds and the ripples in the water as much as God knows the world.
Well, two years later, Artie's on the phone, "Asher, those bastards killed all my fish!' The chemicals fed algae which consumed the oxygen and wiped out the fish! Then he joined!
He still dismissed as naive and mythological the following:
a) Global Warming,
b) New Orleans and other low lying place set for inundation
c) Digital photography.
However, he did do some brilliant photography which I'll scan and post and was a wonderful friend who shared hundreds of hours in the darkroom and at sea with me photographing, fishing and then enjoying the children.
2. Slowing the contribution man makes to greenhouse gases. We can at least stop growing tons of CO2 and methane producing cattle! Beef is fine, just work out how to grow kindly them indoors and trap the methane!
3. Zero Emmision cars: We can't keep releasing trapped carbon and other gases from fossil fuels into the atmosphere anymore. We need new industries to either scrub the gases clean or else use hydrogen or electricity. Or else if we grow it we can burn it as the cycle has zero net gass effect.
4. Replace Oil and Coal as indistrial fuels with either scrubbed or alternate energy. Massive new energy plants that are clean.
5. Safe secure underground nuclear generators that produce all the energy we need. Within 10 years we'd get the design perfect. Another 15 years and we could replace everything we have now.
6.Education and financial incentives to suppress population growth: We only need enough people to feed and service the population.
At least this approach should slow things down enough to allow us adapt.
Asher
1. convincing the holdouts that it's not a some "crock". My later father in law had that attitude when I reacted to the purple green effluent from power plants going miles out into Tampa Bay Florida. He dismissed it and walked out the room, calling me a naive socialist (I'm neither).
Now Artie was a great fisherman! He had a fast ChrisCraft twin engined fishing boat and then an old wooden rowboat. That was his favorite and he knew the sky, the birds and the ripples in the water as much as God knows the world.
Well, two years later, Artie's on the phone, "Asher, those bastards killed all my fish!' The chemicals fed algae which consumed the oxygen and wiped out the fish! Then he joined!
He still dismissed as naive and mythological the following:
a) Global Warming,
b) New Orleans and other low lying place set for inundation
c) Digital photography.
However, he did do some brilliant photography which I'll scan and post and was a wonderful friend who shared hundreds of hours in the darkroom and at sea with me photographing, fishing and then enjoying the children.
2. Slowing the contribution man makes to greenhouse gases. We can at least stop growing tons of CO2 and methane producing cattle! Beef is fine, just work out how to grow kindly them indoors and trap the methane!
3. Zero Emmision cars: We can't keep releasing trapped carbon and other gases from fossil fuels into the atmosphere anymore. We need new industries to either scrub the gases clean or else use hydrogen or electricity. Or else if we grow it we can burn it as the cycle has zero net gass effect.
4. Replace Oil and Coal as indistrial fuels with either scrubbed or alternate energy. Massive new energy plants that are clean.
5. Safe secure underground nuclear generators that produce all the energy we need. Within 10 years we'd get the design perfect. Another 15 years and we could replace everything we have now.
6.Education and financial incentives to suppress population growth: We only need enough people to feed and service the population.
At least this approach should slow things down enough to allow us adapt.
Asher
Nikolai Sklobovsky
New member
Don,
With all due respect, but it's exactly the "scientific-looking" proofs akin to the diagram you brought that makes it very hard for me to believe to anything they say...
Does anyone here seriously think they were systematically collecting CO2 data at 1000 AD? My home town in Russia is a host to one of the world's seven(!) Meteorological Data Centers, and according to people who work there there was no world-wide regular data collection until late XIX century.
I'm just thrilled at a thought how Pizarro was sending his windchill and humidity data back to the Queen of Spain along with the Aztec gold...
Don't get me wrong. I'm all for the alternative fuels, etc.
But if you want to be scientific - please don't bring the proofs that would not hold a third grader's questioning...
With all due respect, but it's exactly the "scientific-looking" proofs akin to the diagram you brought that makes it very hard for me to believe to anything they say...
Does anyone here seriously think they were systematically collecting CO2 data at 1000 AD? My home town in Russia is a host to one of the world's seven(!) Meteorological Data Centers, and according to people who work there there was no world-wide regular data collection until late XIX century.
I'm just thrilled at a thought how Pizarro was sending his windchill and humidity data back to the Queen of Spain along with the Aztec gold...
Don't get me wrong. I'm all for the alternative fuels, etc.
But if you want to be scientific - please don't bring the proofs that would not hold a third grader's questioning...
Attachments
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Nikolai,
I excuse this from you! Why because you already have defied logic and been right in your own way!
I do know that you (like the humming birds that indeed can fly) have already overcome the dictums! You missed the discipline British ordered training systems in photography, and without getting so educated, you defy odds and take pictures! Actually surprisingly good pictures that even I admire!
However, this good fortune does not extend to science.
The data for the CO2 measurements comes from many sources including trapped CO2 in ice (that is found in cores of ice drilled from extreme depths) to go backward in time. With each level we can get samples of the gases and chemicals at that level.
Further we have the tree rings and many other sources.
Nikolai, the data today that we look at comes from myriads of sources that together affirm and complement one another.
Now anyone who can formally show that these data are wrong, will be hailed as the first 21st Century Einstein, become industries’ main spokesman and have the income and jet fleet of a top evangelist!
In fact I could see a government cabinet position, a Nobel Prize and of course, 70 certified virgins while this distinguished thinker is yet still alive !
Oh, yes plus a new MF digital system of your choice and a voucher from Costco for unlimited free prints and t-shirts!
Asher
Edward Bussa
Member
Your post contains a new thought for me: "if we grow it we can burn it" - I was under the faulty assumption that things like ethanol were no better for the environment... but after all, plants consume carbon - duh!
However, with products like ethanol and biodiesel, our energy markets will interfere and compete with our food markets - which doesn't sound like a great idea to me.
Also, this will be a long road, and even longer without levity. I am definitely for humans living efficiently - after all - its efficient. The complex part is that energy is not our only resource and it competes with other resources, mainly time. If we can save time by spending more energy, obviously, time wins every time!
