Covid 19 Lockdown

[Asher Kelman]

James,

Without diverting Jérôme’s key question, let me provide two expert and reasonable considerations, diminishing the dismissive concept of merely “kicking the can down the road” by the control measures they are temporally disruptive and so irksome.

1. With reducing infection rate to others to below 1.0 infection stops! Israel with a sudden mass infection logarithmic growth did that in weeks! There is a much , much smaller Can!

2. The UK vaccine is likely ready for its population in September. By June next year there will be in all likelihood, with a probability of 75% conservatively, several more. One of them will likely be safe and used globally.

Asher


3. We are bright enough to retool!

 

[James Lemon]

James, it seems I was not clear enough.

I am not interested in arguing about which strategy is the best against covid-19. I never was and I made abundantly clear so. The reason I am not interested has nothing to do with you, I am not interested because the answer is impossible to prove or disprove.
'

I don't like being on a sinking ship Jerome. Lock-downs don't work,the burden of proof is to show that they do,especially if you want to trample on civil liberties. There should be some evidence to do so? Since lock-downs are being lifted in places and extended in others, and were meant to slow the spread its a worthwhile subject,but we should define what lock-downs are and the differences between policy,travel restrictions, quarantine, and such, ect,ect.

 

[Jerome Marot]

I don't like being on a sinking ship Jerome.

Then you should consider leaving the USA.

 

[Asher Kelman]

Or Canada!

 

[Asher Kelman]

James,


You seemed to have ignored everything I have written.


We can, (if we so choose), have metrics for every critical factor in lockdowns refined by real time granular data of population movements in diverse societal and regional sectors. Thus, for example, Israel shrunk the can. Now it’s rebuilding its economy.

There’s zero shortage of food production, but admittedly your oil prices are down and there are indeed severe delays to market of new watches and shades of lipstick. So what?

There have been huge ecological and health benefits to the lockdowns. Transportation in many UK towns is turning green with major thoroughfares diverted to cycling! The air is cleaner!

The sky didn’t fall as we paused industrial churning!

Asher

 

[James Lemon]

Then you should consider leaving the USA.

I am not worried Jerome. What is most troubling is that governments are continuing to make public policy based on flawed expert predictions and models. Specifically the the initial Neil Ferguson unpublished report and the University of Washington. We have more data than a month ago and I want want a critical display of judgment from our policy makers based on current data not on some flawed predictions and models. That is the current situation as it stands but I live in Canada not the USA and I am not hiding in my basement.

 

[Jerome Marot]

So you own a house with a basement? What are you using the basement for? If I had a basement, I would probably build a photo lab and try some old processes. Sounds tempting?

 

[James Lemon]

James,


You seemed to have ignored everything I have written.


We can, (if we so choose), have metrics for every critical factor in lockdowns refined by real time granular data of population movements in diverse societal and regional sectors. Thus, for example, Israel shrunk the can. Now it’s rebuilding its economy.

There’s zero shortage of food production, but admittedly your oil prices are down and there are indeed severe delays to market of new watches and shades of lipstick. So what?

There have been huge ecological and health benefits to the lockdowns. Transportation in many UK towns is turning green with major thoroughfares diverted to cycling! The air is cleaner!

The sky didn’t fall as we paused industrial churning!

Asher

No i have not ignored your insight Asher. I am waiting for a "Big Parade" to happen and not holding my breath for any vaccine!

 

[James Lemon]

So you own a house with a basement? What are you using the basement for? If I had a basement, I would probably build a photo lab and try some old processes. Sounds tempting?

Yes the basement consists of two garages an office and laundry facility. Part of it is unfinished with plumbing for a bathroom, recreation room,bedroom but mostly unfinished. I store unwrapped B&W paintings and other miscellaneous items down there that collect dust. I have plans to build another bathroom but was considering leaving most of it unfinished and using it to make abstract oil paintings and splash paint everywhere,including the floor. Essentially I want to mess it up more than it already is.

