Coronavirus

[Jerome Marot]

I'm calm, Jerome. Truly.
I just get a little annoyed with Asher from time to time.
Surely you can understand that.
The safest place for me is right here.

I can certainly understand that, as I was not excluding myself from what was a global warning. Under stress, I tend to be terse and sarcastic and people have become upset at times. But, as a forum like this one will be one of our few left sources of social contacts and help us all not going insane from confinement, we'll have have to put up with others little quirks, won't we?

 

[Jerome Marot]

Well not exactly. We already have several different Skelton frameworks to attach the novel antigens too. Just simple molecular biology andctrial and error!

Not so simple and errors means the death of thousands.

But the good news:

Coronavirus slowing down http://bit.ly/2Uasidc Turns our that after several weeks, you can no longer infect over two new people every few days as these are mostly the same folk you bump into every day.

Also, on the cruise ships with common air and dining rooms, 80% didn’t get infected!

All that article demonstrates is that one can have a Nobel prize for chemistry and still be a fool. Of course an exponential progression will slow down after a few iterations. Of course not everybody dies. Can we just have posts which make sense, please? There, I'll start with one: make sure you do not have anemia: ORF8 and Surface Glycoprotein Inhibit Heme Metabolism by Binding to Porphyrin

 

[James Lemon]

Not so simple and errors means the death of thousands.



All that article demonstrates is that one can have a Nobel prize for chemistry and still be a fool. Of course an exponential progression will slow down after a few iterations. Of course not everybody dies. Can we just have posts which make sense, please? There, I'll start with one: make sure you do not have anemia: ORF8 and Surface Glycoprotein Inhibit Heme Metabolism by Binding to Porphyrin

That would be impossible for some considering anyone who has ever had a splenectomy would not have a red blood cell reservoir.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Not so simple and errors means the death of thousands.



All that article demonstrates is that one can have a Nobel prize for chemistry and still be a fool. Of course an exponential progression will slow down after a few iterations. Of course not everybody dies. Can we just have posts which make sense, please? There, I'll start with one: make sure you do not have anemia: ORF8 and Surface Glycoprotein Inhibit Heme Metabolism by Binding to Porphyrin

Leaving Levit aside for now, your link is fascinating. It mentions chloroquine blocking the suspected noxious effects of virus proteins on hemoglobin needed for oxygen transport. This really seems to fit in with what we already know!

I have been avidly following rather interesting work using choroguine to fight coronavirus. In a randomized study in China, Choroquine decreased severity and length of disease in hospitalized patients.

To support this, chloroquine stops virus attachment in tissue cultures and also cell to cell spread.

I am advising folk to get a prescription for 500 mg of chloroquine once a week for 6 months but not take any! If someone gets ill with the virus then discuss with your own physician taking the medicine in the dosage for acute malaria according to the Mayo Clinic recommendations for treatment of acute malaria. This theoretically might allow one to shorten the wait to get these pills, (should it be so advised down the road), as at that time, supply chains may not be ramped up to meet demand.

I am not giving you this as your medical advice, just scientific information to use or not. I can’t replace your own physician and besides being a Professor of Microbiology and Physician, I am retired from active practice.

I still endeavor to be up to date, but of course cannot match the current top experts!

Asher

 

[Dr Klaus Schmitt]

Within 6 months there will be drugs. Vaccines by 18 months!

No more than 1 million deaths in the USA.

Asher

True, as there is a German company CureVac working on a vaccine which Gates foundation have invested
a lot money into and TRUMP just wanted to secure it EXCLUSIVELY for the US - which they of course refused

 

[Asher Kelman]

...and of course ideas will evolve as the math improves and we get antibody data as well as the reverse transcriptase tests to know actual past infections and what percentage the drive through reverse transcriptase tests discovered to be positive and the chances of infection spread over time.

As we get data, models are being remade every day by many organizations.

Back to Levy, Jérôme, do you reject all his interpretations?

 

[Jerome Marot]

I am advising folk to get a prescription for 500 mg of chloroquine once a week for 6 months but not take any! If someone gets ill with the virus then discuss with your own physician taking the medicine in the dosage for acute malaria according to the Mayo Clinic recommendations for treatment of acute malaria. This theoretically might allow one to shorten the wait to get these pills, (should it be so advised down the road), as at that time, supply chains may not be ramped up to meet demand.

