Jerome Marot
Well-known member
It would take a few years at best to build the necessary terminals.
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NEW WORLD ORDER: Putin invades Ukraine
- Thread starter Asher Kelman
- Start date
It would take a few years at best to build the necessary terminals.
Jerome Marot
Well-known member
Another remark on the subject.
It is quite interesting to check the Russian press, let us say the Pravda. I can't read Russian, but google will translate it to pidgin English and that is good enough.
Obviously, I am not using the Pravda as a source of reliable information, but just to get a feel on how the Russian population is (mis)informed. The comparison with our press is sometimes telling, even if I am not always sure of what.
For example: this US military think tank writes:
They (Russia) have also continued conducting operations in southern Ukraine along three diverging axes rather than concentrating on one or attempting mutually supporting efforts. These failures of basic operational art—long a strong suit of the Soviet military and heavily studied at Russian military academies—remain inexplicable as does the Russian military’s failure to gain air superiority or at least to ground the Ukrainian Air Force.
The Pravda gives a different view, as of course is expected. They write that the Russian military is dividing Ukrainian troops into "cauldrons", out of which they cannot escape. They write the army is doing that to force a surrender with less casualties.
The question here is not what the armies are doing on the ground, but why the descriptions are different. Each side may be right or wrong. Both sides may be wrong. But both sides cannot be right at the same time, because the descriptions are inconsistent. Furthermore, the US think tank is asking a question for which the Pravda gives an answer (to divide Ukrainian armies). But one would expect the US think tank to at the very least discuss the answer at hand, either to report it or to disprove it. But they don't report on that strategy. They just write it remains inexplicable. So either they don't check the Pravda (and then they are incompetent) or they don't report what they know (and then they are disingenuous).
My comment is about the Russian army using "diverging axes" and not concentrating on one, not on the army limiting casualties. We know that there are 3 fronts, we don't know about the casualties.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
I think the press are incompetent. I doubt that they check Pravda every day. I doubt they even bother to routinely translate German or French newspapers.
American news has to deliver its baked goods 24/7. That means drawing in audience and satisfying advertisers. To a considerable extent WSJ and NYT rely on academic, military and business figures to go deeper on issues. Some of them, no doubt are better informed and are fluent in one or two foreign languages and so occasionally Pravda opinions get read.
Intelligence agencies read everything, of course and then might feed tidbits to the free press.
That’s why I read the press from different democracies and autocracies as each had its own filtering.
Russian State media only has to tell one story. They are very effective as it appears that a good proportion of Russians interviewed by Western Reporters totally believe Putin’s story of a “forced war” and the heroic “humanitarian efforts” of their soldiers!
Asher
American news has to deliver its baked goods 24/7. That means drawing in audience and satisfying advertisers. To a considerable extent WSJ and NYT rely on academic, military and business figures to go deeper on issues. Some of them, no doubt are better informed and are fluent in one or two foreign languages and so occasionally Pravda opinions get read.
Intelligence agencies read everything, of course and then might feed tidbits to the free press.
That’s why I read the press from different democracies and autocracies as each had its own filtering.
Russian State media only has to tell one story. They are very effective as it appears that a good proportion of Russians interviewed by Western Reporters totally believe Putin’s story of a “forced war” and the heroic “humanitarian efforts” of their soldiers!
Asher
Jerome Marot
Well-known member
If that is true, the sanctions will not work.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
But the military know the truth. It depends on them and the power of the oligarchs. It will take a long time for an assassination plan unless it was already hatched.
Michael_Stones
Member
About Zelenskyy, Asher: if you read the Guardian, you missed this and other articles on the Pandora Papers. News that might be misconstrued?
On what I hope is a humorous but might be a prescient note from an earlier era: listen carefully then maybe invest in Lloyds of London.
On what I hope is a humorous but might be a prescient note from an earlier era: listen carefully then maybe invest in Lloyds of London.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
For sure, Mike,
Zelensky and partners made money in their successful TV show and movie productions. Living in an unstable society with government corruption, it’s not surprising that the new found riches get hidden in offshore companies. That’s Ukraine and not Canada! Rich people in the USA or Canada simply minimize or avoid taxes.
On more unstable societies, new found money is often distributed in banks or as real estate assets around the world! It’s hardly unusual!
Asher
Jerome Marot
Well-known member
The successful TV show criticized Ukrainians who moved their assets offshore, so there is that...
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Sure, that makes fabulous TV, like, sex, seductions and villainy!
We don’t expect it to be anything like Startrek, cowboy movies or Wonder Woman, all parable dramas reminiscent of English medieval itinerant actors who reached a village and set up morality plays on the village green!