 

[Asher Kelman]

No i have not ignored your insight Asher. I am waiting for a "Big Parade" to happen and not holding my breath for any vaccine!

What do you mean by a “big parade” and do you now “get it” and finally accept the reducing the “R” value gets herd immunity at a far lower level of persons infected?

I talk to you not as one with a baseless opinion. Rather as a trained Virologist and physician with decades of experience in the lab and in treating a smallpox epidemic breakout, first hand in Africa.

If you again refuse to address the clear proven consequences of reducing local and loco-regional “R” factors, it appears that your intent is to be “entertainingly contrary and flippant” like a Trump syncophant!

So can now you acknowledge, once and for all that decreasing the “R” factor shrinks the problem, not merely delays the inevitable as the “can” kicked down the road is smaller, (if that community so decides to have effective containment and isolation measures)

.....and the death cost is lower too?

And, James,

Why on earth would you “hold your breath” for a vaccine?

Do to you keep up with the news on this key challenge?

We already, as of yesterday, have adequate first results from UK and American trials! So, what makes you think that we won’t get a vaccine by June of next year?

Answer specifically, befitting your rational capability, not with your acerbic and customarily dismissive humor! You do get an A+ for that evocative stagecraft!

Granted you have those cuttingly negative oratorical skills going for you!

......which I admit as powerful weapons as in Trump’s case, they felled countless Republican Presidential opponents, like wheat before a scythe!

But we are in a different sphere where only reality of verified facts matter!

That being said, you can put impressive “comebacks” aside this once, for me and unmask your perfectly competent rationalism, that’s more than equal to the task!

Asher

 

[James Lemon]

What do you mean by a “big parade” and do you now “get it” and finally accept the reducing the “R” value gets herd immunity at a far lower level of persons infected?

I talk to you not as one with a baseless opinion. Rather as a trained Virologist and physician with decades of experience in the lab and in treating a smallpox epidemic breakout, first hand in Africa.

If you again refuse to address the clear proven consequences of reducing local and loco-regional “R” factors, it appears that your intent is to be “entertainingly contrary and flippant” like a Trump syncophant!

So can now you acknowledge, once and for all that decreasing the “R” factor shrinks the problem, not merely delays the inevitable as the “can” kicked down the road is smaller, (if that community so decides to have effective containment and isolation measures)

.....and the death cost is lower too?

And, James,

Why on earth would you “hold your breath” for a vaccine?

Do to you keep up with the news on this key challenge?

We already, as of yesterday, have adequate first results from UK and American trials! So, what makes you think that we won’t get a vaccine by June of next year?

Answer specifically, befitting your rational capability, not with your acerbic and customarily dismissive humor! You do get an A+ for that evocative stagecraft!

Granted you have those cuttingly negative oratorical skills going for you!

......which I admit as powerful weapons as in Trump’s case, they felled countless Republican Presidential opponents, like wheat before a scythe!

But we are in a different sphere where only reality of verified facts matter!

That being said, you can put impressive “comebacks” aside this once, for me and unmask your perfectly competent rationalism, that’s more than equal to the task!

Asher

Asher

R0 is easily subject to misrepresentation, misinterpretation, and misapplication. The world acted upon flawed data and continue to make policy based on it. You should look up some of Professor Neil Ferguson's past predictions, not a good track record. How is it he produced grossly flawed data? I don't know but maybe we can chalk it up to misinterpretation and he simply thought the whole world lived together in my basement.

" I have been complimented many times and they always embarrass me; I always feel that they have not said enough. (Mark Twain)

 

[Asher Kelman]

Asher

R0 is easily subject to misrepresentation, misinterpretation, and misapplication. The world acted upon flawed data and continue to make policy based on it. You should look up some of Professor Neil Ferguson's past predictions, not a good track record. How is it he produced grossly flawed data? I don't know but maybe we can chalk it up to misinterpretation and he simply thought the whole world lived together in my basement.

" I have been complimented many times and they always embarrass me; I always feel that they have not said enough. (Mark Twain)

Address just one country facing a devastating logarithmic spread of COVID-19 by those who ignored social distancing, where the government actually took charge, then you can deal with facts.