Now you are getting me really upset. You are suggesting that, I, a person at no particular risk of complications, start hoarding a medicine that may be life saving to others? Tell me it is not true.

 

[Jerome Marot]

Can we all please go back to common sense?

There is no vaccine and there won't be any this year.
There is also little chance of a treatment for the masses. For the critical, China is apparently using the antibodies of survivors, but there is only so much and it has its own risks.

Most people survive, but we want to reduce the number of unlucky ones. We also want to "flatten the curve" so that hospitals are not hopelessly overwhelmed.

Anyone can be infectious without symptoms. I could be shedding viruses now. You could be. Everybody should take care not to spread viruses: keep distance to others, refrain from handshakes, avoid mass gatherings, restaurants, etc... Signs of infection are difficult to take apart from a common cold, so be especially careful if you feel like you are starting a cold. But don't panic: it may really be a simple cold, this is also the season.

The virus transmits mainly by contact. It survives on surfaces, objects. But this particular virus is sensitive to cleaning (I understand that the virus envelope is made of lipids). About any cleaning material will kill it, there is no need for advanced disinfectant. Wash your hands, normal soap will do. Wash them after having be in any public place: shops, transport, etc...

Your immune system is the best barrier. Try to nudge it a good way. Take vitamins, you may be a bit low after winter. Take iron supplements if you are a little low. Quit or at least reduce smoking or vaping, as people die from lung failure, there is a strong comorbidity with nicotine. Do what it takes not to succumb to panic, stress wrecks your immune system. Keep social contacts even on house arrest. Try to exercise regularly, particularly if on house arrest. Organise yourself now for a long vacation at home, maybe get some good books.

 

[James Lemon]

Leaving Levit aside for now, your link is fascinating. It mentions chloroquine blocking the suspected noxious effects of virus proteins on hemoglobin needed for oxygen transport. This really seems to fit in with what we already know!

I have been avidly following rather interesting work using choroguine to fight coronavirus. In a randomized study in China, Choroquine decreased severity and length of disease in hospitalized patients.

To support this, chloroquine stops virus attachment in tissue cultures and also cell to cell spread.

I am advising folk to get a prescription for 500 mg of chloroquine once a week for 6 months but not take any! If someone gets ill with the virus then discuss with your own physician taking the medicine in the dosage for acute malaria according to the Mayo Clinic recommendations for treatment of acute malaria. This theoretically might allow one to shorten the wait to get these pills, (should it be so advised down the road), as at that time, supply chains may not be ramped up to meet demand.

I am not giving you this as your medical advice, just scientific information to use or not. I can’t replace your own physician and besides being a Professor of Microbiology and Physician, I am retired from active practice.

I still endeavor to be up to date, but of course cannot match the current top experts!

Asher

Hi Asher

I have taken drugs that have never been proven to work but on the advice of my physician telling me that it wont hurt to take them so I have followed the advice without any problems. Yet another doctor might say don't bother because it has not been proven to work. My question is to you why not take 500mg of chloroquine now rather than later. If there are no adverse effects from it what would be the harm?

Best, regards
James

 

[James Lemon]

Can we all please go back to common sense?

There is no vaccine and there won't be any this year.
There is also little chance of a treatment for the masses. For the critical, China is apparently using the antibodies of survivors, but there is only so much and it has its own risks.

Most people survive, but we want to reduce the number of unlucky ones. We also want to "flatten the curve" so that hospitals are not hopelessly overwhelmed.

Anyone can be infectious without symptoms. I could be shedding viruses now. You could be. Everybody should take care not to spread viruses: keep distance to others, refrain from handshakes, avoid mass gatherings, restaurants, etc... Signs of infection are difficult to take apart from a common cold, so be especially careful if you feel like you are starting a cold. But don't panic: it may really be a simple cold, this is also the season.

The virus transmits mainly by contact. It survives on surfaces, objects. But this particular virus is sensitive to cleaning. About any cleaning material will kill it, there is no need for advanced disinfectant. Wash your hands, normal soap will do. Wash them after having be in any public place: shops, transport, etc...

Your immune system is the best barrier. Try to nudge it a good way. Take vitamins, you may be a bit low after winter. Take iron supplements if you are a little low. Quit or at least reduce smoking or vaping, as people die from lung failure, there is a strong comorbidity with nicotine. Do what it takes not to succumb to panic, stress wrecks your immune system. Keep social contacts even on house arrest. Try to exercise regularly, particularly if on house arrest. Organise yourself now for a long vacation at home, maybe get some good books.