By contrast, American TV is purely entertainment to draw in eyeballs to allow financing by advertisers, hardly part of some Biblical or ethics course, LOL!
People may still want to squirrel away their amazing windfalls in a diverse spread of secret places to prepare for worse days ahead!
Asher
Jerome Marot
Well-known member
The question is not whether the TV show was entertaining.
Corruption is and has been a huge problem in Ukraine. Zelensky acted in a successful TV show denouncing corruption. It made him popular and contributed to his election.
But the Pandora papers cited above would indicate that Zelensky is corrupt himself and serves another clique of oligarchs. It this is true, and at the very least it appears to be consistent with recent history, the present war is one between 2 cliques of oligarchs. I find that this theory is worth keeping in mind.
Corruption is and has been a huge problem in Ukraine. Zelensky acted in a successful TV show denouncing corruption. It made him popular and contributed to his election.
But the Pandora papers cited above would indicate that Zelensky is corrupt himself and serves another clique of oligarchs. It this is true, and at the very least it appears to be consistent with recent history, the present war is one between 2 cliques of oligarchs. I find that this theory is worth keeping in mind.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Ignore the wealth of the ruling classes. They have always been corrupt. This is an unjustified invasion of a sovereign country with massive cruel and shameful leveling of cities.
All kings, emperors, Kaiser’s, autocrats and Democrats in power too long are corrupt. But nations states are ethnic-cultural entities which must not be assaulted and ravished!
Asher
Jerome Marot
Well-known member
I am not in favor of Putin or the aggression, but I do not think we should ignore the level of corruption. There are many details which make little sense in this war. Knowing the motives of the parties may allow us to better understand the situation and somewhat better predict the outcome of the negociations.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
To say leaders are corrupt, adds nothing new!
I don’t mind the greedy leaders stealing. It’s part of the cost of governance.
What Russia has done, first in Syria and Libya, Chechnya, Georgia and now in Ukraine’s is put us back to the horrors of Napolian, Stalin, The Kaiser and Hitler’s immoral and unnecessary wars.
it’s a shock to the world that we are tolerating such ruthless destruction.
The USA is too timid.
We should institute a “Berlin Airlift” and order the Russians to keep the skies clear while we deliver aid!
Essentially, Matiopol is already nuked!
Asher
Jerome Marot
Well-known member
I think it does. Patriotic or fanatic leaders may start a war for irrational reasons. Corrupt leaders start wars for profit. The question thus becomes where is the profit? The disputed Dombass oblasts have coal and an aged industry, which are not worth the cost of a war.
Jerome Marot
Well-known member
I'll answer to myself here.
The press on each side paint Putin as a blood thirsty madman and Zelensky as a fanatic driven by his hate for Russians. If this were true, the war could have no end.
We certainly know that Putin has little care for the life of civilians. That is bad enough and makes him a brutal autocrat, but not necessarily a madman. Let us thus suppose that he is just a brutal autocrat and is motivated by his economical interests. What do we find?
First: the sea of Azov is of particular interest for Russia. It is the only exit of the Caspian sea (via the Volga-Don route) and therefore a vital shipping route for Russia oil and steel exports. It is essential for the control of Crimea. But, last but not least, there are gas and oil fields in the sea of Azov, more of them in the Ukrainian side. There are also oil and gas fields west of Crimea in front of Odessa.
From this we could imagine that Putin's main goal is the control of the sea of Azov and that his stretch goal is the control of Odessa. The Azov goal may explain the fight for Mariupol. The Odessa goal may explain the separatists in Transnistria.
If we consider these goals as possible explanations, we have a very different war than the one which is presented in the press. More important: from theses goals, we can predict how possible diplomatic negotiations could unfold. Depending on the combat situation, Putin may get the first goal partially, the first goal totally or both goals. To predict this, we need an assessment of the military situation.
The press on each side paint Putin as a blood thirsty madman and Zelensky as a fanatic driven by his hate for Russians. If this were true, the war could have no end.
We certainly know that Putin has little care for the life of civilians. That is bad enough and makes him a brutal autocrat, but not necessarily a madman. Let us thus suppose that he is just a brutal autocrat and is motivated by his economical interests. What do we find?
First: the sea of Azov is of particular interest for Russia. It is the only exit of the Caspian sea (via the Volga-Don route) and therefore a vital shipping route for Russia oil and steel exports. It is essential for the control of Crimea. But, last but not least, there are gas and oil fields in the sea of Azov, more of them in the Ukrainian side. There are also oil and gas fields west of Crimea in front of Odessa.
From this we could imagine that Putin's main goal is the control of the sea of Azov and that his stretch goal is the control of Odessa. The Azov goal may explain the fight for Mariupol. The Odessa goal may explain the separatists in Transnistria.