That’s why I provided Israel, as the facts are readily available in granular detail. You don't need to deal with Ferguson’s imagination.

With the actual granular data freely available from one state, I gave Israel, as a modern technological information savvy society, where everyone who needed to be tracked and isolated, was traced and found and so it was proved that these very restrictive interventions in daily life actually totally crushed a major totally documented outbreak.

Read that up before replying, so you can discard the weak arguments of “misinterpretation, misrepresentation and misapplication” your reflex debating rhetoric once again conjured up. Otherwise a reply serves no point!

From now on, discussion must be confined now to real data: nothing theoretical is allowed any longer.

When you have grasped the factual Israeli success in shrinking the “can” and crushing the COVID-19 curves, then you get to pick another authoritarian country who tried the same strategies.

..and don’t think of even mentioning socially responsible Sweden who used self discipline and in consequence suffered 10 X the deaths as in neighboring Nordic States were social containment was ordered!

Just deal with the facts. It’s all published.

This is a good start!

Asher

 

[Asher Kelman]

Just to be clear, I am not trying to prove any point. Just providing information on what has been proven by others.

Likewise, I am not seeking to win any argument. Rather wearing my professorial cap, I attempt to provide information that allows leveling of the playing field with a foundation of facts.

After, everyone can hold their own diverse opinions on how much restriction in freedom society should be willing to trade away in the next 12 months to save lives of how many others!

 

[James Lemon]

Address just one country facing a devastating logarithmic spread of COVID-19 by those who ignored social distancing, where the government actually took charge, then you can deal with facts.

That’s why I provided Israel, as the facts are readily available in granular detail. You don't need to deal with Ferguson’s imagination.

With the actual granular data freely available from one state, I gave Israel, as a modern technological information savvy society, where everyone who needed to be tracked and isolated, was traced and found and so it was proved that these very restrictive interventions in daily life actually totally crushed a major totally documented outbreak.

Read that up before replying, so you can discard the weak arguments of “misinterpretation, misrepresentation and misapplication” your reflex debating rhetoric once again conjured up. Otherwise a reply serves no point!

From now on, discussion must be confined now to real data: nothing theoretical is allowed any longer.

When you have grasped the factual Israeli success in shrinking the “can” and crushing the COVID-19 curves, then you get to pick another authoritarian country who tried the same strategies.

..and don’t think of even mentioning socially responsible Sweden who used self discipline and in consequence suffered 10 X the deaths as in neighboring Nordic States were social containment was ordered!

Just deal with the facts. It’s all published.

This is a good start!

Asher

Asher

The reason I am not up on the vaccine thing is because we don’t need one. Sure it would be nice to have one! Why should I be worried about a flu during regular flu season?

Am I supposed to believe that this virus somehow behaves different from one country to the next?

1 “An initial phase of slow, usually often undetectable, accumulation of new infections.

2 A second phase of rapid growth in cases of infection, disease, and death.

3 An eventual slowing of transmission due to a decreasing of susceptible in the population, leading typically to the termination of the first epidemic wave

Epidemiological theory indicates that the ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 will conform to this pattern [the three stages]”.

It peaks, goes down, and would be over, without any interventions.

I don’t know how they are treating patients in Sweden, Iceland ,Norway, or Belarus compared to Israel. But in New York it’s probably unfortunate that they didn’t run out of ventilators by the sound of it.

I can tell you what these Countries are not doing and that’s what is important.



“Very sensibly, the Swedish public health authority has surveyed the prevalence of infections by the SARS-COV-2 virus in Stockholm County, the earliest in Sweden hit by COVID-19. They thereby estimated that 17% of the population would have been infected by 11 April, rising to 25% by 1 May 2020.[5] Yet recorded new cases had stopped increasing by 11 April , as had net hospital admissions,[6] and both measures have fallen significantly since. That pattern indicates that the herd immunity threshold had been reached by 11 April, at which point only 17% of the population appear to have been infected.”

