Omicron, data from South Africa.

[Jerome Marot]

As you may know, there is a new COVID-19 variant in South Africa, called omicron (the Greek letter). It is considerably more contagious than the previous variant, called delta (another Greek letter).

Considerably more contagious means "about as bad as varicella" (chickenpox and shingles). Varicella infects about 90% of the population of temperate climates.

Preliminary results also appear to indicate that the protection offered by available vaccine is reduced with omicron. Note that a reduced protection is still better than no protection at all, so please get your shot.

The ominous question is, of course, whether it is as lethal as previous variants. That, we do not know yet, but some preliminary results can be found below:

Thread by miamalan: BREAKING [Thread]: 1. SA’s first real-world ... - PingThread

BREAKING [Thread]: 1. SA’s first real-world data on #Pfizer’s #COVID19 jab’s protection @ #Omicron infection + hospitalisation via @Discovery_SA + @MRCza Note: This is data from the 1st 3 weeks of the outbreak, so it might change - regard it as preliminary real-world data

pingthread.com

 

[Asher Kelman]

It might be a blessing that Omicron displaces the apparently more lethal Delta strain and scares more folk to getting immunized.

Still, I wish they would make immunization compulsory like smallpox vaccination was in the early 1900s in the USA!

Also I would love to see a surcharge for unvaccinated who get Covid as they use a bed in the hospital that puts pressure on bed and resources for other folk sick with cancer or other illnesses.


Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

Compulsory vaccination is discussed in several European countries.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Well, I was wrong apparently!

Not such a clear blessing as the CDC predicts doubling of USA cases every2 days and soon 15,000 deaths per week. So the rate of infection overwhelms health resources!

 

[Jerome Marot]

Predictions are particularly difficult when they concern the future.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Predictions are particularly difficult when they concern the future.

What other predictions are there, Jérôme?

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

 

[Asher Kelman]

Ah yes!

I’m nostalgic for jokes!

 

[Asher Kelman]

Ah yes!

I’m nostalgic for jokes!

But nostalgia isn’t what it used to be!

 

[Jerome Marot]

Preliminary results about omicron would mean that infections are less severe:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1471823759497740298

HKUMed shows Omicron infects and multiplies 70X faster than Delta in the human bronchus, which may explain why it transmits faster, BUT also shows Omicron infection in the lung is significantly LOWER than the original virus, which may be an indicator of lower disease severity

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1471823759497740298

 

[Asher Kelman]

CDC says it’s far too early to know whether Omicron is in fact a weaker but more infectious pathogen.

What’s obvious is that we can only predict for those factors which are predictable!

 

[Jerome Marot]

Indeed we do not know. Preliminary results from South Africa are encouraging, but the population is young and it is late spring over there. What will happen with the older population of Europe and North America this winter may be different.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Recent indications from UK suggest little difference from Delta except rapid spread. We’ll know within 2 months, I expect.

Asher

 

[Asher Kelman]

Jérôme,

I did suggest elsewhere here that the Omicron variant could have evolved in an isolated chronically ill housebound person.

​

Well, South African scientists are now on that path of investigation. It does indeed appear that the variants do indeed occur as I suggested but in HIV patients not fully medicated so their immune response to Covid-19 is limited and they have continuous infection with Covid-19 mutating repeatedly in that one person, as I suggested! Read more here!

Asher

 

[Jerome Marot]

I am still not quite convinced.
I agree that viruses can infect a person with compromises immunity for a long time. I also agree that the longer a virus replicates, the more likely the mutations are.
But we are talking about a relatively long period where an individual was infected with a highly contagious virus. One would expect that there were a cluster of cases for months around that person. That would normally have been noticed, wouldn't it?

 

[Asher Kelman]

I am still not quite convinced.
I agree that viruses can infect a person with compromises immunity for a long time. I also agree that the longer a virus replicates, the more likely the mutations are.
But we are talking about a relatively long period where an individual was infected with a highly contagious virus. One would expect that there were a cluster of cases for months around that person. That would normally have been noticed, wouldn't it?

Isolated lonely fringe of society neglected people!

 

[Asher Kelman]

It looks more and more like my hypothesis is collecting support. Folk socially isolated with chronic immune deficiency, like inadequately treated HIV patients, can grow such Omicron-like multiply-mutated variants as fast as 15 days.

Asher

 

[James Lemon]

It looks more and more like my hypothesis is collecting support. Folk socially isolated with chronic immune deficiency, like inadequately treated HIV patients, can grow such Omicron-like multiply-mutated variants as fast as 15 days.

Asher

I suspect that variants that elude the immune system do develop in such people, but they come with a host of other changes that make them less able to transmit from person to person.

 

[Asher Kelman]

I suspect that variants that elude the immune system do develop in such people, but they come with a host of other changes that make them less able to transmit from person to person.

Not so, we have already several US and South African HIV patients that are well studied as incubators for infectious mutants!

Now it’s a matter of further studying this phenomenon!