If we consider these goals as possible explanations, we have a very different war than the one which is presented in the press. More important: from theses goals, we can predict how possible diplomatic negotiations could unfold. Depending on the combat situation, Putin may get the first goal partially, the first goal totally or both goals. To predict this, we need an assessment of the military situation.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Well it seems that the chess board is being played on many levels. But the civilians who oppos the Russians are, for sure each very motivated to defend every square inch of land as Ukrainian!
Jerome Marot
Well-known member
They are just as motivated as the civilians who oppose the Ukrainians. Dombass has had civilians in arms fighting the Ukrainian army since 2014. I resent that the Western press is only presenting one side here. Don't forget that when China keeps Tibet in their country, our press accuses China to disregard the true will of the people, but when in Crimea 80% of the people voted in favor of Russia, the same press calls that a Russian invasion.
Not that I would know what is right for Tibet or Crimea. I just resent the inconsistency.
Not that I would know what is right for Tibet or Crimea. I just resent the inconsistency.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
“True will” of the people respected by China in Tibet? You have to have some special source of news!
The Tibetans certainly didn’t want China and the hordes of Chinese National imported to flood the areas with Chinese speaking loyalists to Beijing!
As to Crimea, the presence of native speaking Russians doesn’t justify one iota for a Russian invasion.
We have a majority population of Hispanics in Los Angeles, so would that justify Mexico invading?
Asher
The Tibetans certainly didn’t want China and the hordes of Chinese National imported to flood the areas with Chinese speaking loyalists to Beijing!
As to Crimea, the presence of native speaking Russians doesn’t justify one iota for a Russian invasion.
We have a majority population of Hispanics in Los Angeles, so would that justify Mexico invading?
Asher
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Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
For sure the citizen warriors in Ukraine are not shedding their blood for some ethereal plausible treasuring of “untapped natural gas resources” off their southern coast”!
They are fighting for their national sovereignty!
Asher
They are fighting for their national sovereignty!
Asher
Jerome Marot
Well-known member
The key point is that the Los Angeles hispanics did not vote to make California a part of Mexico.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
We cannot accept close collections of ethnic groups to vote themselves independance or else we would have Mexican, Vietnamese, Armenian and Israeli “Statelets”, just in Los Angeles county, LOL!
it’s not like sexual “Preference” where a man can state he’s now a woman!
Jerome Marot
Well-known member
There is an interview of Putin visible here:
To me, he looks severely ill. What would be your assessment, Asher?
To me, he looks severely ill. What would be your assessment, Asher?
Antonio Correia
Well-known member
Jerome... you mean mentally ill, right ? 
Antonio Correia
Well-known member
President Zelensky spoke to the Portuguese Parliament in a dedicated session with the absence of the dying Communist Portuguese Party.
I wonder why other countries victims of similar occupations and wars, don't take the same procedure.
I wonder why other countries victims of similar occupations and wars, don't take the same procedure.
Jerome Marot
Well-known member
Jerome... you mean mentally ill, right ?
I certainly agree that he is a brutal autocrat, but that does not mean we should entertain ourselves with the idea that his judgements are impaired. I mean he looks on the video as if he is in great pain.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
I would love to read a translation of Putin’s instructions! He certainly is gripping the table with his right hand as if to control his temper.
The recipient, at least more than 1/2 way through the video, doesn’t appear to have anything to say!
Asher
The recipient, at least more than 1/2 way through the video, doesn’t appear to have anything to say!
Asher
Antonio Correia
Well-known member
Sorry but I didn't find the translation to English.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Here is the entire speech translated to English!Sorry but I didn't find the translation to English.
Jerome Marot
Well-known member
Well... I did not need a translation to see that Putin was clenching the table with his right hand, that he kept his left arm immobile during the whole speech and that his head appears to be retracted into his shoulder. The way he holds his legs and moves his right foot are also surprising. This is definitely not the man we saw bare-chested, riding a horse to defeat a wild bear by his bare hands, as propaganda presented him some time ago.
To me this is the body language of a person suffering immense pain, of the sort painkillers cannot manage. But that is puzzling in so many aspects that I don't know what to think about it.
To me this is the body language of a person suffering immense pain, of the sort painkillers cannot manage. But that is puzzling in so many aspects that I don't know what to think about it.
Asher Kelman
OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Jérôme, you’re particularly observant!
it could be pain as you suggest or someone suffering from Parkinsonism, fighting the intention tremor and involuntary movements. But for sure this is highly abnormal!
That pain, you suggest, Jérôme, could be from widespread bone metastases for example from prostate cancer.
Asher