NEW WORLD ORDER: Putin invades Ukraine

[Asher Kelman]

Now that the west, even Germany, have woken up and Sweden and Norway are thinking of joining NATO, there’s a shift in the contest.

The President of Ukraine has not only heroically rallied his countrymen in an amazing way, but has embarrassed the West to support him with arms.

He rejected USA offers to airlift him to safety saying “I don’t need a ride, we need arms!”

Asher

 

[Asher Kelman]

Also, the Ukraine is packed with Russian tanks, the need for actual rapid deployment forces division size!

We now will be forced to rethink Ground, mechanized war with Russia is a real possibility.

…..and the Russian Bear just woke up the sleeping American giant!!

Big existential mistake!

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

Now that the west, even Germany, have woken up and Sweden and Norway are thinking of joining NATO, there’s a shift in the contest.

Norway has been a member of NATO since 1949.

 

[Jerome Marot]

View attachment 9095​

Purely by chance, I found a wider crop of that image. Credit AFP.

But I still find the image puzzling as a photographer. There is almost no context, all one sees are 4 soldiers and a burning vehicle. There is a partially damaged wall, a steep slope and debris on the ground. One has no idea of the extent of the damage or where the incident happened. The soldier do not appear to be under enemy fire. The legend states this is in Kiev, but we see a dirt road, which are not that common in large cities. I also wonder what the trident symbol on the arm of the rightmost soldier means.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Purely by chance, I found a wider crop of that image. Credit AFP.

But I still find the image puzzling as a photographer. There is almost no context, all one sees are 4 soldiers and a burning vehicle. There is a partially damaged wall, a steep slope and debris on the ground. One has no idea of the extent of the damage or where the incident happened. The soldier do not appear to be under enemy fire. The legend states this is in Kiev, but we see a dirt road, which are not that common in large cities. I also wonder what the trident symbol on the arm of the rightmost soldier means.

I will try to find more info, but I believe they are Ukrainians collecting Unexplored ammunition!

 

[Asher Kelman]

As expected, Ukrainian defenders can hide, camouflaged, in streets and so easily attack infantry from behind.

See the fascinating Video here!

 

[Jerome Marot]

An analysis of the situation can be found here: https://www.understandingwar.org/ba...ian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-27

Excerpt:
The Russian military has likely recognized that its initial expectations that limited Russian attacks would cause the collapse of Ukrainian resistance have failed and is recalibrating accordingly. The Russian military is moving additional combat resources toward Ukraine and establishing more reliable and effective logistics arrangements to support what is likely a larger, harder, and more protracted conflict than it had originally prepared for. The tide of the war could change rapidly in Russia’s favor if the Russian military has correctly identified its failings and addresses them promptly, given the overwhelming advantage in net combat power Moscow enjoys.

 

[Asher Kelman]

An analysis of the situation can be found here: https://www.understandingwar.org/ba...ian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-27

Excerpt:
The Russian military has likely recognized that its initial expectations that limited Russian attacks would cause the collapse of Ukrainian resistance have failed and is recalibrating accordingly. The Russian military is moving additional combat resources toward Ukraine and establishing more reliable and effective logistics arrangements to support what is likely a larger, harder, and more protracted conflict than it had originally prepared for. The tide of the war could change rapidly in Russia’s favor if the Russian military has correctly identified its failings and addresses them promptly, given the overwhelming advantage in net combat power Moscow enjoys.

Great link, Jérôme!

Thanks!

The ground is still frozen but next week it will start to warm and there’s coming rain. Still it’s too early for serious mud to block resupply trucks that the Russian column need!.

The question is whether the fighter jets and anti-tank anf stinger missiles and Granada launchers from ex-Soviet countries and the EU are arriving fast enough and combat-ready to be usable before the 3.5 mile long column of Russian armore reaches Kyiv?

Obviously Russia knows details of all arms that are arriving and will resume an intensified offensive with more destructive power as soon as they have re-worked their logistics.

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

I would expect Russia to know the effect of spring in Ukraine. They live under similar climate. That spring is coming is hardly breaking news and that our press is presenting this way shows that they are either ignorant or disingenuous.

