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  • Welcome to the new site. Here's a thread about the update where you can post your feedback, ask questions or spot those nasty bugs!

The Good News On The Current Pandemic Crisis

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Unexpectedly, the assumptions of what had to be done each day have changed.

Wives and Husbands spend the entire week together now! Is that good? But honey, why does your tennis coach hang around so much when the court is closed?

Children have time with BOTH parents during the day.

But here is some special great news:

By the end of May 2020 the results of vaccine studies should show antibody rises and that will stimulate the markets like crazy!

By June 2020 there will have been results on the over 87 ongoing studies on antiviral drugs, that will start to give us hopes for prophylaxis.

Essentially what was achieved with HIV in two decades will accomplished in less than one year with COVID-19!

Asher
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
But there is much more. This pandemic has forced us to think of the need for joint world approach to existential threats like pandemics and the novel tools developed will generate branches of predictive genomic medicine and platforms for intervention, never previously even contemplated.

I am certain the tge smart young women and men all over the world will be far better prepared in the future.

So I am very optimistic today that all this terrible stress, disruption and loss of life will have forced us to update how we are going to live together safely in this very rare and fragile planet!

Asher
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
But there is much more. This pandemic has forced us to think of the need for joint world approach to existential threats like pandemics and the novel tools developed will generate branches of predictive genomic medicine and platforms for intervention, never previously even contemplated.

I am certain the tge smart young women and men all over the world will be far better prepared in the future.

So I am very optimistic today that all this terrible stress, disruption and loss of life will have forced us to update how we are going to live together safely in this very rare and fragile planet!

Asher
Asher
We had a similar situation some 10 years that can be attributed to open animal markets in China. Yet nothing was done about changing this behaviour. So we identified the problem and nothing was done about it.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
I really needed to see/hear something a little upbeat this morning.
Thanks for this.
No one imagine there was an alternative to mentally ill, foot flapping high-stepping sailors with syphilis.

Then sulfonamides and penicillin wiped it out!

My uncle died after a drunk night out as he caught pneumonia when his wife locked him out, (as she had promised him many times before)! Just a decade later, my mother was one of the first in the world to have her life saved by penicillin!

Smallpox? No doctors in the past 10 years have seen it.

As plagues appear we wipe them out.

The problem is that we have advanced to one global village. So an exotic wild creature brought to market in China essential brings new pathogens to all of us!

Now we know!

Since Ebola virus amazingly brilliant open source statistical and incredibly analytical software has been developed to help map, track and predict the virus spread and postulate the nature of new medicines to be built.

Previously, bat virus study was considered to be line stamp collecting or being able to boast a butterfly collection.

Now we realize that we must grasp a detailed understanding of the novel microbes in other species.

We are at the very beginning of automated rapid analysis of any new microbe that might threaten us.

Growth in tissue culture is 2-3 days and sequencing is another day, then it’s published openly on the web.

Immediately scientists in scores of different disciplines put it through their own software and we break down its secrets world wide in several weeks what would have taken a decade or more 20 years ago!

By looking at related sequences we can model likely intercepts to knock out these new agents!

Israel developed “The Iron Dome” to routinely track and eliminate thosecof thousands of incoming missiles that are otherwise going to hit homes, schools, nurseries and infrastructure. The rest make craters in open fields. So what!

We are at the verge, by convincing necessity, of the same advances in treating wild virus outbreaks.

I have no doubt we will succeed.

Just wait for the few weeks to go by and we will rejoice as at least one of the vaccine trials gives its first positive results with immune globulins in the volunteers blood

The joy will be Worldwide and its pretty certain.

Those spikes in the virus are essential for binding to our susceptible respiratory passage lining cells.

It’s not like influenza whe the antigens cycle in and out, rearranging every season.

With Coronavirus the coat structure is very stable. The single point mutations, (in ever second person spread), are unlikely to make ineffective, the expected vaccines to the virus capsid antigens.

In my mind, the disease has already been defeated, it just takes two years to implement the knowledge we have, as “gearing up” has not yet been accelerated.

We obviously need to accelerate the “gearing up” processes including shorting trials and production cycles! Tony Fauci has work to do here for sure!

But we now know the questions to ask.

Yes it’s painful, but we will be celebrating very shortly.

Asher
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Imagine, instead of the fashion industry tweaking skirt heights and necklines, wecwill have massive economy based on expanding investment in science and adjustments to banks of drugs!

The young minds of our children will reset the chess pieces and play long games we never dreamed of.

Without the plague there would have been no renaissance!