“How can it be true that the herd immunity threshold has been reached in Stockholm County with only about 17% of the population having been infected, while an R0 of 2.0 is normally taken to imply a HIT of 50%?”

Best, regards
James

 

[Jerome Marot]

leaving most of it unfinished and using it to make abstract oil paintings and splash paint everywhere,including the floor.

So you are a painter too, in addition to photographer? Can you show some of the paintings here? Have you participated in exhibitions?

 

[Jerome Marot]

The web site

https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/...covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought

derives a wealth of conclusions on the premise that recorded new covid-19 cases stopped increasing around the 11th of april. The following site shows that daily increase in cases was still over 7% at the time and is still significantly higher than other Scandinavian countries:

Coronavirus charts

Charts showing coronavirus growth in each country separately

mackuba.eu

The same site also imagines that Sweden had no lock-down. While it is true that Sweden kept the schools and shops open, the following site gives a timescale of the various locking measures implemented:

Europe Versus Coronavirus – Self-Discipline Rather Than Lockdown: The Swedish Strategy

Alice Baudry's Analysis, for Institut Montaigne

www.institutmontaigne.org

Basically, the Swedish government nicely asked their citizen to comply with social distancing measures in late March, early April. The population largely complied, which shows in economic figures as reported here:

New paper calls into question benefits of Swedish strategy

A new paper calls into question the economic benefits of Sweden's anti-lockdown strategy.

www.newsroom.co.nz

spending dropped about as much in Sweden and in Norway and at about the same time.

All this is consistent with the reasonable hypothesis that Sweden opted for a softer lock-down than similar countries and, consequently, had a higher number of fatalities and presently has a higher R0 than countries which have imposed a stricter lockdown. The benefits for its economy are not apparent.

 

[James Lemon]

The web site

https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/...covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought

derives a wealth of conclusions on the premise that recorded new covid-19 cases stopped increasing around the 11th of april. The following site shows that daily increase in cases was still over 7% at the time and is still significantly higher than other Scandinavian countries:

Coronavirus charts

Charts showing coronavirus growth in each country separately

mackuba.eu

The same site also imagines that Sweden had no lock-down. While it is true that Sweden kept the schools and shops open, the following site gives a timescale of the various locking measures implemented:

Europe Versus Coronavirus – Self-Discipline Rather Than Lockdown: The Swedish Strategy

Alice Baudry's Analysis, for Institut Montaigne

www.institutmontaigne.org

Basically, the Swedish government nicely asked their citizen to comply with social distancing measures in late March, early April. The population largely complied, which shows in economic figures as reported here:

New paper calls into question benefits of Swedish strategy

A new paper calls into question the economic benefits of Sweden's anti-lockdown strategy.

www.newsroom.co.nz

spending dropped about as much in Sweden and in Norway and at about the same time.

All this is consistent with the reasonable hypothesis that Sweden opted for a softer lock-down than similar countries and, consequently, had a higher number of fatalities and presently has a higher R0 than countries which have imposed a stricter lockdown. The benefits for its economy are not apparent.

The liabilities to the economy may not be apparent right now but it will be soon. The data reflects numbers for the county of Stockholm not the whole country of Sweden. I don’t think that they are fining families for rollerblading in the park either. The only accomplishment has been the slowing of spread and that has consequences down the road. Folks that don't comprehend the simple fact that all of this was based on a spook, can social distance all they want. The consequences will be far more reaching than just economic.

 

[James Lemon]

So you are a painter too, in addition to photographer? Can you show some of the paintings here? Have you participated in exhibitions?

No I am not Jerome unless paint my numbers counts. I have only been entertaining the idea of painting in the back of my mind for sometime. The paintings that I mentioned were purchased as original paintings from the artist. Its a long story but I never had intention's of hanging them. The paintings are very large and considered inappropriate by some. I did not hang them because most of the artwork that I have are on digital displays and I can change them at will instead of looking at the same pieces.