It looks the time for nuclear energy is coming - but that will not last forever either, will it? Does anyone know the estimated world reserves for nuclear metals?
However, with products like ethanol and biodiesel, our energy markets will interfere and compete with our food markets - which doesn't sound like a great idea to me.
Also, this will be a long road, and even longer without levity. I am definitely for humans living efficiently - after all - its efficient. The complex part is that energy is not our only resource and it competes with other resources, mainly time. If we can save time by spending more energy, obviously, time wins every time!
It looks the time for nuclear energy is coming - but that will not last forever either, will it? Does anyone know the estimated world reserves for nuclear metals?
Nikolai Sklobovsky
New member
Asher,
I am by no means a person qualified to hold all those wondorus positions you've mentioned
But since I have at least half a brain (the one I use when I take pictures, you can't deny its existence, I cannot stop thinking....
The tree rings... They record CO2 levels? Only? Or the whole periodic table? I know CO2 is a major contribuor to the plants' lives, to make sure there is a correlation you have to have a different data source. Official data has not been collected long enough for such a long term processes, so we need something else...
Air trapped in ice... OK. Doesn't it strike you as a possibility that the longer the air has been trapped, the more factors can actually affect its "mixture"?
This whole thing reminds me the (in)famous "carbon dating". Everybody was so glad to find it and use it, until (at the end of the XX century) it was discovered that the half-time value is not exactly what they thought it was and fluctuates with the time, basically making it useless for any dating longer than a few centuries.
So, yes, there are data in favor of the theory of the global warming. However, there are other theories. And, as you may agree, science is not about the majority vote. Gallileo and Darwin were way outnumbered by their esteemed colleagues.
Where can I get that MF? ;-)
I am by no means a person qualified to hold all those wondorus positions you've mentioned
But since I have at least half a brain (the one I use when I take pictures, you can't deny its existence
, I cannot stop thinking....The tree rings... They record CO2 levels? Only? Or the whole periodic table? I know CO2 is a major contribuor to the plants' lives, to make sure there is a correlation you have to have a different data source. Official data has not been collected long enough for such a long term processes, so we need something else...
Air trapped in ice... OK. Doesn't it strike you as a possibility that the longer the air has been trapped, the more factors can actually affect its "mixture"?
This whole thing reminds me the (in)famous "carbon dating". Everybody was so glad to find it and use it, until (at the end of the XX century) it was discovered that the half-time value is not exactly what they thought it was and fluctuates with the time, basically making it useless for any dating longer than a few centuries.
So, yes, there are data in favor of the theory of the global warming. However, there are other theories. And, as you may agree, science is not about the majority vote. Gallileo and Darwin were way outnumbered by their esteemed colleagues.
Where can I get that MF? ;-)
nicolas claris
OPF Co-founder/Administrator
Since I've read State of Fear written by Michael Crichton each time I hear/read about global warming (global warning?) I tend to ask myself if all of this is not fake… something I share with Nikolaï's half brain!
Don Lashier
New member
Hi Ivan,
The reason I said the die is cast is that the life of CO2 in the atmosphere is 200 to 400 years so it's a little too late for any immediate impact, especially with China now getting motorized. But I do my part - when I lived in LA I used to drive 30,000 to 50,000 miles per year, but for the last 20 years I drive 3,000 to 5,000 miles per year. Simple solution - move closer to work. I also rode my bike to work for many years.
> Welcome back, where have you been?
Toward the end of last year I started remodeling my bathroom and it became an all consuming project. I've only got so much time for forums and was spending it at a tiling forum (www.johnbridge.com). Project has been done a few weeks now so I'm back.
Here's a photo. BTW, those mountains had snowcaps when I started but it's all melted now
- DL
Don Lashier
New member
Nik, trees feed on CO2 so the size of the rings correlates with atmospheric levels.
In any case I don't think even the most ardent skeptics question the CO2 data. What they question is the causality link claiming that rising CO2 levels are a symptom (result) of warming, not the cause. They may have a point - one of the primary scientific fallacies is to assume that correlation implies causality. This has been the reason for much of the scientific backtracking in recent years, particularly wrt dietary recommendations.
The other argument you hear is that 95% of CO2 is from natural causes. This may be true but the fact is that the industrial component can be identified by radioactive tracing and has risen drastically in the past century upsetting the natural balance causing a disproportionate rise (50%?) in atmospheric concentrations.
- DL
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Nicolas,
Of course I could say, yachts travel because of a little green man on the dark side of the moon.
You however as a boat builder, ships captain and photographer know that I'm wrong.
You would have total friendship with Arty, my late father in law, also a distinguished photographer and sea captain and close friend, who trivialized science and the limits of man's abuse to nature.
This attitude short-changes both you those you influence. My father -in-law could have moved a lot of industrialists to protect Florida Everglades, New Orleans Coastal life and the Tampa Bay had he been not so dismissive and ridiculed any warnings.
My own training as a scientist and physician tells me there's no faking here. Spend time with bird photographers in Europe and you will see it is not some myth!
It appears that we will lose some 30% of birds in the next 15-20 or so years. We are now facing the largest species loss in thousands of years.
If I was going to sea, I'd be happy with you as the captian and navigator, because you have the experience and training to know what it's all about. Likewise, my own training and experience should at least give you pause before you, of all people, would even jokingly say:
I've had many cancer patients who refused treatment since the pastor had prayed with them and their Saviour was delivering them from that cancer and therefore treatment was not needed. Of course, in each case, the patient returned a year later, with terminal cancer, now ready for curative treament. By then, all solutions were long gone.
It as no use trying to explain to such persons that they were in dire danger, since they did not need science to tell them anything, devalue any proofs offered, all with a smile of the "saved".
While I have no doubt in their faith and their own rights to make choices they wish, we cannot do this for whole communites of people and for the fish, birds and other life who's future we control.
We've assumed power over the entire planet. So we must deal with this with rationalism not belief systems. Until you Nikolai or someone else shows otherwise, the prepondance of informed trained careful scientific reports find that with more than 90% certainty we are experiencing man-made global warming excacerbation due to greenhouse gases and other human activites.
