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NEW WORLD ORDER: Putin invades Ukraine

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
In a shocking upheaval of status quo, Putin has followed the bygone path of Empire Construction, scrapping accepted post World War II commitments of UN members to respect territorial integrity and sovereignty of neighbor states.

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Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
lets see how this works out for Putin in the long run.
Steven,

Obviously Putin prepared for sanctions with a 600 Billion US dollar foreign reserves and a non expansive economy.

So yes, it has to play out a long tome.

The financial companies behind liquid gas markets have diverted a bunch of giant tankers to Europe.

This is a windfall in profits that will finance new Liquid Gas terminals in the USA and new tankers too.

Furthermore, the natural gas is being designated as “green” so dependence on Russian gas will be ameliorated over the next 6 months to 2 years.

Asher
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
So, where are we now after one day of Russian multi-pronged armored invasion of Ukraine?

They haven't made spectacular progress but have only sent in a fraction of their massed forces surrounding the country.

No doubt, US intelligence is providing information on incoming missiles and armor. Ukraine forces have not melted away under attack.

What will count is the West’s ability to resupply weapons, ammo, fuel and food after a week of conflict.

With Russian armor in the cities, Ukrainian guerrilla fighters with anti-tank weapons can do a lot of damage, even as the Russians advance, block by block!

So, if decapitating the Kiev government is not achieved with special ops/assignation units, then massive bombardment, as in World War II could lead to leveling of Cities!

Asher
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
The Budapest Agreement left Ukraine defenseless!


In all this horrible present situation, in retrospect, one has to ask, “What exactly did Ukraine gain by giving up Nuclear Weapons in the Budapest Agreement?

After all, The USA, Russia and The U.K. Guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in return!

Read more here!

Asher
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
As usual, the situation is a bit more complex than it looks. Russia had all reasons to oppose Ukraine entering NATO, which is what we were talking about last month. Western Europe is dependent on Russian gas and ships will not replace this any time soon. The US fought against the north stream pipeline, which coincidentally was just finished last month. Ukraine themselves did not see that project with joy as their economy is dependent on gas transit taxes. The eastern part of Ukraine greeted the Russian army with champagne (from Crimea, I suppose...), so the notion of "invasion" is a bit peculiar, at least in these areas.

In any case, the Russian army is massively superior to the Ukrainian army. So whatever happens will happen fast.

Here is an interesting link. How times change...
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Russia’s is tricking it’s one year conscripts as they illegally move them into harms way into Ukraine.

By law, Russian one year conscripts conscripts for military service cannot be sent to an active war zone. They first have to willingly volunteer for the professional army.

So officers are simply stamping their ID cards that they “volunteered”!
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
I have no idea whether mobile crematoria are standard equipment in modern conflicts. Do you?

In a nutshell: if you follow the news, you will be faced with such piece of information which, taken without context, are designed to stir your feelings against Russia. Even if Russia probably deserves these feelings considering recent events, these feelings won't help us.

The real situation is as follows:
  • the Russian army is massively superior to the Ukrainian army. This means that, whether we like it or not, the situation will be resolved in favor of Russia in a matter of days or, maybe weeks. That is partially a good thing as long conflicts correlate with higher civilian losses.
  • neither the USA nor Europe is able to do anything against it besides a few token measures, which are not likely to help much when the Chinese economy is willing to step in.
Now, the real question is: what is Putin's plan? He is obviously interested in keeping NATO's away from Russia's immediate borders, but what else? The plan could involve:
  • a simple solving of the question of ethnic Russians, which has been the reason for a civil war in Ukraine for the past 8 years. For that he can simply destroy the Ukrainian army and retreat in Russia, leaving two new "independent" republics in the east. This is what happened in Georgia and is still the most likely scenario.
  • changing the government of Ukraine against one which is favorable to Russia. That would explain present fights in Kiev. That one is a bit of a wild card, Ukraine's government is corrupt, seems to push the influence of the USA and there may also be personal feelings between them and Putin. When one digs a bit, Ukraine's politicians are a really strange affair.
  • restoring the USSR and Russia influence on satellite countries. This is far-fetched, but the USA is losing momentum as an empire and Putin grew in a world with 3 super-powers. On the minus side, that would not only involve replacing the present Ukrainian government, but also keeping Russian presence for a long time and Russia cannot really do that. On the plus side, Bielorussia is voting to change its constitution this week-end and allow Russian nuclear missiles to be stationed on its territory.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
“Live Updates: Ukrainian Fighters Battle to Hold Kyiv”

“The Ukrainian capital is transformed into a battle zone as Volodymyr Zelensky, the president, warned against false reports of his demise. NATO leaders said more troops would be deployed.” (NYTimes)


Zelensky has kept himself with his generals in Kyev and has proven to be a rallying g figure for the nation!

 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
The link you cited explains that it is probably soil disruption by heavy military vehicles and no cause for much concern. I would imagine the Russians know about Chernobyl, as they were deeply involved in the cleaning at great financial and human cost.
 

Antonio Correia

Well-known member
They are/were not worried about the potential risks but only the efficacy of the military action.

This reminds me the barrels US throw into the Pacific Ocean with nuclear components or the great, great, great problem Tesco has with contaminated water from Fukushima.
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
They are/were not worried about the potential risks but only the efficacy of the military action.

This reminds me the barrels US throw into the Pacific Ocean with nuclear components or the great, great, great problem Tesco has with contaminated water from Fukushima.
Probably correct. But they plan to stay in the area and don’t want the radiation to be drifting over Russia again!
 

Jerome Marot

Well-known member
Don't you find it a bit surprising that communication infrastructure including the Internet is still working in Ukraine?
 

Asher Kelman

OPF Owner/Editor-in-Chief
Don't you find it a bit surprising that communication infrastructure including the Internet is still working in Ukraine?
The Russians thought they were going to control the cities in two days and install a Moscow friendly government right away, so they wanted to keep everything intact as possible!

But if they are bogged down, their tanks are sitting ducts for the brave home defenders with newly supplied armor piercing weapons pouring in daily in increasing numbers.


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