"Super-spreading" events play outsized role

[Jerome Marot]

New research about the statistics of covid-19 transmission: https://news.mit.edu/2020/super-spreading-covid-transmission-1102

The study of about 60 super-spreading events shows that events where one person infects more than six other people are much more common than would be expected if the range of transmission rates followed statistical distributions commonly used in epidemiology.
Many factors may contribute to making someone a super-spreader, including their viral load and other biological factors. The researchers did not address those in this study, but they did model the role of connectivity, defined as the number of people that an infected person comes into contact with. The findings suggest that preventing super-spreading events could have a more impact on the overall transmission of Covid-19 than expected from current models.

 

[Asher Kelman]

New research about the statistics of covid-19 transmission: https://news.mit.edu/2020/super-spreading-covid-transmission-1102

The study of about 60 super-spreading events shows that events where one person infects more than six other people are much more common than would be expected if the range of transmission rates followed statistical distributions commonly used in epidemiology.
Many factors may contribute to making someone a super-spreader, including their viral load and other biological factors. The researchers did not address those in this study, but they did model the role of connectivity, defined as the number of people that an infected person comes into contact with. The findings suggest that preventing super-spreading events could have a more impact on the overall transmission of Covid-19 than expected from current models.

This, Jérôme,

This is so scary! We are so ignorant!

I imagine we spend far more research money on eye and lip makeup than infection spread with these emerging viruses!

It’s so easy for folk to understand big budgets for missile defense, but germs being an existential threat?Harder to sell that!

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

It is difficult to design research on virus infection spread, because they have very different ways of spreading. Covid-19, in particular, does not appear to spread by surface contact or by water, etc.

What strikes me in the research cited here is that we know surprisingly little about humans as a social animal. If we take the hypothesis of airborne infection, we have no idea who is likely to contact hundreds of people a day at close distance and who barely sees another person every week or so. We simply do not know. There is some research, in particular for the transmission of STDs, but data is elusive for obvious reasons. Data is just as elusive about people living alone with no friends and little contacts, because we don't like to be reminded that such people exist and therefore they are not studied. In truth we are mostly in darkness about social patterns in the human race.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Jérôme,

it could be, for example, variation in salivary nasal mucosal proteins that could protect the virus and make it suspended in air in a more lasting infectious form.

But even pondering this will lead to major breakthroughs in science and sociology. Matters we didn’t ever consider!

Ashef

 

[Asher Kelman]

It is difficult to design research on virus infection spread, because they have very different ways of spreading. Covid-19, in particular, does not appear to spread by surface contact or by water, etc......

Jérôme,

There're so many graduate students around the world who need funding. I have no doubt that a set of questions could be published and scholarships offered to train these new scientist from the outset to focus on the new threats we face.

Such an influx would allow major established academic laboratories to expand with certain career opportunities ahead of them as we expand this field. Within 3-6 years we’d already Have breakthroughs as graduate students have new ideas and also allow the professors to push further with existing research.

At least Biden will reconnect us to WHO but with it we need money. This time from China too!

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

There're so many graduate students around the world who need funding.

Not at the moment if the student can somehow make the funders believe that the subject is somewhat related to covid-19.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Not at the moment if the student can somehow make the funders believe that the subject is somewhat related to covid-19.

I think that the National Institutes of Health, will I believe redirect emphasis to deal with expected following new agents to come and antibiotic resistant bacteria!

We have known for some time that we have to address these existential problems!

Asher