Mockery of good science is great disappointment. It does demonstrate, however, the price of a self-indulgant society that looks for immediate satiation, albeit with appropriate showing of tears for the oppressed. I know all this because I live by Los Angeles and Hollywood, "LALA land" where delusion a la mode is part of the way of life!
Asher
Of course I could say, yachts travel because of a little green man on the dark side of the moon.
You however as a boat builder, ships captain and photographer know that I'm wrong.
You would have total friendship with Arty, my late father in law, also a distinguished photographer and sea captain and close friend, who trivialized science and the limits of man's abuse to nature.
This attitude short-changes both you those you influence. My father -in-law could have moved a lot of industrialists to protect Florida Everglades, New Orleans Coastal life and the Tampa Bay had he been not so dismissive and ridiculed any warnings.
My own training as a scientist and physician tells me there's no faking here. Spend time with bird photographers in Europe and you will see it is not some myth!
It appears that we will lose some 30% of birds in the next 15-20 or so years. We are now facing the largest species loss in thousands of years.
If I was going to sea, I'd be happy with you as the captian and navigator, because you have the experience and training to know what it's all about. Likewise, my own training and experience should at least give you pause before you, of all people, would even jokingly say:
Nicolas Claris said:
I've had many cancer patients who refused treatment since the pastor had prayed with them and their Saviour was delivering them from that cancer and therefore treatment was not needed. Of course, in each case, the patient returned a year later, with terminal cancer, now ready for curative treament. By then, all solutions were long gone.
It as no use trying to explain to such persons that they were in dire danger, since they did not need science to tell them anything, devalue any proofs offered, all with a smile of the "saved".
While I have no doubt in their faith and their own rights to make choices they wish, we cannot do this for whole communites of people and for the fish, birds and other life who's future we control.
We've assumed power over the entire planet. So we must deal with this with rationalism not belief systems. Until you Nikolai or someone else shows otherwise, the prepondance of informed trained careful scientific reports find that with more than 90% certainty we are experiencing man-made global warming excacerbation due to greenhouse gases and other human activites.
Mockery of good science is great disappointment. It does demonstrate, however, the price of a self-indulgant society that looks for immediate satiation, albeit with appropriate showing of tears for the oppressed. I know all this because I live by Los Angeles and Hollywood, "LALA land" where delusion a la mode is part of the way of life!
Asher
Last edited:
Ivan Garcia
New member
Hi Ivan,
The reason I said the die is cast is that the life of CO2 in the atmosphere is 200 to 400 years so it's a little too late for any immediate impact, especially with China now getting motorized. But I do my part - when I lived in LA I used to drive 30,000 to 50,000 miles per year, but for the last 20 years I drive 3,000 to 5,000 miles per year. Simple solution - move closer to work. I also rode my bike to work for many years.
> Welcome back, where have you been?
Toward the end of last year I started remodeling my bathroom and it became an all consuming project. I've only got so much time for forums and was spending it at a tiling forum (www.johnbridge.com). Project has been done a few weeks now so I'm back.
Here's a photo. BTW, those mountains had snowcaps when I started but it's all melted now
So .. to resume you were up on those montains having a bit of a wintery holliday sking ... thgen global warning moved in and spoiled your fun by melting the snow.... tch, tch ,tch...
Is good to have you back... so I gues I like globalwarming after all lol.
PS.. good on you driving 300M a yea... I'll try and get on my bike moe often now that I've got one.
- DL
So... to resume, you were up on those mountains having a bit of a wintry skiing holiday ... then global warming moved in, and spoiled your fun by melting the snow.... tch, tch ,tch...
Is good to have you back... so I guess I like global warming after all lol.
PS... Good on you driving 3000M a year... I'll try and get on my bike more often now that I've got one.
Nikolai Sklobovsky
New member
Don,
exactly my point... Post hoc, propter hoc logic is ancient, and it's exactly where it belongs to: the museum.
I'd say - when any issue becomes to be politicized at that level, and so much money is involved, digging for the truth is pretty much pointless. You will only find mud, more mud and then even more of it, untill you are all covered with it and are so tired that you simply choose the side that has less mud to throw at ya...
So I personally stick to photography. I did my part to not waste silver-based chemicals or paper anymore, so you can call me a greenie
exactly my point... Post hoc, propter hoc logic is ancient, and it's exactly where it belongs to: the museum.
I'd say - when any issue becomes to be politicized at that level, and so much money is involved, digging for the truth is pretty much pointless. You will only find mud, more mud and then even more of it, untill you are all covered with it and are so tired that you simply choose the side that has less mud to throw at ya...
So I personally stick to photography. I did my part to not waste silver-based chemicals or paper anymore, so you can call me a greenie
Jeff O'Neil
New member
Don...Like the new bathroom! Excellent job.
Global warming is essentially the new buzz word.
Here in Canada with an Election looming all 3 political parties are trying to outgreen the others. On the surface it's humorous but when you look closely it's quite sad. Six months ago no one in politics seemed to care. Now with the election coming they ALL are in favor of the Kyoto accord.
Myself I've only recently become a green convert.
I believe what so many astute scientists are telling us. We, globally are in trouble.
It's interesting and convenient to point out a nuance and say the numbers are wrong based on ONE single fact. It's an overall effect. No one chemical or process is causing this.
I watched Al Gore's film. It as an eye opener. But as a 30 year veteran in the media I was skeptical as I always am for manipulation. It's always there. But photo's from 20 years ago of Lake Chad, glaciers that have all but disappeared...how can you really refute the evidence? Lake Chad and the glaciers have been there for a thousand years and in 20 they are almost gone?
How can I not feel we've made some huge mistakes?
I have narrated corporate videos for mining companies with holdings in Indonesia. In the video they had some spectacular video of the quasi mountain where the refining mill was located. I mentioned to the producer how beautiful the shot was. He told me it took 3 weeks for the crew to get 10 seconds of clear air over the mill. It emits gasses and smoke without regulation. Since the mill is located near the top of this peak the effluence runs down troughs directly into the ocean. The sea is brown for as far as they eye can see. These shots were taken in early 2006. The effluence runs through the communities where the workers live on the mountainside. would that happen in North America? Not on your life! And this is a company that has received multiple awards for it's lowering of pollution in North America. Outside the continent they are don't even care!
