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When will the market climb?

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Is there another English word? I used that word which is closest to the word we would use in French (Autarcie).
It’s an excellent word and once it’s recognized as new one can learn such a lot! Reading the Wiki article I referred to, allows a totally novel view of history, with villages and communes and even slaves in the America South forming self-supportive groups against total dependence on landowners, the elite and nobles!
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
Stock tip - buy low sell high.
Obviously. What is slightly less obvious is to define "low" and "high" and it seems that with the massive injection of cash in the system, the new low is higher than the old low and maybe even higher than the old high. Unless the world is turned upside down and what is low becomes high... maybe. Is that clear? 😷

In the mean time, the best fraud is in plain sight. Don't buy Hertz shares, even if price is low. You may never be able to sell it high.
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
Obviously. What is slightly less obvious is to define "low" and "high" and it seems that with the massive injection of cash in the system, the new low is higher than the old low and maybe even higher than the old high. Unless the world is turned upside down and what is low becomes high... maybe. Is that clear? 😷

In the mean time, the best fraud is in plain sight. Don't buy Hertz shares, even if price is low. You may never be able to sell it high.
Big Lies Matter!!!

Its going to the moon with more digital confetti.
 
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Jerome Marot

Well-known member
I don't think we know whether consumer demand can be pushed with money or not. I think we are in a new situation. Stopping the economy has never been done before. Prior recessions happened because consumers ran out of money, but this is not what happened with covid. At least in Europe, a sizeable share of the consumers stopped spending, so they did not went in debt, they simply stopped. There are also the negative effects that wearing a mask has upon the experience of "shopping" and the effect of the restrictions to tourism. We may call all this a recession, but that is a very different kind of recession.

As to pushing the price of the stock market by printing money, that obviously worked.
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
Yes we shut down the economy based on a big fat lie. That does not sit well with many communities. Prosperity without growth is an illusion. Where is the demand? Many folks can’t even afford to feed their families. Where is economic growth going to come from? More digital confetti equals more debt, less value and more homeless.

We live on a finite planet and living well cannot be about consuming more and more stuff and creating more debt. The quality of lives, relationships, and the resilience of our communities are suffering big time. Rioters, protesters, and anarchists around the world, against the system.
 
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Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
James,

Economic growth by accelerating production each year consumes more resources and poisons the water, earth and soul. That’s how the Mayans died!

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Read up on the Doughnut Economic Model by the English economist, Kate Raworth! Amsterdam is shifting its entire economic foundation to that new form.
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
We certainly live on a finite planet and world population is still increasing, but the question was about market climb. The latest figures from France would appear to mean that the French population saved about 75000 millions € during lockdown. Figures for other European and Asian countries are likely to be similarly positive. I know we are all more likely to hear about people who cannot afford to feed their families, but the macroeconomic reality is different. Some (not all) of that money is likely to be deferred consumption and the market is expecting the effects.
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
We certainly live on a finite planet and world population is still increasing, but the question was about market climb. The latest figures from France would appear to mean that the French population saved about 75000 millions € during lockdown. Figures for other European and Asian countries are likely to be similarly positive. I know we are all more likely to hear about people who cannot afford to feed their families, but the macroeconomic reality is different. Some (not all) of that money is likely to be deferred consumption and the market is expecting the effects.
December after Trump gets re- elected in November then the markets will climb.
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
James,

Economic growth by accelerating production each year consumes more resources and poisons the water, earth and soul. That’s how the Mayans died!


Read up on the Doughnut Economic Model by the English economist, Kate Raworth! Amsterdam is shifting its entire economic foundation to that new form.
Your Doughnut link does not seem to be working Asher?
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
James,

Economic growth by accelerating production each year consumes more resources and poisons the water, earth and soul. That’s how the Mayans died!


Read up on the Doughnut Economic Model by the English economist, Kate Raworth! Amsterdam is shifting its entire economic foundation to that new form.
Who will feed us Asher? Johan Rockstrom is known for Leading development on the Planetary Boundaries framework. The concept of sustainable development is nothing new. Kate Raworth may offer a great critique on the economy but where are her solutions?

Ironically agriculture was the main industry prior to the year 1750 before the industrial age. Yet agriculture has a huge impact on all the boundaries when considered from this point of view alone.

Climate Change, Ocean acidification, ozone depletion, nitrogen phosphorus fluxes, fresh water depletion, biodiversity, aerosols, chemical pollution.

“ In addition to crossing these planetary boundaries, the global agriculture system has other important adverse impacts. One issue is that the food system is also giving rise to new pathogens. For example, the industrial breeding of poultry causes recombination of genes of bacteria and viruses. When livestock and poultry mix with wild species, there are further viral recombinations. The interaction of the food supply with wild-type pathogens has probably given rise to several emerging infectious diseases, most likely including the frightening outbreak of the SARS virus in 2003.” Reference The Age Of Sustainable Development a book by Jeffrey D. Sachs.

So when will the markets climb? I view the stock market as a casino and a sophisticated form of gambling.

James
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
Earlier in this thread you noted that you made 42% in April.
That is correct Jerome and I also got out at price points considerably higher than that. It easier to sell when a stock is going up than it is going down. Timing is everything and there is a big difference in being a swing trader as apposed to an investor but heavy tax consequences. But in the meantime if you know of any weak bearish stocks that are outperforming the market by a minimum of 10%, please let me know. I have lots of cash to play with!
 
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Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
I accept the casino, metaphor but that can be applied to getting married, choosing a job or hiring someone!

As to gene exchange, in the coming decade we'll start large scale tissue culture production of beaf, pork, poultry and game and that means control of pathogens. Animals husbandry will be like the horse and cart in villages today.

Israel is already in an advanced stage in this mass food production technology and interestingly, "kosher" won't apply, as there are no animals! Its predicted that land prices for herds of cattle will drop as that will be like large scale production of candles after the electric grid comes to the country.

Asher
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
I accept the casino, metaphor but that can be applied to getting married, choosing a job or hiring someone!

As to gene exchange, in the coming decade we'll start large scale tissue culture production of beaf, pork, poultry and game and that means control of pathogens. Animals husbandry will be like the horse and cart in villages today.

Israel is already in an advanced stage in this mass food production technology and interestingly, "kosher" won't apply, as there are no animals! Its predicted that land prices for herds of cattle will drop as that will be like large scale production of candles after the electric grid comes to the country.

Asher
Assuming that we find a way to survive” the hard times and disasters to come.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Assuming that we find a way to survive” the hard times and disasters to come.
We have more epidemics, tsunamis, a few nuclear weapons going off, another meltdown in Russia and rise of dictatorships of the deluded left and right extremes!

Still we’ll survive as we have resilience, banks of seeds and DNA and smart minds!

Our biggest risks are from Nature!

Asher
 

James Lemon

Well-known member
U.S. regulators declared telecom equipment suppliers Huawei and ZTE to be national security threats. So what will the U.S do in this regard? If you don't want the CCP listening in on your toaster,and the other internet of things. Where will you buy your appliances? Even if you spend huge amounts of capital to build factories than can build things even cheaper it still wont do much for employment numbers. Considering the factories would be robotic with as few employees as possible.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
U.S. regulators declared telecom equipment suppliers Huawei and ZTE to be national security threats. So what will the U.S do in this regard? If you don't want the CCP listening in on your toaster,and the other internet of things. Where will you buy your appliances? Even if you spend huge amounts of capital to build factories than can build things even cheaper it still wont do much for employment numbers. Considering the factories would be robotic with as few employees as possible.
We are going to be giving our population a basic living wage, whether folk work or not. We just need more leisure activities and trash recycling!
 
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