Meanwhile I am enjoying my wife being home. Last night we enjoyed our private performance of Dvorjak’s Cello Concerto played by Jaqueline du Pre.

Try it yourself!

Here

Asher
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
I really needed to see/hear something a little upbeat this morning.
Thanks for this.
No one imagine there was an alternative to mentally ill, foot flapping high-stepping sailors with syphilis.

Then sulfonamides and penicillin wiped it out!

My uncle died after a drunk night out as he caught pneumonia when his wife locked him out, (as she had promised him many times before)! Just a decade later, my mother was one of the first in the world to have her life saved by penicillin!

Smallpox? No doctors in the past 10 years have seen it.

As plagues appear we wipe them out.

The problem is that we have advanced to one global village. So an exotic wild creature brought to market in China essential brings new pathogens to all of us!

Now we know!

Since Ebola virus amazingly brilliant open source statistical and incredibly analytical software has been developed to help map, track and predict the virus spread and postulate the nature of new medicines to be built.

Previously, bat virus study was considered to be line stamp collecting or being able to boast a butterfly collection.

Now we realize that we must grasp a detailed understanding of the novel microbes in other species.

The good news!

Those spikes in the virus are essential for binding to our susceptible respiratory passage lining cells.

It’s not like influenza whe the antigens cycle in and out, rearranging every season.

With Coronavirus the coat structure is very stable. The single point mutations, (in ever second person spread), are unlikely to make ineffective, the expected vaccines to the virus capsid antigens.

In my mind, the disease has already been defeated, it just takes two years to implement the knowledge we have, as “gearing up” has not yet been accelerated.

We obviously need to accelerate the “gearing up” processes including shorting trials and production cycles! Tony Fauci has work to do here for sure!

But we now know the questions to ask.

Yes it’s painful, but we will be celebrating very shortly.

Asher
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
We are at the very beginning of automated rapid analysis of any new microbe that might threaten us.

Growth in tissue culture is 2-3 days and sequencing is another day, then it’s published openly on the web.

Immediately scientists in scores of different disciplines put it through their own software and we break down its secrets world wide in several weeks what would have taken a decade or more 20 years ago!

By looking at related sequences we can model likely intercepts to knock out these new agents!
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Israel developed “The Iron Dome” to routinely track and eliminate those of thousands of incoming missiles, that are otherwise going to hit homes, schools, nurseries and infrastructure. The rest make craters in open fields!

That’s a breakthrough in strategic thinking: in a protracted unavoidable war, you can’t yet negotiate away from, you don’t have to always defeat the enemy, just protect our societies from their weapons!

We are at the verge, by convincing necessity, of the same advances in treating wild virus outbreaks.


I have no doubt we will succeed.

Just wait for the few weeks to go by and we will rejoice as at least one of the vaccine trials gives its first positive results with immune globulins in the volunteers blood. Ext we will have candidate drugs for preventing infection in the first place!

The joy will be Worldwide and its pretty certain.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Great news for those of us healthy: you can’t get the virus in an open park or mountain trail!

So get the fresh air and enjoy your family.

Absolutely no mask is needed!


Another good news for those sick: we are harvesting effective immune globulins from the thousand of recovered patients.

These will no doubt save more lives.

We don’t have to invent this cure. It’s there for the taking. Chances of effectiveness: about 70 to 80%

Asher
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Asher
We had a similar situation some 10 years that can be attributed to open animal markets in China. Yet nothing was done about changing this behaviour. So we identified the problem and nothing was done about it.
Things are different now as younger folk will realize they cannot rely on the government!

Asher
 

nicolas claris

OPF Co-founder/Administrator
Great news for those of us healthy: you can’t get the virus in an open park or mountain trail!

So get the fresh air and enjoy your family.

Absolutely no mask is needed!
Asher
Asher, can you provide your source(s) for this?
We've heard the contrary yesterday on TV
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
Asher, can you provide your source(s) for this?
We've heard the contrary yesterday on TV

C'est simplement du bon sens: là où il n'y a pas d'humains, il n'y a pas de contagion. Les interdictions qui ont pu être données en France et ailleurs veillent simplement à éviter que 10 millions de personnes aillent se promener dans le même bout de forêt ou de plage, ce qui ferait de nouveau une foule et de la contagion.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Asher, can you provide your source(s) for this?
We've heard the contrary yesterday on TV
Oops!

It’s mainly my knowledge as a Professor of Virology and Physician.

It’s not in the air outside where there is not a sick patient having coughed in the last 4-5 minutes.

The air movement will dilute the virus rapidly and the UV radiation of the sunlight will inactivate the virus depending on how much sunlight there is.