Now, if you read the linked article, there is a question which was not asked. Earlier in this thread I wondered why the internet is still working in Ukraine. Just as well, I wonder why Russia did not bomb Kiev. There were some limited strikes, but Russia has aerosol bombs (what the US calls "daisy cutters"), which could simply flatten the city. Even using less powerful ammunition, they could certainly inflige massively more damage than they are doing now.

The article does not ask that question but notes that the size of Russian attack was under-calibrated. Why was it so? Russia certainly knows everything about the Ukrainian army.

From this point on, we can only speculate.

Possibly, Russia was expecting the Ukrainian army to know about their massive superiority and quickly surrender or overthrow the government. This did not happen, but may still come out.

Possibly, Russia faces the problem that many of their soldiers see this war as a war against other Russians. It is one thing to bomb the Chechens, it is a different thing to flatten the flats of your cousins. If that is part of the equation, it lowers the capacities of the Russians considerably. We should soon find out.

 

[Asher Kelman]

I think that Russia was pretty confidant that just intimidation would frighten away an inexperienced comedian and his pals and that the already weakened and disintegrating NATO raisin d’dêtre and hence combined will, would mean no one with resources would help the fellow anyway.

 

[Jerome Marot]

That would be believable if Russia did not have intelligence services. But they have and Putin started his career in the KGB.

BTW, it is not clear to me how an "inexperienced comedian" became president of Ukraine. There is probably more to that story.

As to NATO, the US made it clear that NATO would not send soldiers to Ukraine. Incidentally, the US seem to be the country which benefits most from present situation. Not only sanctions disrupt the EU economy a lot more than they disrupt the US economy, but all of a sudden Europe is aligned with US policies and the gas pipeline which the US do not want is stopped.

 

[Asher Kelman]

That would be believable if Russia did not have intelligence services. But they have and Putin started his career in the KGB.

BTW, it is not clear to me how an "inexperienced comedian" became president of Ukraine. There is probably more to that story.

As to NATO, the US made it clear that NATO would not send soldiers to Ukraine. Incidentally, the US seem to be the country which benefits most from present situation. Not only sanctions disrupt the EU economy a lot more than they disrupt the US economy, but all of a sudden Europe is aligned with US policies and the gas pipeline which the US do not want is stopped.

Wrong reasoning, Jérôme!

Don’t think like ungrateful Europe, LOL! We want a strong Europe as commercial equals to buttress against an overbearing China!

Europe was simply financing the war machine of an actively expanding Soviet style empire from the current “2022-Spain-sized gas-pump state with 6,000 nuclear weapons!

 

[Asher Kelman]

“BTW, it is not clear to me how an "inexperienced comedian" became president of Ukraine. There is probably more to that story.”

Zelensky was just a popular TV actor and comedian who played a TV role of becoming president of the Ukraine!

Not a shrewd experienced statesman thought ever capable of combatting a formidable Russian President!

 

[Jerome Marot]

Wrong reasoning, Jérôme!

Don’t think like ungrateful Europe, LOL! We want a strong Europe as commercial equals to buttress against an overbearing China!

Europe was simply financing the war machine of an actively expanding Soviet style empire from the current “2022-Spain-sized gas-pump state with 6,000 nuclear weapons!

You may be watching too much US TV, Asher. First, Europe should be grateful to Russia as well, they lost over 8 millions soldiers and were responsible to most of Germany military losses. Second, the US is financing the actively expanding Chinese empire, so there is that.

As to Zelensky, I simply do not know, but the whole story is a bit hard to swallow. How often do popular TV actors become actual presidents in your books? Of course, I know there was one in the USA recently.

 

[Asher Kelman]

…..As to Zelensky, I simply do not know, but the whole story is a bit hard to swallow. How often do popular TV actors become actual presidents in your books? Of course, I know there was one in the USA recently.

That sounds like a Milosevic Serb or an Iranian new to the USA talking, 20 years ago, with their thoughts of CIA conspiracies.

