Andy
Scientific skepticism is healthy. In fact, science by its very nature is skeptical. Your offer sounds rather vague either you can do it or you can't? However I would not be interested in 5% but if you could get that number down to about 1.5% to 3% you might get my attention.
Best, regards
James
James,
I have been a scientist all of my professional life. In medical research, where folks lives are on the line, we take a P value of < 0.05 as the limit of acceptability. (See the caveat below as a footnote).
Using this, (albeit artificial boundary), for plausibility, (not "proof", mind you), we have succeeded in advancing the quality and success of medical care as all new treatments are filtered this way.
Now you come up with a defiant new hurdle to jump over. But what is the logical or mathematical basis for this super-stringent test before you take interest, considering what is claimed to be at stake.
Moreover in the nearly 600 page report I referenced, the data has been stringently filtered and yet comes out as supporting the strong conclusion of serious and even life-threatening man-made climate change!
If you have seriously deadly pneumonia, (and other
antibiotics already didn't work), would you really
demand rigid proof that clindamycin would have more
than a 97.5% reliable certainty of saving your life?
Just to refresh your mind,
here is a discussion on plausibility and confidence limits to brush up on. Hopefully others will provide further clarification of what merits an approach to plausibility and approaching "certainty" or "proof" in scientific study.
A simple Trumpian brash dismissal of science, be it "round earth", "evolution", "gravitational waves" or "man-induced global warming", is unacceptable and self evident as flippant and ill-considered.
If, on the other hand, as a highly educated person and qualified engineer, you have derived some logical basis for your stringent tests of < 0.025 as the innacuracy you allow for proof of argument as to prediction of weather "accurately", then bring us up to speed.
Asher
* We have to also look at the p values for all the studies performed, not merely the ones accepted for publication on peer-reviewed prestigious medical journals. This is because only the most highly ranked medical centers tend to easily get published "negative" studies showing some treatment or drug has little value, whereas most well-documented research papers showing advances in treatment get easily published. However, there is perhaps a 5% chance that new drugs with positive benefit are not uniformly positive in say 100 studies from all sources. So that's why we need to know about all studies performed and not just the ones that are accepted for publications, as even 5% of useless drugs tested could falsely appear to be beneficial if enough tests are done, and as a positive test, this has an increased chance of being published!