So walking on a country trail or in a huge park and passing folk 2 meters is zero risk, unless they are coughing on you directly.

That is why one would go early to a park that is frequented a lot so as to beat any crowds.

But I will check with official sources too for a governmental declaration!!

Asher
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
There are quite a few of these "microbes", actually. Do you realise that we still discover new species of insects every other day?
Well said, Jérôme!

Of course, am aware of how common and numerous, diverse viruses variants are. That’s something I taught and can’t forget! I am a Professor of Microbiology in Virology!

But until 10 years ago, these, (beyond academic interest), were viewed as “exotic”” interests”.... as collecting “numbers” off trains in “Train Spotting” or in the case of a previous Emperor of Japan collecting butterflies.

Now, however, these new organisms are sequenced in a week and we look for codings for unique proteins and how they might function in cells.

So researchers today are already predicting behavior based on nucleic acid and capsid structure, coding for enzymes and need for vectors, so they can ask the simple questions like,

1. What if that came to us?

2. Would this make a possible safer model for study of related viruses dangerous to man and livestock?

3. Does this provide any insights to new candidate drugs, directly or indirectly?

So today, virologists, molecular biologists et al at last, have more employment opportunities after graduation!

Asher
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
Oops!

It’s mainly my knowledge as a Professor of Virology and Physician.

It’s not in the air outside where there is not a sick patient having coughed in the last 4-5 minutes.

The air movement will dilute the virus rapidly and the UV radiation of the sunlight will inactivate the virus depending on how much sunlight there is.

So walking on a country trail or in a huge park and passing folk 2 meters is zero risk, unless they are coughing on you directly.

That is why one would go early to a park that is frequented a lot so as to beat any crowds.

But I will check with official sources too for a governmental declaration!!

Asher

Lets not forget the impact of humidity in the air either.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Lets not forget the impact of humidity in the air either.
A great thought, Nim!

But, no effect likely here in comparison to the massively effective dilution effect of the air and the lightest breeze.

Before humidity could have an effect locally, that virus droplet is either on the ground or long gone!

But you would have to do tests to find out numbers!

Asher
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Good News For NY

1. Trial with Chroroquine, Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin will start next Tuesday in New York!

If they include enough people, I predict preliminary results in less than 30 days:

It could be spectacular!

It will change the mood of the Nation overnight!





2. Vaccine study in USA is progressing with so far no harmful effects to first volunteer!

My bets are on success all around! We could in the next several weeks.

We’ll know he made good protective antibodies by a challenge second shot within 3 months!


Asher
 

nicolas claris

OPF Co-founder/Administrator
I don't know if it's a good news…
At least not for me as my blood is type A…

Source: https://www.liberation.fr/checknews...gmentent-les-chances-de-contamination_1782748

The article presenting these results has not yet been published in a scientific journal and has not yet been independently reviewed, which should prompt some caution.

The researchers collected data on the blood group (A, B, O) of 2,173 patients hospitalized in Shenzhen and Wuhan following the consequences of a Sars CoV-2 infection. By comparing the blood groups of infected patients with those of a non-infected group, the researchers claim to have identified an abnormal overrepresentation of type A patients.


In the geographical areas studied, there is a similar proportion of people with groups A and O (around 33%). An over-representation of group A persons among the infected (here, 37.75%) and an under-representation of O (here, 25.8%) therefore constitutes a significant anomaly. Assuming that these results can be generalised, the researchers estimate that the risk of infection is 25% to 40% lower in people in group O.

According to the same work, the proportion of group A patients who died as a result of hospitalization is also higher than that of group O patients. Results to be taken with a great deal of distance.

The platform that prepublishes these data is categorical: such results, which are preliminary, should not be used to guide clinical practice, in China as elsewhere. Furthermore, as always in research, it is essential that these results be replicated by an independent team before conclusions are drawn. Indeed, it is by no means excluded that this first observation is due to chance.

Moreover, if these results were to be confirmed, there is still no proof that they can be generalised beyond China. Indeed, genetic factors specific to the populations studied could constitute a more relevant variable than blood group.

At the time of writing, it is impossible to say that blood type affects susceptibility to Covid-19 infection. There is no serious reason for patients of blood group A to be overly concerned, let alone for patients of another blood group to believe that they are immune. If these data were to prove generalizable in Europe (which is far from being the case), they would be most useful to health professionals to increase surveillance of serious cases of group A, or to refine models of epidemic spread according to the proportion of blood groups in populations.