We have no idea what is happening around the world. Thankfully this forum is multi national and such occurrences may well be documented.
My long winded point is ..we need to focus on the big picture not specific numbers.
I read reports and replies that are based on science but I can't reason the arguments to what's happening world wide.
I keep coming back to my jaded media outlook that tells me some of thee reports are from people and companies that do not want profits to erode and the hell with the damage.
Thats my conundrum with all of this. WHO do we believe?
Who can I trust?
I can only trust my own instincts that tell me what the evidence shows.
Right now I trust people like Al Gore as there is no apparent political or corporate agenda.
There are no easy answers and dissecting specific numbers does not come close to a solution.
I have no idea what the ultimate solution is. It's beyond my abilities.
But it has to start happening and people have to bring their head out of the sand and say yes..this is a problem.
Jeff
Global warming is essentially the new buzz word.
Here in Canada with an Election looming all 3 political parties are trying to outgreen the others. On the surface it's humorous but when you look closely it's quite sad. Six months ago no one in politics seemed to care. Now with the election coming they ALL are in favor of the Kyoto accord.
Myself I've only recently become a green convert.
I believe what so many astute scientists are telling us. We, globally are in trouble.
It's interesting and convenient to point out a nuance and say the numbers are wrong based on ONE single fact. It's an overall effect. No one chemical or process is causing this.
I watched Al Gore's film. It as an eye opener. But as a 30 year veteran in the media I was skeptical as I always am for manipulation. It's always there. But photo's from 20 years ago of Lake Chad, glaciers that have all but disappeared...how can you really refute the evidence? Lake Chad and the glaciers have been there for a thousand years and in 20 they are almost gone?
How can I not feel we've made some huge mistakes?
I have narrated corporate videos for mining companies with holdings in Indonesia. In the video they had some spectacular video of the quasi mountain where the refining mill was located. I mentioned to the producer how beautiful the shot was. He told me it took 3 weeks for the crew to get 10 seconds of clear air over the mill. It emits gasses and smoke without regulation. Since the mill is located near the top of this peak the effluence runs down troughs directly into the ocean. The sea is brown for as far as they eye can see. These shots were taken in early 2006. The effluence runs through the communities where the workers live on the mountainside. would that happen in North America? Not on your life! And this is a company that has received multiple awards for it's lowering of pollution in North America. Outside the continent they are don't even care!
We have no idea what is happening around the world. Thankfully this forum is multi national and such occurrences may well be documented.
My long winded point is ..we need to focus on the big picture not specific numbers.
I read reports and replies that are based on science but I can't reason the arguments to what's happening world wide.
I keep coming back to my jaded media outlook that tells me some of thee reports are from people and companies that do not want profits to erode and the hell with the damage.
Thats my conundrum with all of this. WHO do we believe?
Who can I trust?
I can only trust my own instincts that tell me what the evidence shows.
Right now I trust people like Al Gore as there is no apparent political or corporate agenda.
There are no easy answers and dissecting specific numbers does not come close to a solution.
I have no idea what the ultimate solution is. It's beyond my abilities.
But it has to start happening and people have to bring their head out of the sand and say yes..this is a problem.
Jeff
nicolas claris
OPF Co-founder/Administrator
Asher
I wrote
This means only that I don't want to take all this as true, as a dogma…
Of course during the tens of thousands of nautical miles (1852 metres compare to land miles that are about 1600 metres) I sailed on merely all oceans and seas of the World (yes, I did that) I saw so many disgusting pollution due to humans (from land, from yachts, from ships).
I also saw fishermen nets that were made of too small squares and capture too small fishes.
Of course some of the infos collected about air, water, ice, warms etc are unquestionable.
What may be questionable is the analysis that are made from these statistics.
I know that one of the marketing theory is to speak soooooo loud, preaching the worse to be heard.
I am strongly against this theory as it tends to use our fear to manipulate us.
In the best case it relies on the assumption that we are too stupid to understand.
In the worst case… read Michael Crichton's book
Now, anyway, I agree, we have to change our habits and behavior.
But haw can we:
Keep and lock our car in the garage
Be carefull with biofuel - price of corn may increase so much that third world people couldn't afford it anymore
Shut the light (and computers!)
Light the candles
Ban all products made in China or India (and Russia!) as they are polluting countries
Sign 2 billions time the Kyoto act… and assume it
Forget about nuclear energy as we don't know what to do with the used uranium (or whatever it is called) that have millions year of life.
Stop making children (OK I'm old enough for this) so they won't have any "bad future"
And then, may I add : ban tobacco to avoid all lung, throat, tongue cancers.
I'm not joking or playing or being ironic, I'm just tired with all these do, don't etc.
If it's bad, let's ban. For all of us. No privilege.
But are we so sure we're not manipulated? Are we so sure that these predictions are correct?
I AM NOT
Some birds are missing? what about dinosaurs?
Jeff Donovan
New member
Asher, hotter summers would generally mean warmer winters. So one would think the increase in power use in the summer (which would only happen in the industrialized world, btw) would be offset by the decreased use of heating fuels in the winter.
In the 1970s global scientific consensus was that we were going through a cooling phase and that an Ice Age might be in the offing. Curious how things have taken a 180 since then.
In the 1970s global scientific consensus was that we were going through a cooling phase and that an Ice Age might be in the offing. Curious how things have taken a 180 since then.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Sorry Jeff,
It doesn't really work out like that.
We have today the most phenomenal working together of scientists from geology, geophysics, engineering, chemistry, oceanography, climatology, mathematic modeling, statistic, probability, biology, waste management, economics and every government planning body who come together on the massive economic consequences of the climate changes we're facing.
New Orleans is just a tiny taster.
It's not just heating bills it's how to find drinking water?
It's what to do with a 100,000 angry people who have no jobs and future and want to kill you for it.
Global warming isn't just a matter of adjusting some thermostat or budgeting for the heating bill!
Our very premises for how many babies we should have, how markets grow, who does out dirty manufacturing and more has to be looked at again.
Yes, there's an economic side to this, but the ecological side of it is awful.
Asher
It doesn't really work out like that.
