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Major COVID-19 Swing to the Young!

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
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In the UK, the picture of COVID-19 infections has changed. First more folk not in high risk categories are tested but also, the elderly seem far better protected!

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What is the age distribution of new infections where you live?
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
The apparent change could also be due to more testing. Earlier in the year, only serious cases were tested and these were predominantly older patients.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
The apparent change could also be due to more testing. Earlier in the year, only serious cases were tested and these were predominantly older patients.
In the UK, however, they took that into account, I believe.

it makes sense. The elderly, (those older than I, LOL), are likely to be far more careful in self-protecting.

But the young, caged up in their homes, are now exploring freedom in a big way and flouting masks and safe-distance advice. So we can expect a shift to younger persons with COVID-19.

Unfortunately this again ups the environmental risks for the aged as infectious event-potential exposure per day would increase despite attempts to self-isolate.

Asher
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
The statistics I have seen in France and Germany point to "family reunions" as a large source of contaminations. I believe these "family reunions" are an euphemism for "large marriages", which indeed predominantly involve younger generations. Couldn't that also help explain the shift in age?
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
The statistics I have seen in France and Germany point to "family reunions" as a large source of contaminations. I believe these "family reunions" are an euphemism for "large marriages", which indeed predominantly involve younger generations. Couldn't that also help explain the shift in age?
Sure, it’s part of the same rebellious behavior?

Asher
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
All statistics tell a story. I came across a gang of "Unarmed Little Old Ladies" at the beach protesting Covid policies. They are a well informed bunch and well organized with a huge upcoming rally in Vancouver BC that should attracted a lot of attention! They are not happy about the fake statistics or any of the government policies. It was refreshing to see them out informing the general public about real facts as apposed to propaganda and false narratives.
 
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Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
The Center for Disease Control in Atlanta Goergia is the most respected and well equipped lab and agency for infection incidence, risk, spread, vaccines and new treatments.

There is no debate on numbers at risk or deaths. We know our margins of error.

They only count COVID-19 deaths when there is a positive lab confirmation of infection. It’s estimated that the CDC figures provided on incidence and risk undercount by some 20-30% at least. Truer ideas of the higher case incidence comes from “excess reported death” from any cause and this buttresses well the CDC lower data in the way the numbers track by dates.

The table below then only uses cases where patients hospitalized because of COVID-19 die, even though we know the true numbers are substantially higher. Still, the risk of them dying is likely very accurate.

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A good start for numbers only based on confirmed COVID-19 infection for Americans at risk for infection and at risk for death is shown here. It does not address and month by month changes that the UK health Authorities report.

It does not have “opinions” just the confirmed data.

It’s sobering to see that a person over 70 has a 220 times increased chance of death if hospitalized because of COVID-19 infection, compared to a 29 year old.

This is why folk need to think of risks to others when they refuse to take common sense precautions. It’s simply selfish and immoral for those at greatest risk to be considered just nuisance roadkill. In Spain they found old age homes abandoned by staff, with a proportion of the residents dead for days and the rest hungry!

Here in California we have about 39 cases of a diffuse inflammatory illness in children infected with COVID-19. Add to that a mortality rate in schoolchildren of about 1%.

The infection can be dampened by simple proven public health measures. It’s not complicated. Just decrease aerosols of virus to your neighbor!

Any one else here is also a professor of Microbiology, (or in some other way equally qualified) and an expert on virus, they are welcome to question recommended CDC procedures using evidence-based studies, but not on inspiration, politics or opinions.

Asher
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Those who cannot exert influence and power by demonstrating, still need to be protected by our decent respectful and considerate behavior.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
The statistics I have seen in France and Germany point to "family reunions" as a large source of contaminations. I believe these "family reunions" are an euphemism for "large marriages", which indeed predominantly involve younger generations. Couldn't that also help explain the shift in age?
Sure and at the same time, presumably the elderly have become super-self protective.

I have an older sister in a care home in London. No personal contact is allowed with outsiders, just the designated caregivers. My younger sister visited from the garden wearing the required mask. She was unrecognizable!

It at least the care home is safeguarding those in its facility!

Infection with COVID-19 in these cases is close to a death sentence!

Asher
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Presumably: yes. However these parties do not appear to be statistically significant. Maybe they take place in the outside?
Here at least, from each such big public event, we have seen a related significant rise in traceable cases: a Florida beach Spring Break, Trumps Rallies, Church Prayer in California, College Frat Parties etc.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
One post here was removed as it was “flaming” and also included the misinformation that “virus particles deflected back to the nasal cavity prolong infection“. There is no basis for that statement.