All good advice Jerome! But rather than try to flatten the curve to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed would it not be prudent for the government to secure other assets? Government buildings, gymnasiums, and other suitable facilities to treat critical patients as a contingency plan because hospital beds are already few and far between.

 

[Jerome Marot]

All good advice Jerome! But rather than try to flatten the curve to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed would it not be prudent for the government to secure other assets. Government buildings, gymnasiums, and other suitable facilities to treat critical patients as a contingency plan because hospital beds are already few and far between.

We don't need buildings. We need respirators. I suppose manufacturing has been increased as far as possible, but they are complex machines and there are only so many.

 

[James Lemon]

We don't need buildings. We need respirators. I suppose manufacturing has been increased as far as possible, but they are complex machines and there are only so many.

From what I have understood is that there is a huge lack of supply of trained medical staff to operate the equipment in the UK.

“Whilst NHS hospitals make emergency plans to create ITU [intensive treatment unit] beds and the government purchases more ventilators, the elephant in the room is the lack of highly trained intensive care nurses and doctors. The NHS faces this pandemic on a background of severe understaffing with almost 43,000 nurse and 10,000 doctor vacancies. It is pointless acquiring new ventilators without enough highly trained staff to operate them.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...d-to-consider-switching-to-making-ventilators

 

[Asher Kelman]

Now you are getting me really upset. You are suggesting that, I, a person at no particular risk of complications, start hoarding a medicine that may be life saving to others? Tell me it is not true.

No, not not at all unless you have a risk such as being over 70 with congestive heart failure. There is no shortage of choloquine anywhere. It’s a common anti-malarial, not much used, at $25 a hundred pills!

However, many pharmacies have not heard of it unless they have folk that travel to endemic areas.

Hoarding is unfairly taking more than your share of limited goods. Chloroquine is not a limited item. The treatment would be experimental and most doctors would be frightened to prescribe it for the virus. However if one is deadly ill, from when a request is made for an unusual drug, it could take a day or a week for it to arrive from the one warehouse nearest to you that has it in bulk.

That delay would mean that the drug, likely as not would arrive too late to have benefit.

I would take it myself as I know the drug and have used in Africa a lot.

Unless the CDC in the USA or China recommends the drug for those with pneumonia, the demand will be nothing at all!

We only but food and supplies we need right now. But if one is at severe risk and would ask the doctor at the time of illness about a try of this drug, unless you have it already, there is little point in even raising the subjects. Here 5 out of 6 pharmacies asked me to spell it! One can get it.

But I found there is ample supply!

Asher

 

[Asher Kelman]

We don't need buildings. We need respirators. I suppose manufacturing has been increased as far as possible, but they are complex machines and there are only so many.

You might mean mechanized automatic machine ventilators. Respirators are just sealed filters with an exit valve.

The UK government is having certain military weapon MFRS try to switch to making the needed respirators. Here we have far more ventilator-intensive care beds than any European country. About double or more, but we still will be challenged unless we slow down the rate of inevitable spread to allow hospital facilities workers to not be overwhelmed exhausted and collapse on their jobs as in Italy!

The UK is planning to convert hotels to extra beds for hospitals. The government there doesn’t believe Britishers can withstand more than 12 weeks of home isolation so they have delayed issuing stay at home compulsory orders.

The key is to have tests immediately available and the Mers, Sars and Ebola breakouts should have educated governments that the scientists and epidemiologists must be given lead roles and not be suppressed as in both in the USA and unfortunately, it now seems, the UK too.

Here, for every announcement by the officials they have a North Korea propaganda-like statement, thanking our brilliant leader, Donald Trump for being so foresighted and on his own initiative taking the proven steps to save the population.

I’m listening and am horrified that grown educated and articulate men could be so obsequious to an uneducated, anti-science lying narcissist man like Donald Trump!

....and at the news conferences, all the experts huddle around the platform, nodding their heads, barely 6” separating them if anything!

Asher

 

[Asher Kelman]

Hi Asher

I have taken drugs that have never been proven to work but on the advice of my physician telling me that it wont hurt to take them so I have followed the advice without any problems. Yet another doctor might say don't bother because it has not been proven to work. My question is to you why not take 500mg of chloroquine now rather than later. If there are no adverse effects from it what would be the harm?