We have today the most phenomenal working together of scientists from geology, geophysics, engineering, chemistry, oceanography, climatology, mathematic modeling, statistic, probability, biology, waste management, economics and every government planning body who come together on the massive economic consequences of the climate changes we're facing.
New Orleans is just a tiny taster.
It's not just heating bills it's how to find drinking water?
It's what to do with a 100,000 angry people who have no jobs and future and want to kill you for it.
Global warming isn't just a matter of adjusting some thermostat or budgeting for the heating bill!
Our very premises for how many babies we should have, how markets grow, who does out dirty manufacturing and more has to be looked at again.
Yes, there's an economic side to this, but the ecological side of it is awful.
Asher
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Nicolas,
Alas! You want to equate the loss of the dinosaurs with the loss of their descendants, the birds.
"Hello, hello, Nicolas, are you O.K. there in the dark coal mine, a mile underground lost with no mine parrot to watch because you did not look after it?
Mon ami, That still bird was the sentinel!"
In the coalmine, the birds told miners that there was enough oxygen and so the miners would be fine too.
In the planet, the birds are our own sentinels. When there is a bloody die-out of thousands of species because we polluted the rivers and the insects brought that to the frogs and to the birds, then we killed them too.
Sure over hundreds of millions of years the dinosaurs ruled and then vanished. We're here for 50,000 years, that's all. We wont even make it to 1% of the dinosaur success.
In breast cancer, the infestation of lymphatics and lymph nodes in the armpits is not the cause of death and in itself can be tackled well. However, it's an ominous sign of the serious ness of the human condition and that millions of potentially lethal cells have already escaped and gone past freely and that a battle for life itself is underway.
Same with the current massive extinction that we are amongst. The bird’s loss is our warning!
Asher
Alas! You want to equate the loss of the dinosaurs with the loss of their descendants, the birds.
"Hello, hello, Nicolas, are you O.K. there in the dark coal mine, a mile underground lost with no mine parrot to watch because you did not look after it?
Mon ami, That still bird was the sentinel!"
In the coalmine, the birds told miners that there was enough oxygen and so the miners would be fine too.
In the planet, the birds are our own sentinels. When there is a bloody die-out of thousands of species because we polluted the rivers and the insects brought that to the frogs and to the birds, then we killed them too.
Sure over hundreds of millions of years the dinosaurs ruled and then vanished. We're here for 50,000 years, that's all. We wont even make it to 1% of the dinosaur success.
In breast cancer, the infestation of lymphatics and lymph nodes in the armpits is not the cause of death and in itself can be tackled well. However, it's an ominous sign of the serious ness of the human condition and that millions of potentially lethal cells have already escaped and gone past freely and that a battle for life itself is underway.
Same with the current massive extinction that we are amongst. The bird’s loss is our warning!
Asher
Paul Bestwick
pro member
Asher,
I nominate we eliminate all birdlife. That way we will rid ourselves of the worriesome burden that we may inadvertently kill them all off.........& while we are at it......
Paul
I nominate we eliminate all birdlife. That way we will rid ourselves of the worriesome burden that we may inadvertently kill them all off.........& while we are at it......
Paul
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Oh, Paul,
in case you were going to add amphibians to the list, we are currently seeing projected loss of up to 70% of the worlds frogs toads and their bros! Partly man's fault, part due to a fungus among us!
So if you have an appetite for frogs legs or toad flambé, then consume all you can while they're still in abundance!
I heard you are an avid consumerist!
Do not think of receiving a 1DIII. They're hazardous. Don't even undo the box, you will lose all judgment and sense of the real danger you are in!
As soon as the package arrives, just send it my way and be assured it will bother you no more! I am this willing to extend myself for you!
Asher
in case you were going to add amphibians to the list, we are currently seeing projected loss of up to 70% of the worlds frogs toads and their bros! Partly man's fault, part due to a fungus among us!
So if you have an appetite for frogs legs or toad flambé, then consume all you can while they're still in abundance!
I heard you are an avid consumerist!
Do not think of receiving a 1DIII. They're hazardous. Don't even undo the box, you will lose all judgment and sense of the real danger you are in!
As soon as the package arrives, just send it my way and be assured it will bother you no more! I am this willing to extend myself for you!
Asher
Richard McNeil
New member
Asher,
The main reason for New Orleans had to do with the building of the Levies. They stoped the mud flow into the Gulf so the dunes (or whatever they are called) decreased in size. That allowed the Hurrican to hit MUCH harder than "normal". I would highly recommend a documentry called The Hurrican which address this specific issue.
Richard
Tim Dolan (Longwatcher)
Member
My thoughts on "Global warming"
There are three separate issues:
1. Global warming/cooling
2. Man's influence on the environment
3. Man's influence on current Global warming.
As to #1: I would like to point out that at times in the past the earth has been far warmer then it was today, including periods where humans existed. Greenland being a fine example - it got its name from being green, not covered in ICE. So the fact that we happen to be in a warming trend does not necessarily mean that it is outside of a normal occurance for the planet which has existed for quite sime time before we showed up and especially in the short period of time we have had anything resembling accurate records.
As to #2: Yep, we affect the environment in negative ways and I for one would like to reduce both mine and others influence on the environment in a joint effort to protect it. I would like to see environmentaly designed products and technologies coming to fruition (such as solar power roofs (whole things - replace the shingles - make it mandatory ). I would also like to see industrial pollution reduced not just in the US, but around the world. Of note as a percentage of energy produced the US is one of the lowest producers of pollution on the planet, however in total we tend to be one of the larger. I would like to see the percentage reduced around the world.
As to #3: As far as I am concerned the issue is in doubt based on what I have read about temperature assesments from more then 1000 years in the past. Also of note that I don't hear a lot about is we are apparently approaching a magnetic pole shift which is probably messing everything up as well. And that is definately not man-made or influenced.
Just my opinion, now back to photography.
There are three separate issues:
1. Global warming/cooling
2. Man's influence on the environment
3. Man's influence on current Global warming.
As to #1: I would like to point out that at times in the past the earth has been far warmer then it was today, including periods where humans existed. Greenland being a fine example - it got its name from being green, not covered in ICE. So the fact that we happen to be in a warming trend does not necessarily mean that it is outside of a normal occurance for the planet which has existed for quite sime time before we showed up and especially in the short period of time we have had anything resembling accurate records.
