The Florida presidential primaries

[Doug Kerr]

The US state of Florida will hold its presidential primaries on Tuesday 2012.01.31.

The Republican primary will determine the composition of the Florida delegation to the Republican National Convention, where the Republican party's candidate for president in the general election will be chosen.

That delegation will comprise only 50 members, a reduction from the 99 that the state would otherwise have under Republican Party rules. The reduction is the state's punishment for holding its primary before the start date determined by the national Republican party.

In the Florida Republican primary, the contender receiving the greatest number of votes statewide will be awarded all the delegates (that is, all 50 delegates will be obligated to vote for that contender at the national convention). That obligation continues through the first three rounds of balloting at the convention (unless the contender earlier withdraws or "releases" his delegates).

For the Democratic party (for which we assume the incumbent president, Barack Obama, will be the delegate), the Florida delegates to the national convention are chosen at the state Democratic Party convention. The delegates to the state convention are chosen in county caucuses. The results of the primary election have no official effect on that process - it is rather like a "straw poll".

Best regards,

Doug

 

[Doug Kerr]

As you have no doubt seen, "Mitt" Romney attained a statewide plurality of the votes (46.42%) in the Florida Republican primary, and will thus receive all 50 of the Florida delegates to the Republican National Convention. That is, those 50 delegates will be obligated to vote for Romney through the first three rounds of balloting - if that many rounds are needed to determine the party candidate - or if Romney should earlier withdraw from the competition or "release" his delegates (perhaps in favor of a contender who had a substantial lead, but not yet the required majority, in the first round of balloting).

"Newt" Gingrich received 31.93% of the votes statewide. He however received a plurality of the votes in quite a few individual counties. The geographical distribution closely followed the "regional cultural" of the state.

Florida, the southernmost of the US states except for Hawai'i, of course traditionally held "southern" outlooks of society and politics. But the southward-extending "leg" of Florida (my term) - and in particular the areas around its largest cities, Miami, Tampa, and Orlando - has many residents whose background is from the northeastern part of the US. Thus the "leg", except for its central, more rural, part, tends to be more "northern" in its cultural and political outlook.

This model is exactly reflected by the pattern of counties where Gingrich attained a plurality of the votes: he won in the geographically northern (culturally "southern") counties, and lost in the geographically southern (culturally "northern") counties, except for the rural core.

Interesting.

Best regards,

Doug

 

[Doug Kerr]

The next event in the 2012 presidential primary cycle for the Republican party is its Nevada caucuses on February 4, 2012, and the Maine caucuses, which run from February 4-11, 2012.

Best regards,

Doug