Best, regards
James

I don’t think there is any harm. A very small percentage of chloroquine takers get bad dreams! You can test yourself with 250 mg and then the following week with 500 mg.

I would take it if I was in charge of a hospital response team as the masks still allow 10% to be infected. I would give folk a choice. I expect that at 500 mg percweek one might stop spread. But that's a guess.

Unless the doctor was over 50 and on the front line I wouldn’t recommend prophylaxis right now. There would be a heated debate I assure you but it should be considered based on the most up to date research results.

At the CDC and in the hallways of the Lancet Medical Journal in London, they already have the manuscripts for publication that will wake us up in the next month! So they are able to make plans based on studies we have no idea of. So my knowledge is close to up to date but not comprehensive enough!

We will have more data shortly as the Chinese and the CDC and perhaps others will start to publish anti HIV and Chloroquine results.

But going just on the current data I am getting chloroquine just in case, as I am in the most vulnerable group, knowing it will not deprive anyone else of their proven and needed medicine!

But in the weeks to come our knowledge base will be much better for such decision making.

Asher

 

[Asher Kelman]

It so happens that I am already on the drug, Losartin, an anti-hypertensive medication), which is currently in a National Institutes of Health Study for folk with mild COVID 19 illness.

Chloroquine is being tested as a prophylactic too as well as the HIV and Ebola antivirals!

Read more here!

If one is at great risk, total self-isolation is the only hard science method of prevention.

However, my expectations of value from drugs appears to be quite correct and worth paying attention to if you or a loved one are at increased risk.

In Israel over 1000 health workers are off the front lines and in quarantine. So there is a great argument for attempts at prophylaxis with drugs we already are totally familiar with. No doubt they will be used in the next few weeks as folk realize the tactical advantage of keeping first responders fit to work. The masks, unfortunately prevents 90% of infections. That’s not good enough!

Asher

 

[James Lemon]

I don’t think there is any harm. A very small percentage of chloroquine takers get bad dreams! You can test yourself with 250 mg and then the following week with 500 mg.

I would take it if I was in charge of a hospital response team as the masks still allow 10% to be infected. I would give folk a choice. I expect that at 500 mg percweek one might stop spread. But that's a guess.

Unless the doctor was over 50 and on the front line I wouldn’t recommend prophylaxis right now. There would be a heated debate I assure you but it should be considered based on the most up to date research results.

At the CDC and in the hallways of the Lancet Medical Journal in London, they already have the manuscripts for publication that will wake us up in the next month! So they are able to make plans based on studies we have no idea of. So my knowledge is close to up to date but not comprehensive enough!

We will have more data shortly as the Chinese and the CDC and perhaps others will start to publish anti HIV and Chloroquine results.

But going just on the current data I am getting chloroquine just in case, as I am in the most vulnerable group, knowing it will not deprive anyone else of their proven and needed medicine!

But in the weeks to come our knowledge base will be much better for such decision making.

Asher

Asher this may be of interest to you.

The UK government has banned the parallel export and “hoarding” of three drugs being used to treat coronavirus patients in China in anticipation of shortages in Britain following the Covid-19 pandemic.
The export of the US-based AbbVie’s Kaletra / Aluvia, a combination lopinavir and ritonavir, the generic drug chloroquine phosphate and the generic drug hydroxychloroquine is being restricted to meet the needs of UK patients, the government said.
Hydroxychloroquine was placed on the restricted list from 14 March and Kaletra and chloroquine phosphate were added on 26 February.
The three drugs are marketed for other indications but are being administered to Covid-19 patients in clinical trials in China. For a list of Covid-19 clinical trials, search the GlobalData Pharma Intelligence Center Clinical Trials database.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/parallel-export-covid-19/

 

[Asher Kelman]

Great! The world is waking up!

But we have no shortages of Choroquine!

Huge stocks in case we go to war!

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

The UK government has banned the parallel export and “hoarding” of three drugs being used to treat coronavirus patients in China in anticipation of shortages in Britain following the Covid-19 pandemic.

Thereby proving that they anticipate shortages if millions of people start to hoard it.

Back to pictures: a series on disinfection efforts across the world. https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2...infection-efforts-against-coronavirus/607810/

 

[Asher Kelman]

Thereby proving that they anticipate shortages if millions of people start to hoard it.

Back to pictures: a series on disinfection efforts across the world. https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2...infection-efforts-against-coronavirus/607810/

​

This does have the feeling of the circus coming to town! Seems even festive!
But can’t stop person to person spread.