After 1 million dead world wide, flaming and trolling on COVID-19 will be removed.

I will still answer questions on Virus behavior privately where my knowledge basis merits.

Asher
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
Here at least, from each such big public event, we have seen a related significant rise in traceable cases: a Florida beach Spring Break, Trumps Rallies, Church Prayer in California, College Frat Parties etc.
That makes sense, but is not what I was saying. Obviously, each gathering is likely to increase contagion and therefore to cause some cases. What I was saying is that, for the total number of cases at the size of one country/state, the main contributor nowadays appear to be "family reunions" (in France and Germany, I don't know about the USA). Whatever the reason, this is an interesting fact if confirmed.

Remember that the USA had large gatherings under the theme "black lives matter". These gatherings did not appear to have produced a large raise in cases, did they?
 

nicolas claris

OPF Co-founder/Administrator
One post here was removed as it was “flaming” and also included the misinformation that “virus particles deflected back to the nasal cavity prolong infection“. There is no basis for that statement.

After 1 million dead world wide, flaming and trolling on COVID-19 will be removed.

I will still answer questions on Virus behavior privately where my knowledge basis merits.

Asher
Agreed! but why so small font? are you just whispering?
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
That makes sense, but is not what I was saying. Obviously, each gathering is likely to increase contagion and therefore to cause some cases. What I was saying is that, for the total number of cases at the size of one country/state, the main contributor nowadays appear to be "family reunions" (in France and Germany, I don't know about the USA). Whatever the reason, this is an interesting fact if confirmed.

Remember that the USA had large gatherings under the theme "black lives matter". These gatherings did not appear to have produced a large raise in cases, did they?
The folk in BLMare generally left wing and part of the ethos is to believe science and so there’s a tendency to wear masks. Remember that Nude woman, she did have a mask as did many other protestors.

We had a massive influx of protesters in Beverly Hills: again most wore masks!

Trump supporters tend not to wear masks following Trump’s belittling of such protection. For a man who got 7 deferments to avoid serving in the military it’s ironic that he poses as an “honor USA and Flag“ President so manly that he doesn’t need to wear a mask!

This “Labor Day”, Long holiday weekend will likely have a later fallout as a consequence of anti-science Trumpers at the beaches and at family reunions without masks nor social distancing.

For me, with a x220 risk of fatality from an infection compared to someone aged 29, I obey the rules!

My grandchildren frolic in the pool and I greet them from a distance and keep safe!

I feel that we might make more practical gains and progress in care of the critically ill with COVID-19, well before a vaccine.

I am shocked that so many small children are getting multi-organ inflammation and putting their young lives at risk. One of the advantages of modern medicine is that we look at the outliers, those with complications and then we realize What a lot we don’t know and then can start to ask the right questions!

We are going to have tens of thousands of children worldwide with long term health consequences, even though they get infected less and chance of death is less!

We have such a long way to go! Sweden only had 12% with evidence of infection. The tenfold initial downpayment in COVID-19 deaths compared to neighboring “Scandewegian” countries has not paid off. All countries now have the same level of past infection percentage of the population. Eventually we might learn something from this Behavioral study.

in South Africa it might be that poverty and past related COVID cousins might be protecting those in the crowded townships!

The truth is that we are still learning basics of the unique epidemiology and biology of this awful disease.

We had better wake up as we are in the age of both Global warming and serial Global Pandemics!

Asher
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
I certainly agree that we are still learning. Yet, the evidence so far points to increased transmission indoors, especially when people talk together at short distance. Singing together also seems an increased risk. Masks appear to decrease contamination.

We still appear to know little beyond that. There is also, at least in Europe, little evidence of significant risky behavior amongst the younger generation. There certainly is some, but not overly problematic. OTOH, the number of cases increased considerably in the areas where people went on vacation.

India appears to be the largest statistic sample as to contaminations go. Africa is a bit puzzling: South Africa has a large number of cases (but then it is winter over there), several other African countries do not report as much. We know little else about the situation in Africa and cannot really say whether the relatively low number of case is due to low reporting or to low contamination. South America reports large number of cases in the tropical and in the temperate parts (where it is winter).

Statistical studies are powerful, but easily fraught with study bias in early stages. I try to keep informed about research, but not that much is to be found yet. Should I find something interesting, I will post it back.
 
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