As to #2: Yep, we affect the environment in negative ways and I for one would like to reduce both mine and others influence on the environment in a joint effort to protect it. I would like to see environmentaly designed products and technologies coming to fruition (such as solar power roofs (whole things - replace the shingles - make it mandatory ). I would also like to see industrial pollution reduced not just in the US, but around the world. Of note as a percentage of energy produced the US is one of the lowest producers of pollution on the planet, however in total we tend to be one of the larger. I would like to see the percentage reduced around the world.
As to #3: As far as I am concerned the issue is in doubt based on what I have read about temperature assesments from more then 1000 years in the past. Also of note that I don't hear a lot about is we are apparently approaching a magnetic pole shift which is probably messing everything up as well. And that is definately not man-made or influenced.
Just my opinion, now back to photography.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Tim,
The back-to-photography ending of your informed remarks does bring us full circle!
It's in large part photographs that have documented everything we talk about: ecological disruptions, and the disasters of the hurricanes, flooding, hunger, starvation and land shifts that we have witnessed.
1. Global warming: we agree that's a fact: naturally caused in long cycles with periodic re-setting of the earths magnetic and actual axis adding their own effects. The recent sharp rose in temperatures is extraordinary and undeniably, with at least 90% certainty, caused by our own actions, CO2, methane from domestics ungulates and a litany industrial gases.
2. Global Pollution: alongside #1 the effluents to our rivers have polluted, poisoned and pretty well wiped out or fragmented habitats all over the world.
3. Significance of Biosustainability to man. The die-off in birds and amphibians are sentinel events to our own vulnerability.
Role of Photographers: Professional agencies use photography to document, measure and interpret all the changes we are currently seeing. Nature photographers, Travelers to the Arctic and Antarctic, the forests of Africa and lakes and streams all over the planet bring back to us the reality of climate change and our harm to nature globally.
Photography can help us get clean and green!
Now, as you say, back to photography!
Asher
The back-to-photography ending of your informed remarks does bring us full circle!
It's in large part photographs that have documented everything we talk about: ecological disruptions, and the disasters of the hurricanes, flooding, hunger, starvation and land shifts that we have witnessed.
1. Global warming: we agree that's a fact: naturally caused in long cycles with periodic re-setting of the earths magnetic and actual axis adding their own effects. The recent sharp rose in temperatures is extraordinary and undeniably, with at least 90% certainty, caused by our own actions, CO2, methane from domestics ungulates and a litany industrial gases.
2. Global Pollution: alongside #1 the effluents to our rivers have polluted, poisoned and pretty well wiped out or fragmented habitats all over the world.
3. Significance of Biosustainability to man. The die-off in birds and amphibians are sentinel events to our own vulnerability.
Role of Photographers: Professional agencies use photography to document, measure and interpret all the changes we are currently seeing. Nature photographers, Travelers to the Arctic and Antarctic, the forests of Africa and lakes and streams all over the planet bring back to us the reality of climate change and our harm to nature globally.
Photography can help us get clean and green!
Now, as you say, back to photography!
Asher
Tony Bonanno
pro member
Geesh !!
I've been too busy to check in for awhile, but now that I have, WOW, what a thread ! Good to see the discussion and pleased that it appears mostly civil.
Prior to my photography career, I spent a lot of time on the "green side" and have a graduate degree in Geosciences.
Personally, I think global warming is VERY real and probably the most serious environmental issue facing the human species today.
I once heard the late Dr. Louis Leakey speak about the "psycho-social" evolution of the human species. He suggested that the critical issue for humans was how we were evolving intellectually. He questioned whether we would have the capacity to use technology for the betterment of the planet and ultimate health of the species.. OR, would we fall in the trap of short term gains at the expense of catastrophic long term consequences...
What do you think ?
Cheers,
Tony Bonanno
I've been too busy to check in for awhile, but now that I have, WOW, what a thread ! Good to see the discussion and pleased that it appears mostly civil.
Prior to my photography career, I spent a lot of time on the "green side" and have a graduate degree in Geosciences.
Personally, I think global warming is VERY real and probably the most serious environmental issue facing the human species today.
I once heard the late Dr. Louis Leakey speak about the "psycho-social" evolution of the human species. He suggested that the critical issue for humans was how we were evolving intellectually. He questioned whether we would have the capacity to use technology for the betterment of the planet and ultimate health of the species.. OR, would we fall in the trap of short term gains at the expense of catastrophic long term consequences...
What do you think ?
Cheers,
Tony Bonanno
I have just seen an 1 1/2 hour video on Channel 4 in UK, entitled ' The Great Global Warming Swindle'. I did my best to take notes, but have 3 or 4 pages of scribble. It said that the temperatures _lead_ the CO2 levels by about 800 years, based on samples from drilling's in the ice caps. This is supported by several surveys. A question of Al confusing cause and effect, I guess. Volcanoes and dying vegetation contribute a large amount to CO2, but most comes from the oceans. It can take thousands of years for climate temperature to effect the oceans, due to mass of ocean. The biggest contribution to green house gas is water vapour. About the only thing that effects global temperature is the sun, there is a high correlation between sunspots and temperature, virtually none between CO2 and temperature. A Swedish scientist? (I didn't note his name) was more or less the first public figure to mention CO2, and he said he thought that the industrial release of CO2 _may_ help reverse the cooling effects - this was in the 1970's, when the next ice age was being foretold.
The political take up, the ensuing hype which persists today was due to Maggie Thatcher and the Berlin Wall.
Many of the facts I can verify, I well remember Maggie, and I do know something about electricity generation. I have more notes than stated here, most of the speakers were, as far as I can tell, genuine. A couple were Nigel Calder, a former New Scientist editor; and Patrick Moore(sp?), the co-founder of Greenpeace.
It is now a multi-billion dollar industry, mainly funded by western governments, with a possible agenda of preventing the industrial development of Africa, and other non-industrial countries. (You can't run a steel mill, or a railway on windmills and solar panels, even if you could afford them).