Chances of virus surviving outside is minimal. Especially in the light! Chances of disinfectant have any added effect is close to zero!


As to the British and Chloroquine, someone in the UK woke up!

Drugs line chloroquine are in plentiful supply for potential foreign wars.

The new drugs are not!

I have been working on chloroquine literature for weeks.

It’s just 2 -4 months away from wide-scale prophylaxis for at least doctors and nurses as the toll has been too high! We just will have to wait for the trials under way to report. I personally would at least offer the doctors and nurses the option of the drug and explain why it might appear helpful.

Asher

 

[Asher Kelman]

As I expected, at least one country, Israel has approved chloroquine, (at the top of list of accelerated regulatory processing), for Emergency use in COVID-19 patients.

I believe one of these or another most easily manufactured and inexpensive drug, will be standardized for prophylaxis and treatment within the next 2 months.

The UK has, has several major manufacturers. This, if we are very, very fortunate, potentially could mean the taming of the pandemic.

Please go to your pharmacy and find out if they even have the tablets! It would be interesting to know!

Asher

 

[James Lemon]

I did a web search at London Drugs a big chain here in Canada. I searched for chloroquine tablets and all it found was a list of drawing tablets and computer tablets. Chloroquine by itself did not find any results.

 

[Asher Kelman]

I did a web search at London Drugs a big chain here in Canada. I searched for chloroquine tablets and all it found was a list of drawing tablets and computer tablets. Chloroquine by itself did not find any results.

The issue, James, might be that the UK is regulated as to what to prescribe today for a given condition. Choroquine is rather old fashioned as a top anti-malarial choice today.

So it's not available by prescription, but only “over the counter”.

I will let you know where mine comes from!

Asher

 

[Asher Kelman]

​

They have these prices reduced from a retail price of $1,200!!!

If your Dr wanted you to take a tabletcevery week, $76 for 30 weeks is not bad at all!

Asher

 

[nicolas claris]

Choroquine is actually tested in Marseille (France )

VIDÉO - Coronavirus : le traitement à la chloroquine testé à Marseille serait efficace - France Bleu

À l'Institut hospitalo-universitaire à Marseille, le Professeur Raoult annonce que les premiers essais de la chloroquine sont spectaculaires contre le coronavirus. Ce médicament est déjà utilisé contre le paludisme.

www.francebleu.fr

 

[nicolas claris]

A quick DEEPL translation:

At the Insitut Hospital-Universitaire in Marseille, Professor Raoult announces that the first trials of chloroquine are spectacular. This drug is already being used against malaria.

Professor Didier Raoult, Director of the IHU in Marseille
Professor Didier Raoult, Director of the IHU in Marseille © Maxppp - Valérie Vrel
In an 18-minute video recorded in front of his students in Marseille, Professor Raoult does not hide his satisfaction. In concrete terms, 24 coronavirus patients agreed to take Plaquenil, one of the commercial names for chloroquine. Only six days later, only 25% still carry the virus. While 90% of those who did not receive this treatment are still positive.

The students applaud the professor as he presented these results. "It's spectacular," the IHU director tells them. The average viral load with this virus is normally 20 days. And all the people who die from corona still have the virus. Not having it anymore changes the prognosis."

An inexpensive medication

This clinical trial has received approval from the health authorities to be conducted at IHU in Marseille, one of the reference centres for the coronavirus. The advantage of this drug if its efficacy is confirmed is that it is already known. To fight against malaria. And what's more, it is cheap.

 

[Jerome Marot]

They have these prices reduced from a retail price of $1,200!!!

Even so, 75$ is shockingly expensive. Standard price for 100 tablets at 200mg appears to be around 25€ in Germany: https://www.medipreis.de/preisvergl...en-100-st-emra-med-arzneimittel-gmbh-09519399

 

[Asher Kelman]

So 500mg tablets could be €0.62
Here it’s $2.50

As usual we pay far more for many medicines!

“Big Pharma”! They claim to the public here that it’s to cover research costs in the USA!

Asher

 

[Dr Klaus Schmitt]

Please be aware that CHLORQUINE has massive side effects to the heart and eyes especially - PLEASE READ CAREFULLY!!!

https://www.drugs.com/sfx/chloroquine-side-effects.html

 

[Jerome Marot]

Here curves and numbers ber country:

Coronavirus charts

Charts showing coronavirus growth in each country separately

mackuba.eu