But, Jérôme, perhaps, you already had some chosen causative schemers in your mind?

Who might these be?

Asher

 

[Maggie Terlecki]

Zelensky may have been a comedian, but people seem to forget the guy has a law degree. He may have done comedy, but he is not a simple clown. Although, I agree. He just wants the Ukraine to keep their independence.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Zelensky may have been a comedian, but people seem to forget the guy has a law degree. He may have done comedy, but he is not a simple clown. Although, I agree. He just wants the Ukraine to keep their independence.

I also was thinking about his law background. To have commanding humor one needs intelligence so his b.g. as a comedic actor can only help!

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

That sounds like a Milosevic Serb or an Iranian new to the USA talking, 20 years ago, with their thoughts of CIA conspiracies.

But, Jérôme, perhaps, you already had some chosen causative schemers in your mind?

Who might these be?

When I say that I do not know, I simply mean that I do not know. But running an electoral campaign takes money and the support of people. Each time a new politician popped apparently out of nowhere, I learned a few years latter about his or her money and support and it was not always the CIA.

 

[nicolas claris]

This debate about the Ukrainian president is absolutely insane.
Wherever he comes from he is proving that he is completely devoted to his country.
Period.
Whatever the reasons, invading a country should not be possible anymore, Putin has refused all attempts of political/diplomatic negotiation. This puts him in the ban of the world societies .

@Jerome You say that Europeans are indebted to the Russians for their attitude during WW2 (despite the German-Soviet pact), but we are also indebted to the Americans, Canadians, Australians, British to name a few. ...
On the other hand, according to your reasoning we should not accept the Spanish, the Italians and even less the Germans as Europeans...
You seem to forget that we are almost 80 years later and that the political, economic and military forces are completely different.

Saving Ukraine from its invaders is a difficult task when you listen to Putin's words and injunctions, the European leaders (who are in the 1st line in case of aggravation and extension of the war) are very cold-blooded (like President Zelensky).
For the time being, Putin has succeeded in getting Europe to speak with one voice (which is totally new), and this is already a defeat for him).

 

[Asher Kelman]

When I say that I do not know, I simply mean that I do not know. But running an electoral campaign takes money and the support of people. Each time a new politician popped apparently out of nowhere, I learned a few years latter about his or her money and support and it was not always the CIA.

….and what were the powerful source you discovered?

Asher

 

[Asher Kelman]

For the time being, Putin has succeeded in getting Europe to speak with one voice (which is totally new), and this is already a defeat for him).

This and COVID-19 are valuable annealing shocks to the European national mixtures that are needed to fuse them as one superstate identity line the USA and China.

Europe can’t go back to sleep after its 2 severe wake-up calls.

Germany should not close down its nuclear plants just yet. Europe should join with the USA in making safe secure nuclear plants for electricity for the next 40 years when fusion can come online.

We should supply low cost natural gas to Europe to replace the Russian gas that pays for tanks, bombers and missiles!

European children have to be educated to treasure freedoms and be trained to defend it as the Ukrainians are doing.

We in the USA need a strong EU and Scandinavia and Baltic States!

First we need to send you liquified natural gas at bargain prices!

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

….and what were the powerful source you discovered?

If I had discovered a powerful source, I would have cited it. What is so difficult to understand? I note that he popped out apparently out of nowhere on the political spectrum and got elected. I find this puzzling and wonder where the support and money came from.

This debate about the Ukrainian president is absolutely insane.

What debate? I am asking a question.

Whatever the reasons, invading a country should not be possible anymore

I agree to that.

@Jerome You say that Europeans are indebted to the Russians for their attitude during WW2 (despite the German-Soviet pact), but we are also indebted to the Americans, Canadians, Australians, British to name a few. ...

Certainly we are. Did I say otherwise? I just point out an historical fact which is often forgotten in recent times: we are indebted to the British, US, etc... AND Russia. And that is important as that historical fact is quite important to understand politics in the eastern part of Europe.

On the other hand, according to your reasoning we should not accept the Spanish, the Italians and even less the Germans as Europeans...