I'm not sure if any of the video is on line, or whether it will be shown elsewhere.
Best wishes,
Ray
The political take up, the ensuing hype which persists today was due to Maggie Thatcher and the Berlin Wall.
Many of the facts I can verify, I well remember Maggie, and I do know something about electricity generation. I have more notes than stated here, most of the speakers were, as far as I can tell, genuine. A couple were Nigel Calder, a former New Scientist editor; and Patrick Moore(sp?), the co-founder of Greenpeace.
It is now a multi-billion dollar industry, mainly funded by western governments, with a possible agenda of preventing the industrial development of Africa, and other non-industrial countries. (You can't run a steel mill, or a railway on windmills and solar panels, even if you could afford them).
I'm not sure if any of the video is on line, or whether it will be shown elsewhere.
Best wishes,
Ray
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Ray, Let me address the last part, since it exposes more than anything the sheer ignorant, naive and irresponsible claptrap spewed merely as represented by your report.**
The Kyoto agreement allows even China and India, massively growing industrial powers to continue to pollute. That in fact, is what causes the clouds of chemical soot and droplets that own much of the skies in the rapidly consuming eastern economies.
African countries are not, TTBOMK, involved in the same way as they are protected from most of the regulations. So it is plane nonsense and an almost a religious obsession against the Western governments to talk of some evil motive.
Much of Africa has grown instutions of commerce, education, hospital care and even heavy industry that are competant, vibrant and self sustaining.
African countries are, however, pulled down by a number of issues that even predate colonialism*. One of them is hostility between cultures. For example, Nigeria, the area that boasted the marvelous kingdom of Benin, where bronze art marvels were cast by lost wax technology way ahead of most other cultures, friction between Yoruba, Hausa and Ibo ways of life to a considerable extent hold the nation back as well as corruption and poor distribution of oil wealth.
African nations are now pulled down by education and clean water without planning for exploding populations that result in cities, as villages are no longer fit for the educated young people. The loss is the cultural values developed over thousands of years to enrich and nurture people.
So people who flood to the cities away from self-sustaining communities, are exposed. Yes they might become fulfilled and get rich or else they might be dragged down to alcohol, crime, loss of self worth that is the loss of yet another generation and repeated all over the world, even in the largest Western cities.
All this has nothing to do with Kyoto and threats of Global Warming. To think otherwise is far-fetched and delusional at the very least.
Now add to all this the crippling effects of poor government, such as in Zimbabwe, where a food exporting state has been reduced to poverty by a foolish dictatorship or the tragedy of aids in societies where the solution is sex with a young girl and 30 percent of much more are infected with this scourge. Add then the centuries old tribal hatreds in Sudan, Congo and the bestial barbarism of child soldiers with machetes slicing off limbs and faces in Sierra Leone and Northern Uganda, there is no need to look for other causes of misfortune.
I'd really like to see how Climate Change discussion is some real threat to them. On the contrary, recognizing and then accommodating to Global Warming might avert further humanitarian disasters.
The shame of the West is not the recognition of Global Warming, rather the devaluation of suffering at the hands of thugs that has allowed, (under the guise of "Non-interference in "Internal Affairs of Sovereign Countries"), continued brutalization of millions of innocents.
Still no western armies in the Sudan to protect the millions of brutalized, robbed, raped, burned and dispossessed black people of Darfur. Why? Because no one wants to hold the Sudan Government accountable. Why? Whose friends have the oil we need? Whose friends can buy our goods? So the Blacks, with no leverage elicit just a few tears.
Where are the protesters against Bush in Iraq (where thousands are killed) in being outraged at the deaths of ten times that number in Darfur alone? You see, we have selective outrage. Darfur, like da fur coats, is not really fashionable with the far left. To be of concern, real concern, first the suffering must be attributable to the Americans. Everyone else gets a pass in this wicked practice of "selective outrage" To me, all life is equally precious.
Asher
*You might talk of slavery, on which Dutch, spanish, Portuguese and British wealth grew for up to 100 years. Well, you might not know thart capturing other African men, women and children as slaves has been done for centuries by stronger tribal groups. There were 3 markets: internal, then Arab traders that dominated East Africa and then of course the Dutch, French and British and other trading ships plying the coasts of West Africa (convenient to the European continent), which took advantage of this rape of weaker peoples.
***The rest we can hold pending identifying the video which I'd be happy to study. However, for now put it aside and in the category of "There was no landing on the Moon", The 911 attack did not occur", "The world was created just about 5800 years ago" "Evolution is a religious belief" and Hobbits built the Tower of london, you know what I mean. However, don't think I am pushing things aside just like that with no accountability! when the video is found, we'll revist!
The Kyoto agreement allows even China and India, massively growing industrial powers to continue to pollute. That in fact, is what causes the clouds of chemical soot and droplets that own much of the skies in the rapidly consuming eastern economies.
African countries are not, TTBOMK, involved in the same way as they are protected from most of the regulations. So it is plane nonsense and an almost a religious obsession against the Western governments to talk of some evil motive.
Much of Africa has grown instutions of commerce, education, hospital care and even heavy industry that are competant, vibrant and self sustaining.
African countries are, however, pulled down by a number of issues that even predate colonialism*. One of them is hostility between cultures. For example, Nigeria, the area that boasted the marvelous kingdom of Benin, where bronze art marvels were cast by lost wax technology way ahead of most other cultures, friction between Yoruba, Hausa and Ibo ways of life to a considerable extent hold the nation back as well as corruption and poor distribution of oil wealth.
African nations are now pulled down by education and clean water without planning for exploding populations that result in cities, as villages are no longer fit for the educated young people. The loss is the cultural values developed over thousands of years to enrich and nurture people.
So people who flood to the cities away from self-sustaining communities, are exposed. Yes they might become fulfilled and get rich or else they might be dragged down to alcohol, crime, loss of self worth that is the loss of yet another generation and repeated all over the world, even in the largest Western cities.
All this has nothing to do with Kyoto and threats of Global Warming. To think otherwise is far-fetched and delusional at the very least.