Plausible results
Finally, it is worth noting that there is nothing far-fetched about this study. A correlation has already been identified in the past between blood group A and another coronavirus, during the Sras epidemic in 2003. This previous correlation is one of the reasons why this Chinese team set up the present study.

Blood groups are defined by the presence of specific markers on the surface of red blood cells, markers that can be found in other cells of the human body. In principle, it is possible that some of these specificities may favour infection by Sars-CoV-2, as this phenomenon was identified in vitro for the coronavirus responsible for the 2002 epidemic.
 

Doug Kerr

Well-known member
Hi, Asher,

Good News For NY

1. Trial with Chroroquine, Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin will start next Tuesday in New York!

If they include enough people, I predict preliminary results in less than 30 days:

It could be spectacular!

It will change the mood of the Nation overnight!

If some combination of these drugs proves "successful" as well as safe, will they be:

• A therapeutic to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on infected patients and hasten their recovery?

• A prophylactic that will reduce the susceptibility of a treated patient to infection by the novel coronavirus?

If the latter, would that suggest mass treatment with the drug(s)? How might that be administered/managed?

Best regards,

Doug
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
We are missing the greatest logistics capability we have:

1. The US Army: They have command and control, massive helicopters and manpower needed for everything including making materials and gear by order and distribution, field hospitals and kitchens!

2. Amazon and Walmart et al

3. Cities and States are hobbling along
 

nicolas claris

OPF Co-founder/Administrator
I don't know if it's a good news…
At least not for me as my blood is type A…
The article presenting these results has not yet been published in a scientific journal and has not yet been independently reviewed, which should prompt some caution.

The researchers collected data on the blood group (A, B, O) of 2,173 patients hospitalized in Shenzhen and Wuhan following the consequences of a Sars CoV-2 infection. By comparing the blood groups of infected patients with those of a non-infected group, the researchers claim to have identified an abnormal overrepresentation of type A patients.


In the geographical areas studied, there is a similar proportion of people with groups A and O (around 33%). An over-representation of group A persons among the infected (here, 37.75%) and an under-representation of O (here, 25.8%) therefore constitutes a significant anomaly. Assuming that these results can be generalised, the researchers estimate that the risk of infection is 25% to 40% lower in people in group O.

According to the same work, the proportion of group A patients who died as a result of hospitalization is also higher than that of group O patients. Results to be taken with a great deal of distance.

The platform that prepublishes these data is categorical: such results, which are preliminary, should not be used to guide clinical practice, in China as elsewhere. Furthermore, as always in research, it is essential that these results be replicated by an independent team before conclusions are drawn. Indeed, it is by no means excluded that this first observation is due to chance.

Moreover, if these results were to be confirmed, there is still no proof that they can be generalised beyond China. Indeed, genetic factors specific to the populations studied could constitute a more relevant variable than blood group.

At the time of writing, it is impossible to say that blood type affects susceptibility to Covid-19 infection. There is no serious reason for patients of blood group A to be overly concerned, let alone for patients of another blood group to believe that they are immune. If these data were to prove generalizable in Europe (which is far from being the case), they would be most useful to health professionals to increase surveillance of serious cases of group A, or to refine models of epidemic spread according to the proportion of blood groups in populations.

Plausible results
Finally, it is worth noting that there is nothing far-fetched about this study. A correlation has already been identified in the past between blood group A and another coronavirus, during the Sras epidemic in 2003. This previous correlation is one of the reasons why this Chinese team set up the present study.

Blood groups are defined by the presence of specific markers on the surface of red blood c
Source: https://www.liberation.fr/checknews...gmentent-les-chances-de-contamination_1782748
@Asher Kelman what do you think about this?
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
If the latter, would that suggest mass treatment with the drug(s)? How might that be administered/managed?

We should not forget that in the majority of cases, COVID-19 symptoms are not worse than a simple cold and that the infection heals itself in about 2 weeks. Mass targeting a population which is not at great risk with drugs which are known to cause side effects (as all do) does not seem reasonable.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
We should not forget that in the majority of cases, COVID-19 symptoms are not worse than a simple cold and that the infection heals itself in about 2 weeks. Mass targeting a population which is not at great risk with drugs which are known to cause side effects (as all do) does not seem reasonable.
We do not need to give any prophylactic to anyone compromised in any way, real or imagined.

We just need to slow down person to person transmission in a sufficient number of instances so that our health care systems are no longer overwhelmed.

Together with social distancing and making food and medicine distribution safer, just blocking virus growth in 30-50% of the population, could likely do the job.

I am trying to get to a person who can do the modeling.

Asher
 
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