This is called a false flag argument, Nicolas.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Zalinski was already insanely popular from his star power and TV acting. He competed against a plethora of candidates. But he was articulate and already popular Abdul the country was fed up with poor government and here a great communicator offered a new vision!

Asher

 

[Asher Kelman]

HOW HAVE MINDS CHANGED?

The shock of this televised massive land war with thousands or armored vehicles invading a European country, will change for ever those carefree Europeans who took safety for granted.

Worse, Putin’s unspeakable hints at of use of Nuclear Weapons must be disorientating for everyone who assumed that no modern country would risk mutually assured destruction!

 

[Jerome Marot]

The shock of this televised massive land war (...)

This is why I don't watch TV.

And as a matter of principle, one should be careful and cautious about reports in newspapers, radio and television that say what you always wanted to hear. You have a built-in defense against news that you did not want to hear. Not against news that confirm your hopes. You have to defend yourself, check and analyse.

The media are not in the business of informing you independently. The media are in the business of keeping you coming back. The ones which tell you what you want to hear will make you come back. When someone tells you what you wanted to hear, they don't want to inform you, but to win you as a customer.

 

[Asher Kelman]

This is why I don't watch TV.

And as a matter of principle, one should be careful and cautious about reports in newspapers, radio and television that say what you always wanted to hear. You have a built-in defense against news that you did not want to hear. Not against news that confirm your hopes. You have to defend yourself, check and analyse.

The media are not in the business of informing you independently. The media are in the business of keeping you coming back. The ones which tell you what you want to hear will make you come back. When someone tells you what you wanted to hear, they don't want to inform you, but to win you as a customer.

Jérôme,

That’s largely true.

That’s why I have different news sources.

I read the Wall Street Journal, Haaretz, BBC, Times of London, The Guardian and then search for specific topics.

So, for example, when it was announced that Europe was sending a bunch of Mig 29 and other planes Ukraine pilots knew well, I searched further.

The countries that had to give away those jets flat denied they could allow that as they were needed for their own sir defenses!

But we still don’t get the truth as we must remember, that under US “Land Lease Program, pilots with jets were allowed to go on their ie in squadrons to fight for Russia and China in early World War II, prior to America joining the Allies!

I have no doubt that pilots from Italy, thr USA, U.K. & Israel would be volunteering for the Ukrainian’s “International Force” being formed right now.

It won’t be as much as we want, but it might be sufficient to add pain to the massive NW Russian column approaching Kyiv!

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

I read the Wall Street Journal, Haaretz, BBC, Times of London, The Guardian and then search for specific topics.

Whatever our particular sources of news are, we should exercise caution and restrain. Russia is known to have agencies employing vast numbers of people to produce fake news in social media and the press. Ukraine and western countries do the same when it serves their interests. It is also an information war. It is good practice to check the plausibility of what one reads. Often opening a map or comparing with historical events is sufficient to raise some doubts.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Whatever our particular sources of news are, we should exercise caution and restrain. Russia is known to have agencies employing vast numbers of people to produce fake news in social media and the press. Ukraine and western countries do the same when it serves their interests. It is also an information war. It is good practice to check the plausibility of what one reads. Often opening a map or comparing with historical events is sufficient to raise some doubts.

I agree.

That’s why I check how reasonable claims are. If Ukrainians were really getting ready to fly MiG 29s now, then that sitting duck 40 mile convoy would be annihilated.

Truth is that the Russians despite poor performance, only have to fire missiles from a distance and destroy cities rather than subject isolated armor to urban warfare.

 

[Jerome Marot]

That’s why I check how reasonable claims are. If Ukrainians were really getting ready to fly MiG 29s now, then that sitting duck 40 mile convoy would be annihilated.

Or not. Is there a sitting duck convoy or is that a trap to get some of the forces needed in the south to be relocated north? Russia primary objective is to make land contact with their forces in Crimea.

 

[Asher Kelman]

In my mind, how fast can we supply Europe with all the gas they need?

Then, the Spain-GDP-sized Russian economy gets really squeezed!

Asher