Now add to all this the crippling effects of poor government, such as in Zimbabwe, where a food exporting state has been reduced to poverty by a foolish dictatorship or the tragedy of aids in societies where the solution is sex with a young girl and 30 percent of much more are infected with this scourge. Add then the centuries old tribal hatreds in Sudan, Congo and the bestial barbarism of child soldiers with machetes slicing off limbs and faces in Sierra Leone and Northern Uganda, there is no need to look for other causes of misfortune.
I'd really like to see how Climate Change discussion is some real threat to them. On the contrary, recognizing and then accommodating to Global Warming might avert further humanitarian disasters.
The shame of the West is not the recognition of Global Warming, rather the devaluation of suffering at the hands of thugs that has allowed, (under the guise of "Non-interference in "Internal Affairs of Sovereign Countries"), continued brutalization of millions of innocents.
Still no western armies in the Sudan to protect the millions of brutalized, robbed, raped, burned and dispossessed black people of Darfur. Why? Because no one wants to hold the Sudan Government accountable. Why? Whose friends have the oil we need? Whose friends can buy our goods? So the Blacks, with no leverage elicit just a few tears.
Where are the protesters against Bush in Iraq (where thousands are killed) in being outraged at the deaths of ten times that number in Darfur alone? You see, we have selective outrage. Darfur, like da fur coats, is not really fashionable with the far left. To be of concern, real concern, first the suffering must be attributable to the Americans. Everyone else gets a pass in this wicked practice of "selective outrage" To me, all life is equally precious.
Asher
*You might talk of slavery, on which Dutch, spanish, Portuguese and British wealth grew for up to 100 years. Well, you might not know thart capturing other African men, women and children as slaves has been done for centuries by stronger tribal groups. There were 3 markets: internal, then Arab traders that dominated East Africa and then of course the Dutch, French and British and other trading ships plying the coasts of West Africa (convenient to the European continent), which took advantage of this rape of weaker peoples.
***The rest we can hold pending identifying the video which I'd be happy to study. However, for now put it aside and in the category of "There was no landing on the Moon", The 911 attack did not occur", "The world was created just about 5800 years ago" "Evolution is a religious belief" and Hobbits built the Tower of london, you know what I mean. However, don't think I am pushing things aside just like that with no accountability! when the video is found, we'll revist!
Ferenc Harmat
New member
Well, it turns out that....
...If you plot the temperature ramp-up with the CO2 levels, the mystery deepens even further: almost perfectly correlated. That is temperature rise on the past 150 years comes out almost perfectly correlated with the rise of human activity, pollution and CO/CO2 production...
But what really, really worries me is the fact that, when you see BIG, LARGE companies like EXXON visibily and vocally cutting their ties and connections with the "skepticals", and now joining forces with the "believers", it makes you wonder how SERIOUS the problem is... And I mean worried, because as soon this happens, the underlying issue is typically far, far advanced in development and complecity (too far to be corrected in the short term), and may be signalling potential economic troubles/downturns for these companies (which they may try to early-avoid), as well as irreversible environmental damage.
Just my 0.02 on what seems plain, simple and evidently obvious.
...If you plot the temperature ramp-up with the CO2 levels, the mystery deepens even further: almost perfectly correlated. That is temperature rise on the past 150 years comes out almost perfectly correlated with the rise of human activity, pollution and CO/CO2 production...
But what really, really worries me is the fact that, when you see BIG, LARGE companies like EXXON visibily and vocally cutting their ties and connections with the "skepticals", and now joining forces with the "believers", it makes you wonder how SERIOUS the problem is... And I mean worried, because as soon this happens, the underlying issue is typically far, far advanced in development and complecity (too far to be corrected in the short term), and may be signalling potential economic troubles/downturns for these companies (which they may try to early-avoid), as well as irreversible environmental damage.
Just my 0.02 on what seems plain, simple and evidently obvious.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Even when we take into account Methane released from the ocean and other natural sources, the change in the magnetic pole and the axis of the earth's rotation and more, the human causality is pretty well correlated to 95% certainty (would have been 99% but for lobbying by industrial giants and polluting nations, gues who, not the USA!
Exxon and Shell have been trying to be on the right side of public opinion. These guys have made more profit that any business in history! however, they see the tide has started to shift and all of the following are true at the same time:
1. We are not prepared to have nuclear wars to guarantee oil.
2. The whole world economy is threatened with widespread hunger, wars and disruptions of supplies and markets. Oil is not the future, it is the past lasting for another 30 years perhaps, who knows?
3. Some oil suppliers may have been lying about how much oil there is. We may be ending up short and depending even more on nutcase regimes who'll ferment violence with the revenue.
4. We are about to move to Nuclear energy and they want to be part of it not the enemies of it.
5. They don't give a damn whether or not they are contributing to global Warming they just want to appear as pro-ecology as part of their usual PR crap so they don't get taxed on their trillions!
Asher
If you wish to rephrase the above, or link to the ** then I may consider answering the rest of the queries you have raised, concerning the video. Just because a point of view does not agree with yours, or the majority, does not mean it is wrong. The people concerned were well qualified in their particular field. I have only presented a very small part of the program, I am reluctant to mention anything about it any further, since it seems to irritate your pre-conceived ideas.
The program was concerning global warming, not pollution, not much on other world issues, just about how the current frenzy re global warming has arose.
Best wishes,
Ray
John_Nevill
New member
Well, according to a documentary run on channel 4 (UK) last night, this theory is being challenged by many scientists. In fact the co-founder of greenpeace was among them. What Al Gore failed to mention was lag.
The stats show a 200+ lag between CO2 and temp rise. the main temp rise was up to the 1940s and then it dropped until the mid 70s and then started to rise again. However, temp rise does correleate nicely with solar activity.
OK on a slightly tangential note, why does the media always attribute severe weather (hurricanes, tornadoa and flooding) with global warming. Most elementary text books state that severe weather correlates to the signficant temp differential between poles and equator. So if global warming is truly happening then surely this differential is narrowing, which should result in less sever weather.
To be honest I don't know who to beleive, I do know that extreme amounts of money and political power is put behind anything that relates to global warming.
Dont't get me wrong. I was global warming convert, but the programme I saw last night put a very strong case forward suggesting that its a swindle!
Obviously Ray saw the same programme.